The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions

“As shown in a recent paper by Kahn (2005) , the death toll of disasters decreases with economic development.”

“See, for instance, Kahn (2005) , Toya and Skidmore (2007), and Noy (2008).”

“This increases the similarity among the treated regions and the set of donors and, therefore, the reliability of the construction of the synthetic control.4 Our paper also shares an interest with Kahn (2005), Stromberg (2007) and Noy (2009) in the mediating role of institutions.”

“Most of the existing literature con entrates on the human costs of disaster events (e.g. Kellenberg and Mobarak 2008, Anbarci et al. 2005, Kahn 2005).”

“Despite the fact that developed nations suffer less than poor countries from a disaster of a given size, natural disasters are imposing larger economic costs over time (Kahn, 2005; Pielke, Jr., et al., 2008).”

“21 Generally, it seems to be that richer and more developed countries experience less direct damages from natural disasters (Kahn 2005; Toya and Skidmore 2007; Kellenberg and Mobarak 2008).”

“The general findings in the existing empirical literature on the impact of disasters on output can be summed up as follows: As a direct effect, natural disasters physically destroy the factors of production—labour (e.g., Anbarci et al. 2005; Kahn 2005; Halliday 2006) and physical capital (Albala-Bertrand 1993).”

“24 These results, other than for the corruption variable, which to date has not been evaluated, are quite similar to those reported in Anbarci, Escaleras, and Register (2005) and Kahn (2005) .”

“The death toll from disasters, for example, is typically much higher in low-income countries (Kahn, 2005).”

“9 than interactions with disaster intensity (Czajkowski et al., 2011; Kahn, 2005; Toya & Skidmore, 2007).”

“Nonetheless, the possibility of persistent economic effects of endowments has contributed to the “folk wisdom” in policy circles that poor populations are systematically exposed to the most damaging climates today and will face the largest changes in the future (Kahn 2005; Adger 2006; Intergovernmental Panel on Climat…”

“Finally, the net economic impact caused by any natural disaster is closely linked to a country’s disaster preparedness (Kahn 2005).”

“Studies focusing on the effects of natural disasters at the country or regional levels (Albala-Bertrand 1993; Skidmore and Toya 2002 and 2007; Kahn 2005; Loayza et al. 2009; Noy 2 Human capital losses or disinvestments can also contribute to poverty traps development (see e.g. Alderman, Hoddinott…”

“Yet, there is clearly no systematic relationship between the frequency of natural hazards and income or poverty level (as found by Kahn 2005).”

“…rainfall, temperature, and other climatic parameters and that these modifications will probably lead to an increase in the incidence of environmental disasters (IPCC, 2012; Kahn, 2005; Parry, Rosenzweig, Iglesias, Livermore, & Fischer, 2004; Toya & Skidmore, 2007; Olsson et al., 2014 among others).”

“Kahn (2005) argues that great political accountability will induce democracies to take pro-active actions and adapt to hazards in a way that reduces their overall impact.”

“A detailed analysis of the adverse effects of such “zombie” lending practices by Japanese banks on firm entry and exit is provided by Caballero et al. (2008). and Toya, 2002; Okuyama, 2003; Kahn, 2005; Stromberg, 2007; Toya and Skidmore, 2007; Crespo-Cuaresma et al., 2008; Sawada et al., 2011).”

“Finally, institutional development may also be seen as a form of increased capacity to cope with natural disasters and reduce vulnerability (Kahn 2005).”

“2009), political (Collins 2008; Oliver-Smith 2004; Pelling 1999), institutional (Birkmann et al. 2008; Kahn 2005) and cultural (Cannon 2008; Donovan et al.”

“Moreover, although the severity of disasters is partly determined by per capita income (Kahn 2005) and (possibly) the level of democracy, the infrequent occurrence of natural disasters eliminates the potential correlation between our control variables and disaster strength.”

“It does not take into account the degree of pre-disaster vulnerability among the affected populations, which may differ significantly between developed and developing countries, and even more within any single country of the second category (Kahn, 2005; Strömberg, 2007).”

“Previous international studies find that income reduces the lethality of natural hazards ( Kahn 2005, Anbarci et al. 2005), and so we expect a negative sign for income.”

