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Cited by 457

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Global warming feedbacks on terrestrial carbon uptake under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Emission Scenarios

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Joos, Fortunat, Prentice, I. Colin, Sitch, Stephen, Meyer, Robert, Hooss, Georg, Plattner, Gian‐Kasper, Gerber, Stefan, Hasselmann, Klaus·2001·Global Biogeochemical Cycles
DOI 10.1029/2000gb001375
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Abstract

A coupled physical‐biogeochemical climate model that includes a dynamic global vegetation model and a representation of a coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model is driven by the nonintervention emission scenarios recently developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Atmospheric CO 2, carbon sinks, radiative forcing by greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols, changes in the fields of surface‐air temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, ocean thermal expansion, and vegetation structure are projected. Up to 2100, atmospheric CO 2 increases to 540 ppm for the lowest and to 960 ppm for the highest emission scenario analyzed. Sensitivity analyses suggest an uncertainty in these projections of −10 to +30% for a given emission scenario. Radiative forcing is estimated to increase between 3 and 8 W m−2 between now and 2100. Simulated warmer conditions in North America and Eurasia affect ecosystem structure: boreal trees expand poleward in high latitudes and are partly replaced by temperate trees and grasses at lower latitudes. The consequences for terrestrial carbon storage depend on the assumed sensitivity of climate to radiative forcing, the sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature, and the rate of increase in radiative forcing by both CO 2 and other GHGs. In the most extreme cases, the terrestrial biosphere becomes a source of carbon during the second half of the century. High GHG emissions and high contributions of non‐CO 2 agents to radiative forcing favor a transient terrestrial carbon source by enhancing warming and the associated release of soil carbon.

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Metadata

Authors
Joos, F., Prentice, I. C., Sitch, S., Meyer, R., Hooss, G., Plattner, G., Gerber, S., & Hasselmann, K.
Venue
Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Published
2001-12
Volume
15
Issue
4
Pages
891-907
ISSN
  • 0886-6236 (ISSN-L)
  • 1944-9224
DOI
10.1029/2000gb001375
OpenAlex
W1980480679
Cited by
457
References
1
FWCI
9.15
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
green
Licence
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Global warming feedbacks on terrestrial carbon uptake under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Emission Scenarios. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1029/2000gb001375
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Joos, F., Prentice, I. C., Sitch, S., Meyer, R., Hooss, G., Plattner, G., Gerber, S., & Hasselmann, K. (2001). Global warming feedbacks on terrestrial carbon uptake under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Emission Scenarios. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000gb001375

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