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Evaluating the use of “goodness‐of‐fit” Measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation

Legates, David R., McCabe, Gregory J.·1999·Water Resources Research

Abstract

Correlation and correlation‐based measures (e.g., the coefficient of determination) have been widely used to evaluate the “goodness‐of‐fit” of hydrologic and hydroclimatic models. These measures are oversensitive to extreme values (outliers) and are insensitive to additive and proportional differences between model predictions and observations. Because of these limitations, correlation‐based measures can indicate that a model is a good predictor, even when it is not. In this paper, useful alternative goodness‐of‐fit or relative error measures (including the coefficient of efficiency and the index of agreement) that overcome many of the limitations of correlation‐based measures are discussed. Modifications to these statistics to aid in interpretation are presented. It is concluded that correlation and correlation‐based measures should not be used to assess the goodness‐of‐fit of a hydrologic or hydroclimatic model and that additional evaluation measures (such as summary statistics and absolute error measures) should supplement model evaluation tools.

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Metadata

Authors
Legates, D. R., & McCabe, G. J.
Venue
Water Resources Research
Published
1999-01
Volume
35
Issue
1
Pages
233-241
ISSN
  • 0043-1397 (ISSN-L)
  • 1944-7973
OpenAlex
W2037460094
Cited by
4,591
References
2
FWCI
34.29
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed

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Legates, D. R., & McCabe, G. J. (1999). Evaluating the use of “goodness‐of‐fit” Measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation. Water Resources Research. https://doi.org/10.1029/1998wr900018

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