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The Use of Likelihood-Based Confidence Intervals in Genetic Models
Abstract
This article describes the computation and relative merits of likelihood-based confidence intervals, compared to other measures of error in parameter estimates. Likelihood-based confidence intervals have the advantage of being asymmetric, which is often the case with structural equation models for genetically informative studies. We show how the package Mx provides confidence intervals for parameters and functions of parameters in the context of a simple additive genetic, common, and specific environment threshold model for binary data. Previously published contingency tables for major depression in adult female twins are used for illustration. The support for the model shows a marked skew as the additive genetic parameter is systematically varied from zero to one. The impact of allowing different prevalence rates in MZ vs. DZ twins is explored by fitting a model with separate threshold parameters and comparing the confidence intervals. Despite the improvement in fit of the different prevalence model, the confidence intervals on all parameters broaden, owing to their covariance.
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“Likelihood-based confidence intervals are considered superior to asymptotic confidence intervals for finite samples (Neale and Miller, 1997).”
From Structural and practical identifiability analysis of partially observed dynamical models by exploiting the profile likelihood (2009) · cites this paper as Neale and Miller, 1997
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“Furthermore, the profile likelihood allows one to assess likelihood based confidence intervals [20-22].”
From Joining forces of Bayesian and frequentist methodology: a study for inference in the presence of non-identifiability (2013) · cites this paper as [22]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Neale, M. C., & Miller, M. B.
- Affiliations
- Washington University in St. Louis (US)
- Corresponding author
- Neale, Michael C.
- ORCID
- Neale, Michael C.
- Venue
- Behavior Genetics
- Published
- 1997-03
- Volume
- 27
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 113-120
- ISSN
- 0001-8244 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-3297
- OpenAlex
- W2109232798
- Cited by
- 310
- References
- 21
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 10 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 9 · 2015: 11 · 2014: 7 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 12
- FWCI
- 6.89
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- Behavior Genetics (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (5r01rr008123-02)
- National Institute of Mental Health (T32MH017104, MH/AA 49492, MH 17104)
- National Center for Research Resources (RR-08123)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genetic Associations and Epidemiology
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Psychometric Methodologies and Testing
- Keywords
- genetic models, structural equation modeling, threshold model, binary data, major depressive disorder, twin studies, additive genetic effects, shared environment, prevalence rates, model fit, parameter estimation
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Depressive Disorder, Diseases in Twins, Female, Humans, Models, Genetic, Social Environment, Twins, Dizygotic, Twins, Monozygotic, Confidence Intervals, Likelihood Functions
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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