Crude Democracy: Natural Resource Wealth and Political Regimes
Abstract
This book challenges the conventional wisdom that natural resource wealth promotes autocracy. Oil and other forms of mineral wealth can promote both authoritarianism and democracy, the book argues, but they do so through different mechanisms; an understanding of these different mechanisms can help elucidate when either the authoritarian or democratic effects of resource wealth will be relatively strong. Exploiting game-theoretic tools and statistical modeling as well as detailed country case studies and drawing on fieldwork in Latin America and Africa, this book builds and tests a theory that explains political variation across resource-rich states. It will be read by scholars studying the political effects of natural resource wealth in many regions, as well as by those interested in the emergence and persistence of democratic regimes.
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Any effect of oil on democracy is highly conditional on a host of contextual features.
“it appears clear to us that any effect of oil is highly conditional on a host of contextual features”
From Unwelcome Change: Coming to Terms with Democratic Backsliding (2018) · cites this paper as Dunning 2008
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Do natural resources fuel authoritarianism? A reappraisal of the resource curse
HABER, S., & MENALDO, V. (2011) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055410000584 · Cited by 1,128 · see citing works
Unwelcome Change: Coming to Terms with Democratic Backsliding
Waldner, D., & Lust, E. (2018) · Annual Review of Political Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-050517-114628 · Cited by 889 · see citing works
Gerring, J. (2010) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414010376911 · Cited by 279 · see citing works
Culture, institutions and democratization*
Gorodnichenko, Y., & Roland, G. (2020) · Public Choice · doi:10.1007/s11127-020-00811-8 · Cited by 134 · see citing works
“Ross (2001), Wantchekon (2002), Dunning (2008) and others provide evidence suggesting that countries rich in natural resources may tend to be less democratic (“the political resource curse”).”
Weigel, J. (2020) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1093/qje/qjaa019 · Cited by 166 · see citing works
“Related studies include Ross (2001); Jensen and Wantchekon (2004); Robinson, Torvik, and Verdier (2006); Dunning (2008); Ramsay (2011); Caselli and Michaels (2013); Brollo et al. (2013); McGuirk (2013); Ferraz and Monteiro (2014); Borge, Parmer, and Torvik (2015); Timmons and Garfias (2015); Chen…”
Natural Resources, Institutional Quality, and Economic Growth: an African Tale
Epo, B., & Faha, D. R. N. (2019) · European Journal of Development Research · doi:10.1057/s41287-019-00222-6 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
“Case studies also outline the importance of institutional quality in analyzing the effect of natural resources on growth (Dunning, 2008).”
BackgroundEconomic Origins of Democratic Breakdown? The Redistributive Model and the Postcolonial State
Slater, D., Smith, B., & Nair, G. (2014) · Perspectives on Politics · doi:10.1017/s1537592714000875 · Cited by 88 · see citing works
Liou, Y.-M., & Musgrave, P. (2013) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414013512607 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
“…that the curse is contingent on factors like institutional quality—or that there is no curse at all (Alexeev & Conrad, 2009; Cotet & Tsui, 2013; Dunning, 2008; Haber & Menaldo, 2011; Humphreys, 2005; Kennedy & Tiede, 2013; Luong & Weinthal, 2010; Manzano & Rigobon, 2001; Morrison, 2009;…”
Bearce, D. H., & Hutnick, J. A. L. (2011) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414011401211 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Contesting Autocracy: Repression and Opposition Coordination in Venezuela
Jimenez, M. (2021) · Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0032321721999975 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
“Other factors, including historical legacies, the nature of party systems (GrzymalaBusse, 2002; Weyland, 1996), economic development and/or commodity prices (Corrales, 2002; Dunning, 2008; Geddes, 1999) can further be expected to (dis)incentivize OC.”
