Unwelcome Change: Coming to Terms with Democratic Backsliding

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Wright (2009) finds that the relationship between aid and democratization is conditional on the size of the dictator's coalition.

“Wright (2009) finds that the relationship between aid and democratization is conditional on the size of the dictator's coalition.”

• cites Wright (2009) sourceSupported

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Knack (2004) finds no statistically significant relationship between aid and democracy scores.

“While Knack (2004) finds no statistically significant relationship between aid and democracy scores”

• cites Knack (2004) sourceSupported

May combine two claims.

Skaaning et al. (2015) code backsliding in less than 3% of cases, while Wahman et al. (2013) find backsliding in more than 11% of their cases.

“For instance, Skaaning et al. (2015) code backsliding in < 3%ofthecases recorded, while Wahman et al. (2013) find backsliding in > 11% of their cases.”

• cites Skaaning et al. (2015) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Wahman et al. (2013) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Although measures of regime type are highly correlated, indicators of regime change are not.

“Although measures of regime type are indeed highly correlated, indicators of regime change are not.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Efforts to explain democratic backsliding remain inchoate.

“yet efforts to explain this phenomenon remain inchoate”

• Also stated in: § Figure 1 · p. 3 · plain

  “Efforts to explain backsliding remain inchoate.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

The theoretical debates on the causes of democratic transitions, breakdowns, authoritarian resilience, and democratic consolidation remain unresolved.

“the theoretical debates that do exist-centered on the causes of democratic transitions, democratic breakdowns, authoritarian resilience, and democratic consolidation-remain unresolved”

May combine two claims.

Scholars have not used the term democratic backsliding consistently and have not measured the phenomenon accurately.

“they have not used the term consistently; moreover, they have not measured the phenomenon accurately”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Alternative coding schemes change the population of units that have experienced democratic backsliding.

“alternative coding schemes change the population of units that have experienced democratic backsliding”

May combine two claims.

Viewing backsliding as composed of clearly intended efforts to change competitiveness, participation, and accountability provides some defense against false positives and comports well with the empirical record.

“Viewing backsliding as composed of clearly intended efforts to change some combination of competitiveness, participation, and accountability not only provides some defense against false positives but also comports well with the empirical record.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Competition, participation, and accountability are the three relevant dimensions of democratic governance for coding backsliding.

May combine two claims.

Agentic accounts suffer from handicaps: claims about the absence of structural constraints are often unexamined presuppositions, and they lack a rigorous theory of agency.

“These accounts suffer from well-known handicaps. Claims about the absence of structural constraints are too often unexamined presuppositions and not the conclusion of empirical analysis. These accounts also lack a rigorous theory of agency, settling instead for relatively ad hoc analyses of decision making relying on inductive judgments that defy falsification.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Agentic theories place the explanatory burden on contingent decisions made by political actors under relatively unconstrained conditions.

“Agentic theories place the explanatory burden on contingent decisions made by political actors under relatively unconstrained conditions.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted).

Power-seeking presidents unconstrained by powerful institutions or competing centers of political power are free to initiate backsliding.

“One promising approach claims that power-seeking presidents unconstrained by powerful institutions or competing centers of political power are left free to initiate backsliding (Fish 2001, Van de Walle 2003).”

• cites Fish 2001Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Van de Walle 2003 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Backsliding involves relatively fine-grained degrees of change within a regime, distinct from transitions across regime types.

“Backsliding, as distinct from transitions across regime types, involves relatively fine-grained degrees of change.”

May combine two claims.

Scholars have paid much attention to measuring regime type but little explicit attention to measuring regime change.

“They have given a great deal of attention to measuring regime type but have paid little explicit attention to measuring regime change.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

We lack readily available theories to explain backsliding.

“we lack readily available theories to explain backsliding”

• Also stated in: § Figure 1 · p. 3 · plain

  “we lack theories to explain backsliding”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

The bar for robustness was low: findings were considered robust if the coefficient had the expected sign and was significant at p < 0.10.

“findings were considered robust if the coefficient of interest had the expected sign and was significant at the p &lt; 0.10 level”

• cites Lueders & Lust 2018 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Academic interest in incremental forms of backsliding is quite new, and no crystallized, coherent literature evaluates rival hypotheses about a relatively fixed set of cases.

