The DOI matches its Crossref record; 24 of the 24 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Future long-term care expenditure in Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom
Open accessAbstract
This paper reports findings from a European Commission funded study of future long-term care expenditure in Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, and presents projections of future long-term care expenditure in the four countries under a number of assumptions about the future. Macro-simulation (or cell-based) models were used to make comparable projections based on a set of common assumptions. A central base-case served as a point of comparison by which to explore the sensitivity of the models to alternative scenarios for the key determinants. The sensitivity of the models to variant assumptions about the future numbers of older people, the prevalence of functional dependency and informal care, patterns of long-term provision, and macroeconomic conditions are examined. It was found that, under the base-case, the proportion of gross domestic product spent on long-term care is projected to more than double between 2000 and 2050 in each country. The projected future demand for long-term care services for older people is sensitive to assumptions about the future number of older people, the prevalence of dependency and the availability of informal care, and projected expenditure is sensitive to assumptions about rises in the real unit-costs of services and the structure of the models. It is important, for planning purposes, to recognise the considerable uncertainty about future levels of long-term care expenditure.
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Sorted by citations
Ageing and Elderly Care in the Arab Region: Policy Challenges and Opportunities
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“However, state support for women who provide long-term care for family members, as those present in some developed countries, such as Italy and Spain (Commas-Herrera et al. 2006; Pavolini and Ranci 2008), does not exist.”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- COMAS-HERRERA, A., WITTENBERG, R., COSTA-FONT, J., GORI, C., DI MAIO, A., PATXOT, C., PICKARD, L., POZZI, A., & ROTHGANG, H.
- Affiliations
- London School of Economics and Political Science (GB)
- Istituto per la Ricerca Sociale (IT)
- Universitat de Barcelona (ES)
- University of Bremen (DE)
- Venue
- Ageing and Society
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2006-02-27
- Volume
- 26
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 285-302
- ISSN
- 0144-686X (ISSN-L)
- 1469-1779
- OpenAlex
- W2103350818
- Cited by
- 154
- References
- 24
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 8 · 2016: 12 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 13 · 2013: 12 · 2012: 12
- FWCI
- 17.33
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- orcid.org
- Locations
- Ageing and Society (publishedVersion)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (acceptedVersion)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Theses Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Commission
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Global Health Care Issues
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Geriatrics and Gerontology › Geriatric Care and Nursing Homes
- Social Sciences › Life-span and Life-course Studies › Aging, Elder Care, and Social Issues
- Keywords
- long-term care costs, long-term care demand, older adults, functional dependencies, informal care, expenditure projections, demographic change, projection uncertainty, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom
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