The Use of Bayesian Statistics for 14C Dates of Chronologically Ordered Samples: A Critical Analysis
Open accessAbstract
Bayesian mathematics provides a tool for combining radiocarbon dating results on findings from an archaeological context with independent archaeological information such as the chronological order, which may be inferred from stratigraphy. The goal is to arrive at both a more precise and a more accurate date. However, by means of simulated measurements we will show that specific assumptions about prior probabilities—implemented in calibration programs and not evident to the user—may create artifacts. This may result in dates with higher precision but lower accuracy, and which are no longer in agreement with the true ages of the findings.
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Given the inherent tendency to spread dating probability, Bayesian analysis of a sequence of dates across a plateau forms a prime case where boundaries must be employed to avoid a potentially wider spread of probability than is realistic.
“In addition, given the inherent tendency to spread dating probability, Bayesian analysis of a sequence of dates across a plateau forms a prime case where boundaries must be employed to avoid a potentially wider spread of probability than is realistic, as highlighted by Steier and Rom (Reference Steier and Rom2000).”
From Problems of Dating Spread on Radiocarbon Calibration Curve Plateaus: The 1620–1540 BC Example and the Dating of the Therasia Olive Shrub Samples and Thera Volcanic Eruption (2024) · cites this paper as Steier and Rom 2000
In Computer Experiment A (page unavailable), the paper reports that dates on the flat Hallstatt calibration curve shift apart to cover the whole period. The Additional information section (page unavailable) likewise says the common prior spreads sequence ages across the range allowed by radiocarbon uncertainty. It does not say that boundaries must be employed; it recommends choosing a prior suited to the archaeological context. (LLM, conf=0.86)
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Calibration of radiocarbon results pertaining to related archaeological events
Buck, C. E., Litton, C. D., & Smith, A. F. M. (1992) · Journal of Archaeological Science · doi:10.1016/0305-4403(92)90025-x · Cited by 244 · see citing works
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Bayesian Analysis of Radiocarbon Dates
Bronk Ramsey, C. (2009) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.1017/s0033822200033865 · Cited by 8,725 · see citing works
Second Intermediate Period date for the Thera (Santorini) eruption and historical implications
Manning, S. W. (2022) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0274835 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Manning, S. W. (2024) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.1017/rdc.2024.44 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
- Authors
- Steier, P., & Rom, W.
- Affiliations
- University of Vienna (AT)
- Venue
- Radiocarbon
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2000
- Volume
- 42
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 183-198
- ISSN
- 0033-8222 (ISSN-L)
- 1945-5755
- OpenAlex
- W2396875319
- Cited by
- 122
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 3 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 9 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 1 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 1.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Radiocarbon (publishedVersion)
- UA Campus Repository (The University of Arizona) (acceptedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology › Ancient and Medieval Archaeology Studies
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Tree-ring climate responses
- Keywords
- Bayesian analysis, radiocarbon dating, chronological order, stratigraphy, prior probability, calibration program, archaeological chronology
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