“Academic interest in incremental forms of backsliding, however, is quite new, and no crystallized, coherent literature evaluates rival hypotheses about a relatively fixed set of cases.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Mainwaring & Pérez-Liñán argue that democratic survival in Latin America rests on the moderate policy preferences and normative commitment to democracy of the current generation of political leaders.

“They argue that democratic survival in Latin America rests on the moderate policy preferences and normative commitment to democracy of the current generation of political leaders, both variables amenable to systematic measurement.”

• cites Mainwaring & P´ erez-Li˜ n´ an (2014)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

The five datasets that can measure backsliding are based on different concepts of democratic characteristics and yield very different answers to basic empirical questions about backsliding.

“As summarized in Table 1 , these are based on different concepts of democratic characteristics and, disconcertingly, yield very different answers to basic empirical questions regarding backsliding.”

May combine two claims.

Extant indicators provide a basis for operationalizing backsliding, but scholars have not carefully considered the indicators of backsliding.

“Extant indicators provide a basis for operationalizing backsliding as outlined above, but thus far scholars have not considered carefully the indicators of backsliding.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Coding a case of backsliding requires degradation in at least two of three dimensions of democratic governance: competition, participation, and accountability.

“Coding a case of backsliding requires degradation in at least two of these three dimensions of democratic governance: competition, participation, and accountability.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Competition, participation, and accountability are the three relevant dimensions of democratic governance for coding backsliding.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Backsliding can occur through a discontinuous series of incremental actions rather than a one-time coup.

“we understand backsliding as potentially occurring through a discontinuous series of incremental actions, not a one-time coup de grˆ ace .”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

The instruments of international change are efforts to catalyze cultural, institutional, or economic change, and diplomatic efforts to persuade local political leaders.

“the instruments of change are efforts to catalyze cultural, institutional, or economic change, as well as diplomatic efforts to persuade local political leaders to alter their behavior.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing).

Reynolds contends that power-sharing systems based on proportional representation create incentives to accommodate others and thus deter democratic breakdown.

“More recently, Reynolds (2011) contends that relative to majoritarian political institutions, power-sharing systems based on proportional representation create incentives to accommodate others and thus deter democratic breakdown.”

• cites Reynolds (2011)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Inglehart & Welzel argue that democracy requires the transition from traditional and survival-oriented values to secular and self-expressive values.

“For Inglehart &amp; Welzel (2005), democracy requires the transition from traditional and survivaloriented values to secular and self-expressive values.”

• cites Inglehart & Welzel (2005)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

It is not yet possible to determine whether dysfunctional properties of party systems are causes of backsliding or symptoms of vulnerability to backsliding.

“We cannot yet say whether dysfunctional properties of party systems are causes of backsliding or symptoms of the vulnerability to backsliding.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In the international factors theory family, the primary agent of causal intervention is an actor in the international system, not a domestic actor.

“What distinguishes hypotheses in this theory family is that the primary agent of the causal intervention is an actor in the international system, not a domestic actor.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

A key weakness of these case studies is the inability to generalize findings beyond the small number of cases included.

“a key weakness of these case studies is the inability to generalize findings beyond the small number of cases included in a study.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Agency-based accounts entail simultaneous engagement with cultural and institutional theories.

“That is, agency-based accounts entail simultaneous engagement with cultural and institutional theories.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

The relationship between oil revenues and democracy is not decisively antidemocratic.

“the relationship between oil revenues and democracy is not decisively antidemocratic.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Theories of political culture explain political outcomes by widely shared attitudes, beliefs, norms, practices, and rituals.

“Theories of political culture explain political outcomes by way of attitudes, beliefs, norms, practices, and rituals that are widely shared, have deep emotional resonance, and divide appropriate and socially sanctioned from inappropriate behavior.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Theories centered on international influence are not necessarily distinct from the prior theory families; they imply an external actor as the agent of change.

“theories centered on international influence are not necessarily distinct from the theory families already reviewed; they simply imply an external actor as the agent of change.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In the late twentieth century, the dismal economic performance of most dictatorships led to democratic transitions.

“In the late twentieth century, in contrast, it was the dismal economic performance of most dictatorships that led to democratic transitions”

• cites Haggard & Kaufman 1995Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The price of admission to the club of democracies, measured by GDP, fell steadily over the twentieth century.

