Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of diarrhoea among children younger than 5 years: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
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BACKGROUND: Many countries have shown marked declines in diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years. With this analysis, we provide updated results on diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) and use the study's comparative risk assessment to quantify trends and effects of risk factors, interventions, and broader sociodemographic development on mortality changes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: This analysis for GBD 2017 had three main components. Diarrhoea mortality was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive, Bayesian, ensemble modelling tool; and the attribution of risk factors and interventions for diarrhoea were modelled in a counterfactual framework that combines modelled population-level prevalence of the exposure to each risk or intervention with the relative risk of diarrhoea given exposure to that factor. We assessed the relative and absolute change in diarrhoea mortality rate between 1990 and 2017, and used the change in risk factor exposure and sociodemographic status to explain differences in the trends of diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years. FINDINGS: Diarrhoea was responsible for an estimated 533 768 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 477 162-593 145) among children younger than 5 years globally in 2017, a rate of 78·4 deaths (70·1-87·1) per 100 000 children. The diarrhoea mortality rate ranged between countries by over 685 deaths per 100 000 children. Diarrhoea mortality per 100 000 globally decreased by 69·6% (63·1-74·6) between 1990 and 2017. Among the risk factors considered in this study, those responsible for the largest declines in the diarrhoea mortality rate were reduction in exposure to unsafe sanitation (13·3% decrease, 11·2-15·5), childhood wasting (9·9% decrease, 9·6-10·2), and low use of oral rehydration solution (6·9% decrease, 4·8-8·4). INTERPRETATION: Diarrhoea mortality has declined substantially since 1990, although there are variations by country. Improvements in sociodemographic indicators might explain some of these trends, but changes in exposure to risk factors-particularly unsafe sanitation, childhood growth failure, and low use of oral rehydration solution-appear to be related to the relative and absolute rates of decline in diarrhoea mortality. Although the most effective interventions might vary by country or region, identifying and scaling up the interventions aimed at preventing and protecting against diarrhoea that have already reduced diarrhoea mortality could further avert many thousands of deaths due to this illness. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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The decrease in diarrhoeal disease burden between 2010 and 2021 was due primarily to progress in the management of its risk factors among children younger than 5 years.
“due primarily to progress in the management of its risk factors among children younger than 5 years.30”
From Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (2024) · cites this paper as [30]
The Results (page not provided) link reductions in under-5 diarrhoea mortality to changes in risk factors, including unsafe sanitation, childhood wasting, and use of oral rehydration solution. But the Methods specify an analysis of mortality rates from 1990 to 2017, not disease burden from 2010 to 2021; the paper therefore cannot establish the claimed explanation for that later period. Its Interpretation also says risk-factor changes appear related to the decline, rather than establishing them as its primary cause. (LLM, conf=0.88)
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- Authors
