AFRICA'S PROSPECTS FOR ENJOYING A DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND
Abstract
We assess Africa's prospects for enjoying a demographic dividend. While fertility rates and dependency ratios in Africa remain high, they have started to decline. According to UN projections, they will fall further in the coming decades such that by the mid-21st century, the ratio of the working age to dependent population will be greater than in Asia, Europe, and Northern America. This projection suggests Africa has considerable potential to enjoy a demographic dividend. Whether and when it actually materializes, and also its magnitude, hinges on policies and institutions in key realms that include macroeconomic management, human capital, trade, governance, and labor and capital markets. Given strong complementarities among these areas, coordinated policies will likely be most effective in generating the momentum needed to pull Africa's economies out of a development trap.
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If demographic dividends are strategically reinvested (e.g., in education, population health, R&D), strong positive knock-on effects on economic growth can be expected, as observed in many East Asian countries.
“Their findings suggest that if the demographic dividends are strategically reinvested (e.g., in education, population health, R&D, etc.), strong positive knock-on effects on economic growth can be expected (Bloom et al. 2017), as observed in many East Asian countries (Bloom & Finlay 2009).”
From Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences (2024) · cites this paper as Bloom et al. 2017
Cites
The impact of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa
Marchiori, L., Maystadt, J.-F., & Schumacher, I. (2012) · Journal of Environmental Economics and Management · doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2012.02.001 · Cited by 442 · see citing works
Health, Human Capital, and Development
Bleakley, H. (2010) · Annual Review of Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev.economics.102308.124436 · Cited by 345 · see citing works
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Pezzulo, C., Nilsen, K., Carioli, A., Tejedor-Garavito, N., Hanspal, S. E., Hilber, T., James, W. H. M., Ruktanonchai, C. W., Alegana, V., Sorichetta, A., et al. (2021) · The Lancet Global Health · doi:10.1016/s2214-109x(21)00082-6 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences
Bloom, D. E., Kuhn, M., & Prettner, K. (2024) · Annual Review of Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-economics-081523-013750 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Self-citationFertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences
Bloom, D. E., Kuhn, M., & Prettner, K. (2023) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4597716 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Self-citation
- Authors
- Bloom, D. E., Kuhn, M., & Prettner, K.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Bloom, David E.
- ORCID
- Bloom, David E.
- Venue
- Journal of Demographic Economics
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2017-02-13
- Volume
- 83
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 63-76
- ISSN
- 2054-0892 (ISSN-L)
- 2054-0906
- OpenAlex
- W2518238763
- Cited by
- 103
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 17 · 2023: 16 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 26 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 1
- FWCI
- 16.74
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Demographic Economics (publishedVersion)
- WU Research (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health
- National Institute on Aging
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Information Systems › Economic Growth and Development
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economic Development and Digital Transformation
- Keywords
- demographic dividend, Africa, fertility decline, dependency ratio, working-age population, economic development, human capital, macroeconomic regulation, trade policy, governance, labor market, capital markets, development traps, policy coordination
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