“The price of admission to the club of democracies, denominated in gross domestic product, fell steadily over the course of the twentieth century.”

• cites Bermeo & Yashar (2016) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

As income inequality rises, democracy's costs for the wealthy increase, lowering the probability of democratic transitions.

“As income inequality rises, democracy's costs for the wealthy increase, lowering the probability of democratic transitions.”

• cites Boix (2003) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Acemoglu & Robinson (2006)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Access to oil rents favors incumbents and exacerbates problems of vertical and horizontal accountability.

“access to oil rents favors incumbents and exacerbates problems of vertical and horizontal accountability.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Democratic political institutions can have three broad types of effect: on vertical accountability and representativeness, on horizontal accountability, and on governmental efficaciousness and performance.

“Wecanthink of democratic political institutions as having three broad types of effect.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

In new democracies, high rates of growth are associated with lower risks of authoritarian reversion, while high rates of inflation substantially increase the risks of democratic breakdown.

“A recent study of new democracies finds that high rates of growth are associated with lower risks of authoritarian reversion, while high rates of inflation substantially increase the risks of democratic breakdown”

• cites Kapstein & Converse 2008 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

There is a fair amount of debate about findings in structural-economic studies of regime outcomes, and these findings can be highly sensitive to case selection and model specification.

“Perhaps as a result, there is a fair amount of debate about findings, which can be highly sensitive to case selection and model specification.”

May combine two claims.

Most work on oil continues to emphasize how oil hinders transitions, and much less is known about how it might catalyze deterioration of an existing democracy.

“most work continues to emphasize how oil hinders transitions and we knowmuchlessabouthowitmightcatalyzethedeteriorationofanexistingdemocracy”

May combine two claims.

One-third of the stable parliamentary democracies in these samples had populations under one million, heightening suspicions that parliamentary systems were established in contexts more propitious for democratic survival.

“Furthermore, one-third of the stable parliamentary democracies in these samples had populations under one million, heightening suspicions that parliamentary systems were being established in contexts that were more propitious for democratic survival.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Fish finds that Muslim-majority countries score on average about 1.5 points lower on a Freedom House democracy score.

“Fish finds that Muslim-majority countries score, on average, about 1.5 points lower on a Freedom House democracy score, or about one-fifth of the total variation on the dependent variable.”

• cites Fish (2002) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The effects of endogenous modernization are temporally heterogeneous: very strong in the nineteenth century, moderate in the interwar period, and barely distinguishable from zero in the postwar period.

“their revised study also demonstrates temporally heterogeneous effects of endogenous modernization, which appear to be very strong for the nineteenth century, moderate for the interwar period, and barely distinguishable from zero for the postwar period.”

• cites Boix & Stokes (2002)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The American military occupation of Japan involved changes to the Japanese constitution, short-term economic policies, restructuring of the economy, and education reforms.

“the American military occupation of Japan after World War II, effective through April 1952, involved changes to the Japanese constitution, short-term economic policies to encourage stabilization and growth, policies aimed at restructuring the Japanese economy (e.g., dismantling economic conglomerates, land reform) and even education reforms”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

In Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Venezuela, rising oil rents helped generate a leftist rentier populism in which informal economic sectors were induced to support new plebiscitary mechanisms that diminished horizontal accountability.

“Mazzuca finds that in Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Venezuela, rising oil rents helped generate a leftist rentier populism in which informal economic sectors were induced to support new plebiscitary mechanisms that diminished horizontal accountability.”

• cites Mazzuca (2013) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Scholarship on income levels and democratization finds evidence for both endogenous and exogenous modernization theories.

“Scholarship on the relationship between income levels and democratization finds evidence for both endogenous and exogenous modernization theories.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted).

Lijphart argues that consociational institutions induce elite moderation that facilitates cooperation and democratic survival.

“Lijphart (1977) offers the best-known theory of democratic stability and electoral systems, arguing that in plural societies, consociational institutions-most importantly, grand coalitions that guarantee government office to parties representing all major sociocultural groups-induce elite moderation that facilitates cooperation and democratic survival.”

• cites Lijphart (1977)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

A large body of scholarship contests Huntington's theoretical framework.

“An equally large body of scholarship contests Huntington's theoretical framework.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

These classic theories do not satisfy contemporary standards of theory development, hypothesis derivation, case selection, or qualitative causal analysis.

