Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more populated world: a multi-model, multi-scenario intercomparison modelling study
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Mosquito-borne diseases are expanding their range, and re-emerging in areas where they had subsided for decades. The extent to which climate change influences the transmission suitability and population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases across different altitudes and population densities has not been investigated. The aim of this study was to quantify the extent to which climate change will influence the length of the transmission season and estimate the population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases in the future, given different population densities across an altitudinal gradient. METHODS: Using a multi-model multi-scenario framework, we estimated changes in the length of the transmission season and global population at risk of malaria and dengue for different altitudes and population densities for the period 1951-99. We generated projections from six mosquito-borne disease models, driven by four global circulation models, using four representative concentration pathways, and three shared socioeconomic pathways. FINDINGS: We show that malaria suitability will increase by 1·6 additional months (mean 0·5, SE 0·03) in tropical highlands in the African region, the Eastern Mediterranean region, and the region of the Americas. Dengue suitability will increase in lowlands in the Western Pacific region and the Eastern Mediterranean region by 4·0 additional months (mean 1·7, SE 0·2). Increases in the climatic suitability of both diseases will be greater in rural areas than in urban areas. The epidemic belt for both diseases will expand towards temperate areas. The population at risk of both diseases might increase by up to 4·7 additional billion people by 2070 relative to 1970-99, particularly in lowlands and urban areas. INTERPRETATION: Rising global mean temperature will increase the climatic suitability of both diseases particularly in already endemic areas. The predicted expansion towards higher altitudes and temperate regions suggests that outbreaks can occur in areas where people might be immunologically naive and public health systems unprepared. The population at risk of malaria and dengue will be higher in densely populated urban areas in the WHO African region, South-East Asia region, and the region of the Americas, although we did not account for urban-heat island effects, which can further alter the risk of disease transmission. FUNDING: UK Space Agency, Royal Society, UK National Institute for Health Research, and Swedish Research Council.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Matching the reductions in malaria prevalence over the next two decades may be challenging and the total population at risk of malaria is projected to increase over the coming 50 years.
“matching the reductions in malaria prevalence over the next two decades may be challenging and the total population at risk of malaria is projected to increase over the coming 50 years [42].”
From Global estimates of pregnancies at risk of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infection in 2020 and changes in risk patterns since 2000 (2022) · cites this paper as [42]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
The global distribution and burden of dengue
Bhatt, S., Gething, P. W., Brady, O. J., Messina, J. P., Farlow, A. W., Moyes, C. L., Drake, J. M., Brownstein, J. S., Hoen, A. G., Sankoh, O., et al. (2013) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature12060 · Cited by 10,037 · see citing works
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O’Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009 · Cited by 6,607 · see citing works
The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus
Kraemer, M. U. G., Sinka, M. E., Duda, K. A., Mylne, A., Shearer, F. M., Barker, C. M., Moore, C. G., Carvalho, R. G., Coelho, G. E., Bortel, W. V., et al. (2015) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.08347 · Cited by 2,181 · see citing works
Watts, N., Amann, M. C., Arnell, N. W., Ayeb‐Karlsson, S., Belesova, K., Boykoff, M., Byass, P., Cai, W., Campbell-Lendrum, D. H., Capstick, S., et al. (2019) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(19)32596-6 · Cited by 1,499 · see citing works
Self-citationThe current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue
Messina, J. P., Brady, O. J., Golding, N., Kraemer, M. U. G., Wint, W., Ray, S. E., Pigott, D. M., Shearer, F. M., Johnson, K. B., Earl, L., et al. (2019) · Nature Microbiology · doi:10.1038/s41564-019-0476-8 · Cited by 1,403 · see citing works
Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus
