Causation, Prediction, and Search
Abstract
The authors address the assumptions and methods that allow us to turn observations into causal knowledge, and use even incomplete causal knowledge in planning and prediction to influence and control our environment. What assumptions and methods allow us to turn observations into causal knowledge, and how can even incomplete causal knowledge be used in planning and prediction to influence and control our environment? In this book Peter Spirtes, Clark Glymour, and Richard Scheines address these questions using the formalism of Bayes networks, with results that have been applied in diverse areas of research in the social, behavioral, and physical sciences. The authors show that although experimental and observational study designs may not always permit the same inferences, they are subject to uniform principles. They axiomatize the connection between causal structure and probabilistic independence, explore several varieties of causal indistinguishability, formulate a theory of manipulation, and develop asymptotically reliable procedures for searching over equivalence classes of causal models, including models of categorical data and structural equation models with and without latent variables. The authors show that the relationship between causality and probability can also help to clarify such diverse topics in statistics as the comparative power of experimentation versus observation, Simpson's paradox, errors in regression models, retrospective versus prospective sampling, and…
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FCI relaxed the unconfoundedness assumption, outputting Partial Ancestral Graphs, but brought a surge in computational costs.
“FCI[13] relaxed the unconfoundedness assumption, outputting Partial Ancestral Graphs (PAG), but brought a surge in computational costs.”
From From Correlation to Intervention: A Survey on Log-Based Causal Analysis for Security and AIOps (2026) · cites this paper as [13]
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- Authors
- Spirtes, P., Glymour, C., & Scheines, R.
- ORCID
- Spirtes, Peter
- Venue
- The MIT Press eBooks
- Publisher
- The MIT Press
- Published
- 2001-01-29
- OpenAlex
- W4302423442
- Cited by
- 4,521
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 209 · 2025: 373 · 2024: 411 · 2023: 399 · 2022: 357 · 2021: 273 · 2020: 248 · 2019: 304 · 2018: 212 · 2017: 200 · 2016: 190 · 2015: 159 · 2014: 159 · 2013: 154 · 2012: 107
- FWCI
- 7.07
- Type
- book
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The MIT Press eBooks (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR-08-FRAL-0010)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History and Philosophy of Science › Philosophy and History of Science
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Keywords
- causal discovery, causal inference, Bayesian networks, causal models, manipulation, structural equation modeling, latent variables, Simpson's paradox, feature selection, regression error
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