“They do not satisfy contemporary standards of theorydevelopment,thederivationofhypotheses,caseselection,orevenqualitative causal analysis.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Occupation-based nation building has included efforts to alter the cultural, institutional, and political-economic landscape.

“nation building has included efforts to alter the cultural, institutional, and political-economic landscape.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Any effect of inequality on democratic transitions and breakdowns was more powerful in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries than in the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries.

“subsequent research suggests that any effect of inequality on democratic transitions and breakdowns was more powerful in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries than in the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries”

• cites Bermeo 2009 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Haggard & Kaufman 2012 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Slater et al. 2014 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing).

Linz argues that presidential systems have an inherent flaw: two governmental organs with autonomous legitimacy create almost inevitable clashes and stalemates.

“According to Linz (1990), the inherent flaw of presidential systems is that they establish two governmental organs with autonomous legitimacy, creating almost inevitable clashes and stalemates.”

• cites Linz (1990) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

May combine two claims.

Cheibub's analysis finds that democracies established after military dictatorships are more likely to be presidential, while those following civilian dictatorships are more likely to be parliamentary.

“His analysis of Latin American cases finds that democracies established after military dictatorships have a much higher likelihood of being presidential systems, while democracies that follow civilian dictatorships are far more likely to be parliamentary systems.”

• cites Cheibub (2007)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Scholars have not fully mined the insights these theories promise, especially their emphasis on the balance of power between social groups and classes.

“we believe that scholars have not fully mined the insights these theories promise, a theme we return to in the concluding section, where we further explore the potential relevance of coalitional theories, especially their emphasis on the balance of power between social groups and classes.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

More recent democratic transitions have occurred at relatively high levels of inequality.

“Multiple studies report that more recent democratic transitions have occurred at relatively high levels of inequality.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Cultures are properties of large groups, are inherited from the past, and tend to change relatively slowly.

“First, cultures are properties of large groups of people, either entire societies or substantial subgroups in society.”

• Also stated in: § Theories of Political Culture · p. 6 · plain

  “Second, cultures are inherited from the past”

• Also stated in: § Theories of Political Culture · p. 6 · plain

  “cultural change tends to be relatively slow”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

It is plausible that democracies and autocracies produce different levels of development.

“it is plausible that democracies and autocracies produce different levels of development.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Most classic theories of social structure, political coalitions, and democracy rest heavily on informal theory and undisciplined case-study narratives.

“Most of the classic theories of social structure, political coalitions, and democracy rest heavily on informal theory and undisciplined case-study narratives.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Low levels of development or high levels of inequality, or both, are associated with weakly instituted democracies that are vulnerable to backsliding.

“We believe that low levels of development or high levels of inequality, or both, are associated with weakly instituted democracies that are vulnerable to backsliding”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Third Wave democracies do not appear to have been systematically preceded by rising levels of income or decreasing levels of income inequality.

“Third Wave democracies do not appear to have been systematically preceded by rising levels of income or decreasing levels of income inequality”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

The broader literature on regime change provides grand theoretical frameworks but falls short in important ways.

“our review of the broader literature on regime change reveals that although it provides more grand, theoretical frameworks, it falls short in important ways.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

Distinguishing causes of background vulnerabilities from causes of particular backsliding episodes may allow former theoretical rivals to cooperate.

“Insofar as we can better distinguish causes of background vulnerabilities from causes of particular backsliding episodes, we may find that former theoretical rivals can in fact cooperate.”

May combine two claims.

The effects of economic growth on democratic transitions were relatively strong in Europe and parts of the Western Hemisphere in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, much less pronounced in the interwar period, and quite modest in the postwar period; the effect might even be negligible in the Third Wave.

“the effects of economic growth on democratic transitions appear to have been relatively strong in Europe and parts of the Western Hemisphere in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, much less pronounced in the interwar period, and quite modest in the postwar period; indeed, that effect might even be negligible in the Third Wave of democratization.”

May combine two claims.

Taken individually, these actions are subtle enough to be plausibly denied or justified within democratic norms; only when considered together do they threaten democracy.

“Notably, any of these actions taken individually is subtle enough to be plausibly denied or can be plausibly justified within a democratic normative framework; it is only when considered in concert that they constitute a threat to democracy.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

The emerging literature on backsliding describes particular pathways and shows a great deal of theoretical modesty.