Kraemer, M. U. G., Reiner, R. C., Brady, O. J., Messina, J. P., Gilbert, M., Pigott, D. M., Yi, D., Johnson, K. B., Earl, L., Marczak, L. B., et al. (2019) · Nature Microbiology · doi:10.1038/s41564-019-0376-y · Cited by 1,393 · see citing works
Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Jones, B., & O’Neill, B. C. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084003 · Cited by 817 · see citing works
Sinka, M. E., Bangs, M. J., Manguin, S., Coetzee, M., Mbogo, C. M., Hemingway, J., Patil, A. P., Temperley, W. H., Gething, P. W., Kabaria, C. W., et al. (2010) · Parasites & Vectors · doi:10.1186/1756-3305-3-117 · Cited by 761 · see citing works
Thermal biology of mosquito‐borne disease
Mordecai, E. A., Caldwell, J. M., Grossman, M. K., Lippi, C. A., Johnson, L. R., Neira, M., Rohr, J. R., Ryan, S. J., Savage, V. M., Shocket, M. S., et al. (2019) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/ele.13335 · Cited by 742 · see citing works
Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution
Caminade, C., Kovats, S. R., Rocklöv, J., Tompkins, A. M., Morse, A. P., Colón‐González, F. J., Stenlund, H. C., Martens, P., & Lloyd, S. J. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1302089111 · Cited by 705 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate change could shift disease burden from malaria to arboviruses in Africa
Mordecai, E. A., Ryan, S. J., Caldwell, J. M., Shah, M. M., & LaBeaud, A. D. (2020) · The Lancet Planetary Health · doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(20)30178-9 · Cited by 365 · see citing works
Malaria eradication within a generation: ambitious, achievable, and necessary
Feachem, R. G., Chen, I., Akbari, O. S., Bertozzi-Villa, A., Bhatt, S., Binka, F. N., Boni, M. F., Buckee, C. O., Dieleman, J. L., Dondorp, A. M., et al. (2019) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(19)31139-0 · Cited by 363 · see citing works
Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change
Iwamura, T., Guzmán-Holst, A., & Murray, K. A. (2020) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-16010-4 · Cited by 329 · see citing works
A weather-driven model of malaria transmission.
Hoshen, M. B., & Morse, A. P. (2004) · Malaria Journal · doi:10.1186/1475-2875-3-32 · Cited by 305 · see citing works
Unexpected High Losses of Anopheles gambiae Larvae Due to Rainfall
Paaijmans, K. P., Wandago, M. O., Githeko, A. K., & Takken, W. (2007) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0001146 · Cited by 269 · see citing works
Nonlinear and delayed impacts of climate on dengue risk in Barbados: A modelling study
Lowe, R., Gasparrini, A., Meerbeeck, C. J. V., Lippi, C. A., Mahon, R., Trotman, A. R., Rollock, L., Hinds, A. Q. J., Ryan, S. J., & Ibarra, A. M. S. (2018) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002613 · Cited by 255 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate-Based Models for Understanding and Forecasting Dengue Epidemics
Descloux, É., Mangeas, M., Menkès, C. E., Lengaigne, M., Leroy, A., Tehei, T., Guillaumot, L., Teurlai, M., Gourinat, A.-C., Benzler, J., et al. (2012) · PLoS neglected tropical diseases · doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0001470 · Cited by 241 · see citing works
Climate Change and Aedes Vectors: 21st Century Projections for Dengue Transmission in Europe
Liu-Helmersson, J., Quam, M. B., Wilder‐Smith, A., Stenlund, H. C., Ebi, K. L., Massad, E., & Rocklöv, J. (2016) · EBioMedicine · doi:10.1016/j.ebiom.2016.03.046 · Cited by 228 · see citing works
Self-citationJuliano, S. A., Lounibos, L. P., & O’Meara, G. F. (2004) · Oecologia · doi:10.1007/s00442-004-1532-4 · Cited by 216 · see citing works
Grillet, M. E., Hernández-Villena, J. V., Llewellyn, M. S., Paniz‐Mondolfi, A., Tami, A., Vincenti-Gonzalez, M. F., Márquez, M., Mogollon-Mendoza, A. C., Hernández‐Pereira, C. E., Plaza-Morr, J. D., et al. (2019) · The Lancet Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(18)30757-6 · Cited by 212 · see citing works
Tompkins, A. M., & Ermert, V. (2013) · Malaria Journal · doi:10.1186/1475-2875-12-65 · Cited by 148 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate change may enable Aedes aegypti infestation in major European cities by 2100
Liu-Helmersson, J., Rocklöv, J., Sewe, M. O., & Brännström, Å. (2019) · Environmental Research · doi:10.1016/j.envres.2019.02.026 · Cited by 117 · see citing works
Self-citationIncreased Threat of Urban Malaria from Anopheles stephensi Mosquitoes, Africa
Takken, W., & Lindsay, S. W. (2019) · Emerging infectious diseases · doi:10.3201/eid2507.190301 · Cited by 109 · see citing works
Web-based climate information resources for malaria control in Africa
