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Partisanship and Economic Behavior: Do Partisan Differences in Economic Forecasts Predict Real Economic Behavior?

GERBER, ALAN S., HUBER, GREGORY A.·2009·American Political Science Review
DOI 10.1017/s0003055409990098
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Abstract

Survey data regularly show that assessments of current and expected future economic performance are more positive when a respondent's partisanship matches that of the president. To determine if this is a survey artifact or something deeper, we investigate whether partisanship is associated with behavioral differences in economic decisions. We construct a new data set of county-level quarterly taxable sales to examine the effect of partisanship on consumption. Consumption change following a presidential election is correlated with a county's partisan complexion, a result consistent with partisans acting outside the domain of politics in accordance with the opinions they express in surveys. These results support an expansive view of the role of partisanship in mass politics and help validate surveys as a method for studying political behavior.

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Crossref · 10.1017/s0003055409990098

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3 of 3 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

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  • A county that moves from 50% Democratic to 65% Democratic undergoes an increase in consumption 0.9% higher following a Democratic presidential victory compared with a Republican presidential victory.

    “Gerber & Huber (2009) used data from county tax receipts to estimate that a county that moves from 50% Democratic to 65% Democratic undergoes an increase in consumption 0.9% higher following a Democratic presidential victory compared with a Republican presidential victory.”

    From The Origins and Consequences of Affective Polarization in the United States (2019) · cites this paper as Gerber & Huber (2009)

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Authors
GERBER, A. S., & HUBER, G. A.
Venue
American Political Science Review
Publisher
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Published
2009-08
Volume
103
Issue
3
Pages
407-426
ISSN
  • 0003-0554
  • 1537-5943
DOI
10.1017/s0003055409990098
Cited by
236
References
3
Language
en
Licence
www.cambridge.org/core/terms (unspecified)

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