Leader Survival and Natural Disasters
Abstract
Analyses of the occurrence of natural disasters show that in large coalition systems, such as democracies, their occurrence has little effect on protest or leader survival. However, if large numbers of people die in these disasters, more protests occur and leader survival diminishes. In contrast, for leaders in small coalition systems, the occurrence of disasters increases protests and reduces tenure, but the level of fatalities has little effect. The anticipation of these potential political effects accounts for why many more people die in disasters in small coalition systems than in large coalition systems.
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Autocratic leaders are more threatened by the mere occurrence of disasters but less affected by how well they manage to prevent deaths.
“Their study found that autocratic leaders are more threatened by the mere occurrence of disasters -which can facilitate revolutionary protests by concentrating displaced individuals -but less affected by how well they manage to prevent deaths.”
From Precaution and proportionality in pandemic politics: democracy, state capacity, and COVID-19-related school closures around the world (2022) · cites this paper as Flores and Smith 2013
Cites
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Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach
Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., & Sergenti, E. (2004) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/421174 · Cited by 2,460 · see citing works
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Sparks and prairie fires: A theory of unanticipated political revolution
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Resisting Lockdown: The Influence of COVID-19 Restrictions on Social Unrest
Wood, R., Reinhardt, G. Y., RezaeeDaryakenari, B., & Windsor, L. C. (2022) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1093/isq/sqac015 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Cronert, A. (2022) · Journal of Public Policy · doi:10.1017/s0143814x22000101 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
“This reasoning is in line with historical evidence by Flores and Smith (2013) regarding the distinct consequences of occurrences and fatalities of natural disasters for the survival in office of autocratic and democratic leaders.”
BackgroundResult
- Authors
- Quiroz Flores, A., & Smith, A.
- Affiliations
- University of Essex (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Smith, Alastair
- ORCID
- Smith, Alastair
- Venue
- British Journal of Political Science
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2012-12-13
- Volume
- 43
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 821-843
- ISSN
- 0007-1234 (ISSN-L)
- 1469-2112
- OpenAlex
- W2125629731
- Cited by
- 119
- References
- 4
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 15 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 3 · 2013: 1
- FWCI
- 11.60
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- British Journal of Political Science (publishedVersion)
- Open Access at Essex (University of Essex) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Keywords
- natural disasters, leader survival, political protest, democracy, political violence, disaster fatalities, political risk
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