BackgroundNational Oil Companies and the Future of the Oil Industry
Victor, D. (2013) · Annual Review of Resource Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-resource-091912-151856 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Foreign direct investment and the risk of regime transition in autocracies
Escribà-Folch, A. (2017) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2016.1200560 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Rethinking Intersections of Crime and Terrorism: Insights from Political Economies of Violence
Omelicheva, M., & Markowitz, L. P. (2021) · doi:10.1093/isr/viab025 · Cited by 18
Including Outsiders in Latin America
Garay, C. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108895835.004 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Fuel Subsidies Limit Democratization: Evidence from a Global Sample, 1990–2014
Fails, M. D. (2019) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1093/isq/sqy061 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Jakab, A. (2019) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3454649 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Economic Grievances and Civil War: An Application to the Resource Curse
Paine, J. (2019) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1093/isq/sqy065 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Inequality, Democracy, and the Inclusionary Turn in Latin America
Kapiszewski, D., Levitsky, S., & Yashar, D. J. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108895835.002 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Adekunle, I., Maku, O., Williams, T., Gbagidi, J., & Ajike, E. (2023) · Management of environmental quality · doi:10.1108/meq-10-2020-0241 · Cited by 10
The Impact of Oil Rents on Subnational Development: Evidence from Argentina
González, L., & Lodola, G. (2019) · Studies in Comparative International Development · doi:10.1007/s12116-019-09293-2 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
“…the new rules had positive impacts on illiteracy and access urban services. in the creation of wealth, while the majority is involved in the redistribution or utilization of rents (Beblawi and Luciani 1987: 51–52; Beblawi 1990; Luciani 1990; Karl 1997: 47; Dunning 2008: 23–114; Ross 2012: 45).”
BackgroundGlobal justice and global realities
Nili, S. (2016) · Journal of International Political Theory · doi:10.1177/1755088216629173 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
“For others, whether natural resource abundance promotes authoritarianism or democracy depends on the varying calculations of economic elites, calculations which in turn depend on other factors (e.g. Dunning, 2008).”
BackgroundThe Arbitrage Lobby: Theory and Evidence on Dual Exchange Rates
Gulotty, R., & Kronick, D. (2021) · International Organization · doi:10.1017/s002081832100031x · Cited by 7
“For example, Corrales 2005; Corrales and Penfold-Becerra 2007; Dunning 2008; Handlin 2017; Hsieh et al. 2009; Jiménez 2021; Kronick and Marshall 2019; Mainwaring 2012; McCoy 1999; McCoy and Myers 2006; Svolik 2020.”
BackgroundGender equality without democracy? Higher education expansion and authoritarian values
Suen, W. (2021) · doi:10.1111/gove.12580 · Cited by 6
Fuelling Misconceptions: UNEP, Natural Resources, the Environment and Conflict
Arsel, M. (2011) · doi:10.1111/j.1467-7660.2011.01684.x · Cited by 6
Natural Resources: A Catalyst for Conflict and Peace?
Beevers, M. (2018) · Peacebuilding and Natural Resource Governance After Armed Conflict · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-63166-0_3 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Lee, S., & Kim, C.-S. (2021) · Latin American Policy · doi:10.1111/lamp.12204 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Palmer‐Rubin, B. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108895835.014 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Brazil’s Participatory Infrastructure
Mayka, L., & Rich, J. A. J. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108895835.007 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Three Outcomes of Contentious Elections
Frank, R. W. (2020) · International Studies Review · doi:10.1093/isr/viaa078 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Oiling Congress: Windfall Revenues, Institutions, and Policy Change in the Long Run
Aldaz-Peña, R. (2021) · Journal of Politics in Latin America · doi:10.1177/1866802x211003306 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
“…resource curse literature, which has focused on other political outcomes, like the competition for power, democracy, or patronage (Ahmadov, 2013; Al- Ubaydli, 2012; Andersen and Ross, 2013; Dunning, 2008; Fails, 2020; Haber and Menaldo, 2011; Liou and Musgrave, 2013; Ross, 2001; Ulfelder, 2007).”
BackgroundThe Politics of Popular Coalitions
Etchemendy, S. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108895835.013 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Pathways to Inclusion in Latin America
Cameron, M. A. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108895835.017 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Boas, T. C. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108895835.012 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Reflections on Two Episodes of Popular Inclusion
Collier, R. B. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108895835.001 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Handlin, S. P. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108895835.011 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Inclusion and Partisan Representation
Dunning, T., & Novaes, L. M. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108895835.008
Self-citationThe Political Economy of Sovereign Wealth Funds
Jerger, J. (2020) · Comparative Economic Studies in Europe · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-48295-4_6 · Cited by 1
The One Who Controls the Diamond Wears the Crown
Munier, N. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108884877.005 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Natural Resources and Rentier Capitalism
Omeje, K. (2021) · International political economy series · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-75170-8_4 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
(2020) · Resource Radicals · doi:10.1215/9781478012122-006 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
The World Bank and the Contentious Politics of Global Social Spending
Çemen, R., & Yörük, E. (2020) · Global Dynamics of Social Policy · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-38200-1_9 · Cited by 1
“There are a few previous works that tackle similar inquiries; however, they test the opposite direction of the relationship we are interested in: the effect that welfare has on contentious politics (see i.e. Burgoon 2006; Dunning 2008; Pierson 2001; Taydas and Peksen 2012; Weiss 2005).”
