Managing multiple mandates: a system of systems model to analyze strategies for producing cellulosic ethanol and reducing riverine nitrate loads in the Upper Mississippi River Basin
Abstract
Implementing public policies often involves navigating an array of choices that have economic and environmental consequences that are difficult to quantify due to the complexity of multiple system interactions. Implementing the mandate for cellulosic biofuel production in the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and reducing hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico by reducing riverine nitrate-N loads represent two such cases that overlap in the Mississippi River Basin. To quantify the consequences of these interactions, a system of systems (SoS) model was developed that incorporates interdependencies among the various subsystems, including biofuel refineries, transportation, agriculture, water resources and crop/ethanol markets. The model allows examination of the impact of imposing riverine nitrate-N load limits on the biofuel production system as a whole, including land use change and infrastructure needs. The synergies of crop choice (first versus second generation biofuel crops), infrastructure development, and environmental impacts (streamflow and nitrate-N load) were analyzed to determine the complementarities and trade-offs between environmental protection and biofuel development objectives. For example, the results show that meeting the cellulosic biofuel target in the RFS using Miscanthus x giganteus reduces system profits by 8% and reduces nitrate-N loads by 12% compared to the scenario without a mandate. However, greater water consumption by Miscanthus is likely to reduce streamflow with potentially adverse environmental consequences that need to be considered in future decision making.
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Water availability and WUE are major factors determining available land for energy cropping and reallocating or introducing crop species.
“Water availability [91,92] and WUE [61,93,94] are major factors determining available land for energy cropping and reallocating or introducing crop species.”
From Biomass and biofuels in China: Toward bioenergy resource potentials and their impacts on the environment (2018) · cites this paper as [93]
Marginal land availability is constrained by multiple factors.
“Marginal land availability is constrained by multiple factors, its future quantification in China should well consider not only land productivity [15,39] but also a synergy of crop species choice (conventional vs. cellulosic crops) [61,93], infrastructure viability (e.g., transportation) [93,103], and environmental availability and sustainability (e.g., water availability, soil quality) [82,105].”
From Biomass and biofuels in China: Toward bioenergy resource potentials and their impacts on the environment (2018) · cites this paper as [93]
Profit-maximizing reallocation of land to bioenergy crops while maintaining food production, and production-maximizing crop selection considering environmental constraints, could help maximize biomass production while minimizing environmental footprints.
“Profit-maximizing reallocation land to bioenergy crops, but still maintain food production [86] from existing cropland, and production-maximizing crop selection considering en-vironmental constraints [93] could help maximize biomass production while minimize environmental footprints.”
From Biomass and biofuels in China: Toward bioenergy resource potentials and their impacts on the environment (2018) · cites this paper as [93]
Infrastructure can influence the overall landscape design and crop choice.
“Infrastructure can influence the overall landscape design and crop choice [93,103].”
From Biomass and biofuels in China: Toward bioenergy resource potentials and their impacts on the environment (2018) · cites this paper as [93]
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Qin, Z., Zhuang, Q., Cai, X., He, Y., Huang, Y., Jiang, D., Lin, E., Liu, Y., Tang, Y., & Wang, M. Q. (2018) · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.rser.2017.08.073 · Cited by 174 · see citing works
Self-citation
- Authors
- Housh, M., Yaeger, M. A., Cai, X., McIsaac, G. F., Khanna, M., Sivapalan, M., Ouyang, Y., Al-Qadi, I., & Jain, A. K.
- Affiliations
- University of Haifa (IL)
- University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US)
- Corresponding author
- Cai, Ximing
- ORCID
- Venue
- Environmental Science & Technology
- Publisher
- American Chemical Society (ACS)
- Published
- 2015-09-22
- Volume
- 49
- Issue
- 19
- Pages
- 11932-11940
- ISSN
- 0013-936X (ISSN-L)
- 1520-5851
- OpenAlex
- W2306665237
- Cited by
- 30
- References
- 25
- Citations by year
- 2025: 2 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 4 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 3 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 2
- FWCI
- 8.68
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Environmental Science & Technology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Division of Emerging Frontiers in Research and Innovation (EFRI-083598)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Bioenergy crop production and management
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Biomedical Engineering › Biofuel production and bioconversion
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Bioeconomy and Sustainability Development
- Keywords
- cellulosic ethanol, Renewable Fuel Standard, hypoxia, biofuel mandates, Miscanthus × giganteus, land use change, river discharge, water consumption, energy crops, Upper Mississippi River Basin, environmental policy trade-offs
- MeSH terms
- Agriculture, Ethanol, Cellulose, Illinois, Mississippi, Models, Theoretical, Nitrates, Rivers, Biofuels, Water Quality
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