- Troeger, C. E., Khalil, I. A., Blacker, B. F., Biehl, M. H., Albertson, S. B., Zimsen, S. R. M., Rao, P. C., Abate, D., Ahmadi, A., Ahmed, M. L. C. B., Akal, C. G., Alahdab, F., Alam, N., Alene, K. A., Alipour, V., Aljunid, S. M., Al-Raddadi, R. M., Alvis-Guzman, N., Amini, S., Anber, N. H., Anjomshoa, M., Antonio, C. A. T., Arabloo, J., Aremu, O., Atalay, H. T., Atique, S., Avokpaho, E. F. G. A., Awad, S., Awasthi, A., Badawi, A., Balakrishnan, K., Banoub, J. A. M., Barac, A., Bassat, Q., Bedi, N., Bennett, D. A., Bhattacharyya, K., Bhutta, Z. A., Bijani, A., Car, J., Carvalho, F., Castañeda-Orjuela, C. A., Christopher, D. J., Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Daryani, A., Demeke, F. M., Deshpande, A., Djalalinia, S., Dubey, M., Dubljanin, E., Duken, E. E., El Sayed Zaki, M., Endries, A. Y., Fernandes, E., Fischer, F., Fullman, N., Gardner, W. M., Geta, B., Ghadiri, K., Gorini, G., Goulart, A. C., Guo, Y., Hailu, G. B., Haj-Mirzaian, A., Haj-Mirzaian, A., Hamidi, S., Hassen, H. Y., Hoang, C. L., Hostiuc, M., Hussain, Z., Irvani, S. S. N., James, S. L., Jha, R. P., Jonas, J. B., Karch, A., Kasaeian, A., Kassa, T. D., Kassebaum, N. J., Kefale, A. T., Khader, Y. S., Khan, E. A., Khan, M. N., Khang, Y.-H., Khoja, A. T., Kimokoti, R. W., Kisa, A., Kisa, S., Kissoon, N., Kochhar, S., Kosen, S., Koyanagi, A., Kuate Defo, B., Kumar, G. A., Lal, D. K., Leshargie, C. T., Li, S., Lodha, R., Macarayan, E. R. K., Majdan, M., Mamun, A. A., Manguerra, H., Melese, A., Memish, Z. A., Mengistu, D. T., Meretoja, T. J., Mestrovic, T., Miazgowski, B., Mirrakhimov, E. M., Moazen, B., Mohammad, K. A., Mohammed, S., Monasta, L., Moore, C. E., Mosser, J. F., Mousavi, S. M., Murthy, S., Mustafa, G., Nazari, J., Nguyen, C. T., Nguyen, L. H., Nisar, M. I., Nixon, M. R., Ogbo, F. A., Okoro, A., Olagunju, A. T., Olagunju, T. O., P A, M., Pakhale, S., Postma, M. J., Qorbani, M., Quansah, R., Rafiei, A., Rahim, F., Rahimi-Movaghar, V., Rai, R. K., Rezai, M. S., Rezapour, A., Rios-Blancas, M. J., Ronfani, L., Rosettie, K., Rothenbacher, D., Safari, S., Saleem, Z., Sambala, E. Z., Samy, A. M., Santric Milicevic, M. M., Sartorius, B., Sawhney, M., Seyedmousavi, S., Shaikh, M. A., Sheikh, A., Shigematsu, M., Smith, D. L., Soriano, J. B., Sreeramareddy, C. T., Stanaway, J. D., Sufiyan, M. B., Teklu, T. G. E., Temsah, M.-H., Tessema, B., Tran, B. X., Tran, K. B., Ullah, I., Updike, R. L., Vasankari, T. J., Veisani, Y., Wada, F. W., Waheed, Y., Weaver, M., Wiens, K. E., Wiysonge, C. S., Yimer, E. M., Yonemoto, N., Zaidi, Z., Zar, H. J., Zarghi, A., Lim, S. S., Vos, T., Mokdad, A. H., Murray, C. J. L., Kyu, H. H., Hay, S. I., & Reiner, R. C.
- Affiliations
- Haramaya University (ET)
- Australian National University (AU)
- Queensland Health (AU)
- University of Washington (US)
- Corresponding author
- Reiner, Robert C
- ORCID
- Blacker, Brigette F.
- Zimsen, Stephanie R M
- Abate, Degu
- Ahmed, Mohamed Lemine Cheikh brahim
- Alahdab, Fares
- Alam, Noore
- Alene, Kefyalew Addis
- Aljunid, Syed Mohamed
- Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M
- Anber, Nahla Hamed
- Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.
- Arabloo, Jalal
- Aremu, Olatunde
- Atalay, Hagos Tasew
- Atique, Suleman
- Avokpaho, Euripide F G A
- Awasthi, Ashish
- Badawi, Alaa
- Balakrishnan, Kalpana
- Barac, Aleksandra
- Bassat, Quique
- Bedi, Neeraj
- Bennett, Derrick A.
- Bhattacharyya, Krittika
- Bhutta, Zulfiqar A
- Bijani, Ali
- Car, Josip
- Carvalho, Félix
- Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A
- Christopher, Devasahayam J
- Dandona, Lalit
- Dandona, Rakhi
- Daryani, Ahmad
- Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen
- Deshpande, Aniruddha
- Djalalinia, Shirin
- Dubey, Manisha
- Dubljanin, Eleonora
- Endries, Aman Yesuf
- Fernandes, Eduarda
- Fischer, Florian
- Fullman, Nancy
- Gardner, William M.
