Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis
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Abstract
Abstract. The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon.
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This climate-carbon feedback is implicitly included in the Absolute GWP of CO2 through the IRF used.
“this climate feedback is implicitly included in the Absolute GWP of CO2 through the IRF used (Joos et al., 2013).”
From The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018 (2021) · cites this paper as Joos et al., 2013
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- Authors
- Joos, F., Roth, R., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Peters, G. P., Enting, I. G., von Bloh, W., Brovkin, V., Burke, E. J., Eby, M., Edwards, N. R., Friedrich, T., Frölicher, T. L., Halloran, P. R., Holden, P. B., Jones, C., Kleinen, T., Mackenzie, F. T., Matsumoto, K., Meinshausen, M., Plattner, G.-K., Reisinger, A., Segschneider, J., Shaffer, G., Steinacher, M., Strassmann, K., Tanaka, K., Timmermann, A., & Weaver, A. J.
- Affiliations
- University of Bern (CH)
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research (NO)
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (DE)
- Met Office (GB)
- University of Victoria (CA)
- The Open University (GB)
- University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa (US)
- University of Minnesota (US)
- New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre (NZ)
- University of Copenhagen (DK)
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- Corresponding author
- Joos, F.
- Peters, G. P.
- Brovkin, V.
- Burke, E. J.
- Friedrich, T.
- Halloran, P. R.
- Holden, P. B.
- Jones, C.
- Kleinen, T.
- Matsumoto, K.
- Plattner, G.-K.
- Steinacher, M.
- Tanaka, K.
- Timmermann, A.
- ORCID
- Joos, F.
- Fuglestvedt, J. S.
- Peters, G. P.
- Enting, I. G.
- Brovkin, V.
- Burke, E. J.
- Edwards, N. R.
- Friedrich, T.
- Frölicher, T. L.
- Halloran, P. R.
- Holden, P. B.
- Jones, C.
- Kleinen, T.
- Matsumoto, K.
- Meinshausen, M.
- Plattner, G.-K.
- Reisinger, A.
- Segschneider, J.
- Shaffer, G.
- Steinacher, M.
- Tanaka, K.
- Timmermann, A.
- Weaver, A. J.
- Venue
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
- Publisher
- Copernicus GmbH
- Published
- 2013-03-08
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 2793-2825
- ISSN
- 1680-7316 (ISSN-L)
- 1680-7324
- OpenAlex
- W2023168822
- Cited by
- 839
- References
- 5
- Citations by year
- 2026: 51 · 2025: 83 · 2024: 94 · 2023: 79 · 2022: 65 · 2021: 103 · 2020: 60 · 2019: 53 · 2018: 52 · 2017: 53 · 2016: 48 · 2015: 45 · 2014: 28 · 2013: 24 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 36.87
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Atmospheric chemistry and physics (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Research at the University of Copenhagen (University of Copenhagen) (publishedVersion)
- Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Open Research Online (The Open University) (acceptedVersion)
- Bern Open Repository and Information System (University of Bern) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- ETH Zürich Research Collection (cc-by)
- Funders
- European Commission (264879, 265170)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- global warming potential, global temperature change potential, ocean carbon uptake, land carbon uptake, ocean heat content, sea level rise, radiative efficiency, time horizon, multi-model analysis
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