“much of which describes particular pathways of backsliding, we see a great deal of theoretical modesty”

May combine two claims.

Without a large, well-organized prodemocratic coalition that has access to political institutions, democracy remains endangered, and backsliding is a possible or even likely outcome.

“Moore's corollary that without a large prodemocratic coalition, efficaciously organized and with access to political institutions, democracy remains imperiledwith backsliding as one possible and even likely outcome-informs a great deal of the work we have surveyed.”

• cites Moore's (1966)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Membership in international organizations may help consolidate democratic reforms.

“Membership in international organizations may also help to consolidate democratic reforms”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Unexamined endogeneity is particularly troubling in many studies of political institutions.

“a problem we see as particularly troubling in many studies of political institutions.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Membership in the European Union generates Western leverage and linkage.

“membership in the European Union, for example, generates Western leverage and linkage.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Rising income inequality can be conceived as raising the costs of toleration.

“we can conceive of rising income inequality as raising the costs of toleration”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

Continuous measures of democracy may carry unnecessary conceptual baggage and present measurement challenges.

“Even continuous measures of democracy may carry unnecessary conceptual baggage and may thus present measurement challenges”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Theories of political culture often lack the combination of a demand side and a supply side needed to logically predict the outcome in question.

“theories of political culture often lack the combination of a demand side and a supply side that would be needed to logically predict the outcome in question.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

A successful prodemocratic movement in one country may persuade citizens of neighboring countries that their movement could be successful.

“a successful prodemocratic movement in one country may persuade citizens of neighboring countries that their prodemocratic movement could be successful as well.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

It is not always easy to determine whether backsliding has occurred and how extensive it is.

“On the one hand, it is not always simple to identify whether backsliding has taken place and to what extent.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

A candidate framework favored is Dahl's axiomatic approach to polyarchy, in which the probability of a democratic transition is positively related to the costs of suppression and inversely related to the costs of toleration.

“A candidate framework that we favor is Dahl's (1971) axiomatic approach to polyarchy, in which the probability of a democratic transition is positively related to the costs of suppression and inversely related to the costs of toleration.”

• cites Dahl (1971)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

A political actor in a polity vulnerable to backsliding may initiate a low-level assault on democratic accountability in response to a global event that does not trigger backsliding in less vulnerable democracies.

“A political actor in a polity that is vulnerable to backsliding may initiate a low-level assault on democratic accountability in response to a particular global event that does not trigger backsliding in other, less vulnerable democracies.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Approaches to political agency seldom present concrete, testable hypotheses.

“approaches to political agency seldom present concrete, testable hypotheses”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

The susceptibility to international influences may differ from country to country.

“the susceptibility to international influences may differ from country to country.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Whether such actions amount to democratic backsliding depends partly on whether they persist despite public opposition and institutional responses, including court rulings on extreme partisan gerrymandering.

“Whether these and other actions constitute democratic backsliding will depend, in part, on how durable these actions are in the face of public opposition and institutional responses, such as judicial rulings on the constitutionality of extreme partisan gerrymandering.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Democratic backsliding requires reversion along at least two of three dimensions of democracy.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The growth of a shadow market of more lenient monitoring organizations allows countries to choose their monitors strategically.

“Kelley (2012) expands on these threats to credible election monitoring, observing that the growth of a shadow market of more lenient monitoring organizations allows countries to choose their monitors strategically.”

• cites Kelley (2012) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

Foreign aid is analogous to oil rents: it stimulates rent-seeking behavior and curtails the capacity of citizens to hold rulers accountable.

“Djankov et al. (2008) find that foreign aid is analogous to oil rents: It stimulates rent-seeking behavior and curtails the capacity of citizens to hold rulers accountable.”

• cites Djankov et al. (2008)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

There are ongoing inter- and intratheoretical debates, methodological controversies, and significant reasons to question both the internal and external validity of many or most of the hypotheses covered.

“we find ongoing inter- and intratheoretical debates, methodological controversies, and significant reasons to question both the internal and external validity of many or most of the hypotheses we have covered.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

There is no readily available set of theories that the community can uncontroversially adopt, adapt, and apply to the problem of backsliding.