- Ghadiri, Keyghobad
- Gorini, Giuseppe
- Goulart, Alessandra C
- Guo, Yuming
- Hamidi, Samer
- Hassen, Hamid Yimam
- Hoang, Chi Linh
- Hostiuc, Mihaela
- Hussain, Zakir
- Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi
- James, Spencer L.
- Jha, Ravi Prakash
- Karch, André
- Kasaeian, Amir
- Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J
- Kefale, Adane Teshome
- Khader, Yousef Saleh
- Khan, Ejaz Ahmad
- Khan, Md Nuruzzaman
- Khang, Young-Ho
- Khoja, Abdullah T
- Kimokoti, Ruth W
- Kissoon, Niranjan
- Kochhar, Sonali
- Kosen, Soewarta
- Koyanagi, Ai
- Kumar, G Anil
- Leshargie, Cheru Tesema
- Li, Shanshan
- Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King
- Mamun, Abdullah A.
- Melese, Addisu
- Memish, Ziad A
- Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese
- Meretoja, Tuomo J
- Miazgowski, Bartosz
- Mirrakhimov, Erkin M
- Moazen, Babak
- Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin
- Mohammed, Shafiu
- Monasta, Lorenzo
- Moore, Catrin E
- Mosser, Jonathan F.
- Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam
- Murthy, Srinivas
- Mustafa, Ghulam
- Nazari, Javad
- Nguyen, Cuong Tat
- Nguyen, Long Hoang
- Nisar, Muhammad Imran
- Ogbo, Felix Akpojene
- Olagunju, Andrew T
- Olagunju, Tinuke O
- Pakhale, Smita
- Postma, Maarten J
- Qorbani, Mostafa
- Quansah, Reginald
- Rafiei, Alireza
- Rahim, Fakher
- Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh
- Ronfani, Luca
- Rosettie, Katherine
- Rothenbacher, Dietrich
- Safari, Saeed
- Saleem, Zikria
- Sambala, Evanson Zondani
- Samy, Abdallah M.
- Sartorius, Benn
- Seyedmousavi, Seyedmojtaba
- Sheikh, Aziz
- Smith, David L
- Soriano, Joan B
- Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D
- Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale
- Temsah, Mohamad-Hani
- Tessema, Belay
- Tran, Bach Xuan
- Tran, Khanh Bao
- Ullah, Irfan
- Vasankari, Tommi Juhani
- Veisani, Yousef
- Waheed, Yasir
- Weaver, Marcia
- Wiens, Kirsten E
- Wiysonge, Charles Shey
- Yimer, Ebrahim M
- Yonemoto, Naohiro
- Zaidi, Zoubida
- Zar, Heather J
- Zarghi, Afshin
- Lim, Stephen S
- Vos, Theo
- Mokdad, Ali H
- Murray, Christopher J L
- Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe
- Hay, Simon I.
- Reiner, Robert C
- Venue
- The Lancet Infectious Diseases
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2020-01
- Volume
- 20
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 37-59
- ISSN
- 1473-3099 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7340495
- OpenAlex
- W2982702311
- Cited by
- 210
- References
- 4
- Citations by year
- 2026: 19 · 2025: 34 · 2024: 40 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 32 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 2
- FWCI
- 13.89
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- The Lancet Infectious Diseases (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
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- Funders
- Kuwait University
- Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
- Ministarstvo Prosvete, Nauke i Tehnološkog Razvoja (175087, III45005)
- Department of Science and Technology, Ministry of Science and Technology, India
- Public Health Agency of Canada
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Nursing › Nutrition and Dietetics › Child Nutrition and Water Access
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Viral gastroenteritis research and epidemiology
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health › Global Maternal and Child Health
- Keywords
- diarrhea mortality, children under five, risk factors, intervention, oral rehydration solution, child wasting, clean water, hand washing, mortality trends, Global Burden of Disease 2017, verbal autopsy, diarrhea treatment
- MeSH terms
- Global Burden of Disease, Child, Child, Preschool, Developing Countries, Diarrhea, Female, Humans, Infant, Life Expectancy, Male, Sanitation, Socioeconomic Factors, Global Health, Models, Statistical, Prevalence, Risk Assessment, Child Mortality
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