“…correlated with the physical intensity of the natural hazard, might be determined by a country’s macroeconomic and institutional setting (see, e.g., Kahn 2005; Anbarci, Escaleras, and Register 2005; Escaleras, Anbarci, and Register 2007; Kellenberg and Mobarak 2008; Keefer, Neumayer, and Plümper…”

“Comparison between countries clearly shows that richer countries can prevent or mitigate disasters’ impact more effectively and therefore the cost they bear (as a fraction of their economic size) is significantly smaller (Kahn, 2005).”

“The resilience to natural disasters highly depends on the quality of institutions (Kahn 2005).”

“characteristics of disasters possibly influence the outcome (e.g., Skidmore & Toya 2002; Kahn 2005; Kellenberg & Mobarak 2008; Skidmore & Toya 2013).”

“2 A pioneering cross-country study on the economics of natural disasters by Kahn (2005) included an analysis of”

“This problem is common to all of the literature on disaster’s, as can be seen in Kahn (2005) , Escaleras and Register (2007), and Skidmore and Toya (2002), each of which control for fixed effects at the continent level, though none divide the world into nine continents as we do.”

“However, the level of damage caused by disasters appears to also depend on institutional conditions (Kahn, 2005).”

“33 While poverty and vulnerability are distinct concepts, have different drivers and not all adaptation measures address both (Eriksen and O'Brien, 2007), there is substantial overlap in practice as lessaffluent people often suffer from wealth and wealth losses and have less capacity to recover (Kahn, 2005; Eriksen an…”

“This control is added to account for the well-known interaction between federal and state elections (Kedar 2006; Kern and Hainmueller 2006); given the SPD’s control of the federal government, we may expect that the party attains fewer votes in districts where it also had control of the government…”

“While some papers focus on cross-national data that includes many types of disasters (Kahn (2005), Stromberg (2007), Quiroz and Smith (2010)), others focus on specific events, such as earthquakes (Escaleras et al. (2007), Brancati (2007), Keefer et al. (2010)), hurricanes (Abney and Hill (1966),…”

“Previous research has shown vulnerability to be positively associated with disaster risk (Kahn 2005; Noy 2009; Toya and Skidmore 2007).”

“– Higher income inequality is associated with higher natural disaster death rates Kahn (2005).”

“…more negatively affected by natural disasters (Loayza et al. 2012 and Noy 2009) and thus, such shocks could further undermine their catch-up to the developed world or, even worst, induce poverty traps (Noy 2009, Anbarci et al. 2005, Kahn 2005, Skidmore and Toya 2007 and Carter et al. 2007).”

“These hazards have a disproportionate impact on communities in the global South where people often lack the financial capacity to cope with, or be resilient to, the hazards they face (Kahn 2005).”

“…inferior de vítimas de desastres naturais, não têm sido menos afetadas por fenômenos extremos (e.g. hidro-meteorológicos) suscetíveis de desencadear desastres quando comparadas às nações mais pobres, conforme já realçado também por outros autores (e.g. GUHA et al., 2012; KAHN, 2005).”

“Because many previous studies utilized per capita income as an indicator of resistance to disasters, higher income is often associated with less damage and vice versa (Kahn 2005, Toya and Skidmore 2007, Bakkensen 2013a, 2013b, Kousky 2014).”

“As countries with poor and less democratic institutions usually suffer more from natural disasters, being less able to manage the situation (Kahn, 2005), natural events can be crucial in showing the weakness of bad governments and be therefore a key factor for catalyzing political change in an…”

“Although many articles discussed the role of poverty and socioeconomic status on earthquake casualties, few measured the risks related to these factors (Cannon 1994; Fothergill and Peek 2004; Kahn 2005).”

“Kahn (2005) shows that countries with higher per capita income experience a similar amount of catastrophic events but suffer less death from these events.”

“tend to be reduced as national incomes rise (Kahn 2005).”

“…(Birkmann, 2007; Holzmann, 2001), due to a greater number of families inhabiting risky areas in informal settlements, deprived from the access to basic services and lifelines (Alesch & Siembieda, 2012; Cutter, Boruff, & Shirley, 2003; Kahn, 2005; Siembieda, 2010; Toya & Skidmore, 2007).”

“The reduction curve is a decay trend, meaning that the disaster prevention and reduction capacity increases (thus decreases the natural disaster) with social development (Kahn 2005; Toya and Skidmore 2006).”

“In the context of the latter, studies have established that both learning effect and generic adaptation measures play a role in reducing damages from natural disasters (Kahn 2005; Anbarci et al. 2005; Toya and Skidmore 2007; Kellenberg and Mobarak 2008; Sharma and Patwardhan 2008; Yamamura 2010, 2012).”