“There is no readily available set of theories that we as a community can uncontroversially adopt, adapt, and apply to the problem of backsliding.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

This assumption of functional form probably reflects a tacit acceptance of modernization theory.

“This assumption of functional form probably reflects a tacit acceptance of modernization theory”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Many factors identified by existing theories-individual personalities, political cultures and institutions, economic conditions, and international factors-are plausibly relevant to explaining backsliding.

“It is quite clear that many of the factors identified by existing theories-individual personalities, political cultures and institutions, economic conditions, and even international factorsare plausibly relevant to explaining backsliding.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Social capital can be conceived as facilitating collective action and hence raising the costs of suppression.

“we can conceive of social capital as facilitating collective action and hence raising the costs of suppression.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Despite six well-populated theory families, there is no obvious theoretical framework for explaining backsliding.

“On the other hand, despite the existence of six well-populated theory families, we do not have an obvious theoretical framework for explaining backsliding.”

May combine two claims.

When leverage and linkage are high, there is strong and consistent pressure for democratization; when both are low, there is weak external pressure; when mixed, there is weaker and more intermittent pressure.

“When leverage and linkage are high, there is strong and consistent pressure for democratization; when both are low, there is weak external pressure; and when they are mixed (high/low or low/high), there is weaker and more intermittent pressure.”

• cites Levitsky & Way (2006, 2010)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Many studies suffer from the persistence of unexamined endogeneity.

“many studies still suffer from the persistence of unexamined endogeneity”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Under some coalitional dynamics, major political actors stop being satisfied with playing by the rules, losing gracefully, and competing again in the next round.

“It appears likely to us that under some coalitional dynamics, major political actors are no longer satisfied playing strictly by the rules, losing gracefully, and competing again in the next round.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Whether major actors can be constrained or can continue until democracy exists in name only depends on balances of power.

“Whether they can be constrained or whether they can continue unimpeded until democracy exists in name only depends on balances of power.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

High levels of foreign aid are associated with measures of backsliding.

“High levels of foreign aid are thus associated with measures of backsliding”

• cites Djankov et al. (2008)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

Across the theory families, there is evidence of causal heterogeneity, both spatial and longitudinal.

“across the theory families we see evidence of causal heterogeneity, both spatial and longitudinal.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Dahl conceived of the two cost functions as monotonic and inversely related, such that increases in the cost of toleration were exactly matched by decreases in the cost of suppression.

“Dahl conceived of the two cost functions as monotonic and inversely related to one another, such that increases in the cost of toleration were exactly matched by decreases in the cost of suppression.”

• cites Dahl (1971)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

International monitoring of elections can deter electoral fraud, thus influencing democratization.

“A study by Hyde (2007) is the strongest demonstration that international monitoring of elections can deter electoral fraud, thus influencing democratization.”

• cites Hyde (2007) sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

The increased incidence of democratic backsliding has been met with a similar increase in scholarly interest.

“The increased incidence of democratic backsliding has been met with a similar increase in scholarly interest”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

The mechanisms by which international factors exercise influence may differ from country to country.

“the mechanisms by which international factors exercise influence may differ from country to country.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Incumbents and international monitors are engaged in a complex strategic game with uncertain results.

“Subsequent research expands on the idea that incumbents and international monitors are engaged in a complex strategic game with uncertain results.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

There is mixed support for the hypothesis that foreign aid affects democracy, with findings very sensitive to statistical model construction.

“There is mixed support for this hypothesis, with findings very sensitive to how the statistical model is constructed.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

There is space for shared analytic frameworks that can better orient research projects and allow communication across theoretical boundaries.

“we see space for some shared analytic frameworks that can better orient research projects, allowing communication across theoretical boundaries.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

Much remains to be done to develop a coherent theoretical understanding of democratic backsliding.

“much is to be done to develop a coherent theoretical understanding of this phenomenon.”

May combine two claims.

That realignment helped polarize Congress and deepened the radicalization of the modern Republican Party.

“This helped polarize Congress and also furthered the radicalization of the modernRepublican Party.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Diffuse channels of international influence may affect the likelihood of democratic transitions and durability.

“Diffuse channels of international influence may thus affect the likelihood of democratic transitions and durability.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Large-scale aid reduces a ten-point democracy index by as much as one point.

“Large-scale aid reduces a ten-point democracy index by as much as one point.”

• cites Djankov et al. (2008)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.