Grover-Kopec, E. K., Blumenthal, M. B., Ceccato, P., Dinku, T., Omumbo, J. A., & Connor, S. J. (2006) · Malaria Journal · doi:10.1186/1475-2875-5-38 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
Patterns and determinants of malaria risk in urban and peri-urban areas of Blantyre, Malawi
Mathanga, D. P., Tembo, A. K., Mzilahowa, T., Bauleni, A., Mtimaukenena, K., Taylor, T. E., Valim, C., Walker, E. D., & Wilson, M. L. (2016) · Malaria Journal · doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1623-9 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Colón‐González, F. J., Harris, I. C., Osborn, T. J., Bernardo, C. S. S., Peres, C. A., Hunter, P. R., Warren, R., van Vuurene, D., & LAKE, I. R. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1718945115 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
Self-citationLeedale, J., Tompkins, A. M., Caminade, C., Jones, A., Nikulin, G., & Morse, A. P. (2016) · Geospatial health · doi:10.4081/gh.2016.393 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Self-citationTompkins, A. M., & Thomson, M. C. (2018) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0200638 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Mosquito, the Virus, the Climate: An Unforeseen Réunion in 2018
DiSera, L., Sjödin, H., Rocklöv, J., Tozan, Y., Semenza, J. C., Súdre, B., Herve, Z., & Muñoz, Á. G. (2020) · GeoHealth · doi:10.1029/2020gh000253 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Self-citationSeasonal ensemble prediction of malaria in Africa.
Ae, J. (2007) · Europe PMC (PubMed Central) · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Romanello, M., Walawender, M., Hsu, S.-C., Moskeland, A., Palmeiro-Silva, Y., Scamman, D., Ali, Z., Ameli, N., Angelova, D., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., et al. (2024) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(24)01822-1 · Cited by 897 · see citing works
Self-citationDrivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability
Palmer, P. I., Wainwright, C. M., Dong, B., Maidment, R. I., Wheeler, K. G., Gedney, N., Hickman, J. E., Madani, N., Folwell, S. S., Abdo, G., et al. (2023) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-023-00397-x · Cited by 383 · see citing works
Allan, R., Weetman, D., Sauskojus, H., Budge, S., Hawail, T. B., & Baheshm, Y. (2023) · Malaria Journal · doi:10.1186/s12936-022-04427-9 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Gore-Langton, G. R., Cano, J., Simpson, H., Tatem, A., Tejedor-Garavito, N., Wigley, A., Carioli, A., Gething, P., Weiss, D. J., Chandramohan, D., et al. (2022) · PLOS Global Public Health · doi:10.1371/journal.pgph.0001061 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Synergistic role of CSPBP and SGS1 in sporozoite entry into Aedes aegypti salivary glands
Morvay, A., Araújo, H. R. C., Capurro, M. L., & Burini, B. C. (2026) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-026-46444-7
- Authors
- Colón-González, F. J., Sewe, M. O., Tompkins, A. M., Sjödin, H., Casallas, A., Rocklöv, J., Caminade, C., & Lowe, R.
- Affiliations
- Umeå University (SE)
- The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) (IT)
- Heidelberg University (DE)
- University of Liverpool (GB)
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- ORCID
- Venue
- The Lancet Planetary Health
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2021-07
- Volume
- 5
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- e404-e414
- ISSN
- 2542-5196 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC8280459
- OpenAlex
- W3182114573
- Cited by
- 455
- References
- 30
- Citations by year
- 2026: 69 · 2025: 111 · 2024: 115 · 2023: 90 · 2022: 59 · 2021: 11
- FWCI
- 27.47
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- erratum (2021-08-01)
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- The Lancet Planetary Health (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
- DiVA at Umeå University (Umeå University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- Swedish Research Council
- UK Space Agency
- Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine
- National Institute for Health Research
- Royal Society
- Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas (2017-01742, 2018-05973)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Parasitology › Vector-borne infectious diseases
- Keywords
- mosquito-borne diseases, malaria, dengue, climate change, climate suitability, vulnerable populations, elevation gradient, population density, global climate models, RCP scenarios, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, multi-model intercomparison, urban heat island
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Cities, Disease Outbreaks, Hot Temperature, Humans, Malaria, Climate Change
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
