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The Impact of the Oil Sector on Commodity Prices: Correlation or Causation?
Open accessAbstract
The interconnections of agriculture and energy markets have increased through the rise in the new biofuel agribusinesses and the oil-ethanol-corn linkages. The question is whether these linkages have a causal structure by which oil prices affect commodity prices and through these links, instability is transferred from energy markets to already volatile agricultural markets. In this article, we present empirical results using contemporary time-series analysis and Granger causality supplemented by a directed graph theory modeling approach to identify the links and plausible contemporaneous causal structures among energy and commodity variables. The results show that although there is a strong correlation among oil and commodity prices, the evidence for a causal link from oil to commodity prices is mixed.
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Cites
Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1913236 · Cited by 32,007
Causation, Prediction, and Search
Spirtes, P., Glymour, C., & Scheines, R. (2001) · doi:10.7551/mitpress/1754.001.0001 · Cited by 4,521
Cited by
Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review
Serra, T., & Zilberman, D. (2013) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2013.02.014 · Cited by 269
The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses
Baffes, J., Kose, M. A., Ohnsorge, F., & Stocker, M. (2015) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2624398 · Cited by 266
Time-frequency contained co-movement of crude oil and world food prices: A wavelet-based analysis
Pal, D., & Mitra, S. K. (2017) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2016.12.020 · Cited by 213
Metadata
- Authors
- Saghaian, S. H.
- Venue
- Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 2010-08
- Volume
- 42
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 477-485
- ISSN
- 0081-3052 (ISSN-L)
- 1074-0708
- 2056-7405
- OpenAlex
- W2147749000
- Cited by
- 206
- References
- 2
- FWCI
- 26.90
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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