Result(2020) · Resource Radicals · doi:10.1215/9781478012122-001 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
The Political Management of the Oil Bonanza During Correa’s Government
Acosta, A. M., & Albornoz, V. (2019) · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-27625-6_10 · Cited by 1
The effect of oil export on direct external democratizing pressures
Woo, J. (2021) · Social Science Quarterly · doi:10.1111/ssqu.13030
Inclusion, Populism, and Democracy
Seawright, J., & Barrenechea, R. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108895835.016
Changing Patterns of Ideology and Partisanship in Latin America
Pop-Elecheș, G. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108895835.009 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Goldfrank, B. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108895835.006 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Dunning, T., & Novaes, L. M. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108895835.010
Boas, T. C. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108895835.015 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Understanding the Nature of the Kimberley Process and International Agreements
Munier, N. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108884877.008
Munier, N. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108884877.001
Diamonds, Dependence, and De Beers
Munier, N. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108884877.004
Urban–Rural Pressures across Regime Types: The Case of Turkey
Ballard-Rosa, C. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108871310.006
Default Pressures in Closed versus Electoral Autocracy: Zambia and Malaysia
Ballard-Rosa, C. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108871310.004
Regime-Contingent Biases and Sovereign Default, 1960–2009
Ballard-Rosa, C. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108871310.003
Default Pressures in Consolidated versus Contentious Democracy: Costa Rica and Jamaica
Ballard-Rosa, C. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108871310.005
Conclusion: The Implications of Nationalization
Mahdavi, P. (2020) · Power Grab · doi:10.1017/9781108781350.008
Why Nationalize? Evidence from National Oil Companies around the World
Mahdavi, P. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108781350.005
The Puzzle of Extractive Resource Nationalization
Mahdavi, P. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108781350.002
The Theory of Political Survival through Nationalization
Mahdavi, P. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108781350.003
List of Interviews and Focus Groups
Lewis, J. I. (2018) · How Insurgency Begins · doi:10.1017/9781108525015.019
Managing the security of the railway system by the Black Sea: rivalry and state building in Romania
Dungaciu, D., Dumitrescu, L., & Văduva, S. (2018) · Journal of Transportation Security · doi:10.1007/s12198-018-0199-8
Political Durability and Protests
Young, S. (2021) · Strategies of Authoritarian Survival and Dissensus in Southeast Asia · doi:10.1007/978-981-33-6112-6_1
Gloria, E. V., & Arugay, A. A. (2021) · The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Global Security Studies · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-74336-3_430-1
Hunter, W. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108895835.005 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
FromNeoliberalismotoExtractivismo
(2020) · Resource Radicals · doi:10.1215/9781478012122-002
Resource Radicals: Bibliography
(2020) · Resource Radicals · doi:10.1215/9781478012122-009
Mogrovejo, L. N. (2020) · Resource Radicals · doi:10.1215/9781478012122-004
(2020) · Resource Radicals · doi:10.1215/9781478012122-008
(2020) · Resource Radicals · doi:10.1215/9781478012122-005
(2020) · Resource Radicals · doi:10.1215/9781478012122-007
Extractivismoas Grand Narrative of Resistance
(2020) · Resource Radicals · doi:10.1215/9781478012122-003
How Resource Nationalism Hinders Public Accountability
Fontaine, G., Caviedes, C. M., & Narváez, I. (2019) · International Series on Public Policy · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-28995-9_5
Public Accountability Deficits as a Policy Problem
Fontaine, G., Caviedes, C. M., & Narváez, I. (2019) · International series on public policy · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-28995-9_1
- Authors
- Dunning, T.
- Affiliations
- Yale University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Dunning, Thad
- ORCID
- Dunning, Thad
- Venue
- Cambridge University Press eBooks
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press
- Published
- 2008-09-08
- OpenAlex
- W2201428197
- Cited by
- 466
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 24 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 45 · 2020: 78 · 2019: 45 · 2018: 37 · 2017: 24 · 2016: 29 · 2015: 18 · 2014: 28 · 2013: 26 · 2012: 37
- FWCI
- 26.98
- Type
- book
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Cambridge University Press eBooks (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Politics and Society in Latin America
- Keywords
- natural resource wealth, oil wealth, mineral wealth, democracy, authoritarianism, authoritarian regimes, political economy of resources, Latin America, Africa
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