The DOI matches its Crossref record; 1 of the 1 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861
Abstract
We present the first analysis of global and hemispheric surface warming trends that attempts to quantify the major sources of uncertainty. We calculate global and hemispheric annual temperature anomalies by combining land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) through an optimal averaging technique. The technique allows estimation of uncertainties in the annual anomalies resulting from data gaps and random errors. We add independent uncertainties due to urbanisation, changing land‐based observing practices and SST bias corrections. We test the accuracy of the SST bias corrections, which represent the largest source of uncertainty in the data, through a suite of climate model simulations. These indicate that the corrections are likely to be fairly accurate on an annual average and on large space scales. Allowing for serial correlation and annual uncertainties, the best linear fit to annual global surface temperature gives an increase of 0.61±0.16°C between 1861 and 2000.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Effects of changing exposure of thermometers at land stations
Parker, D. E. (1994) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.3370140102 · Cited by 169
Self-citation
Research works printed but not linked: 19
- Diggle P. J., 1999, Analysis of longitudinal data
- 10.1002/qj.49712152206 · DOI · Paper page
- 10.1002/joc.3370151103 · DOI
- Folland C. K., 2001, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
- 10.2151/jmsj1965.78.2_187 · doi:10.2151/jmsj1965.78.2_187
- 10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<2661:GSSTAM>2.0.CO;2 · doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<2661:gsstam>2.0.co;2
- 10.1038/347169a0 · DOI · Paper page
- 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<2548:ESEILS>2.0.CO;2 · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<2548:eseils>2.0.co;2
- 10.1029/2000JD900564 · DOI · Paper page
- 10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2 · DOI · Paper page
- 10.1175/1520-0426(1999)016<0905:ASDOTR>2.0.CO;2 · DOI
- Nicholls N., 1996, The IPCC Second Scientific Assessment, 133
- 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199606)16:6<705::AID-JOC30>3.0.CO;2-S · DOI
- 10.1029/1998GL900322 · DOI
- 10.1007/s003820050009 · DOI · Paper page
- 10.1175/1520-0442(1988)001<0075:ARTGSS>2.0.CO;2 · DOI · Paper page
- Sexton D. M. H. Estimation of anthropogenic signals in an atmospheric climate model using the General Linear Model Ph.D. thesis University of Reading Reading U.K. 2001
- 10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2340:AORAMW>2.0.CO;2 · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2340:aoramw>2.0.co;2
- 10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<0949:OAOSSS>2.0.CO;2 · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<0949:oaosss>2.0.co;2
Cited by
Global surface temperature change
Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., & Lo, K. (2010) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2010rg000345 · Cited by 3,081
The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves
Schär, C., Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., Frei, C., Häberli, C., Liniger, M. A., & Appenzeller, C. (2004) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature02300 · Cited by 2,781
Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850
Brohan, P., Kennedy, J. J., Harris, I., Tett, S. F. B., & Jones, P. D. (2006) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2005jd006548 · Cited by 2,040
Self-citationMorice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A., & Jones, P. D. (2012) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2011jd017187 · Cited by 1,657
Self-citationMeinshausen, M., Raper, S. C. B., & Wigley, T. M. L. (2011) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-11-1417-2011 · Cited by 876
Metadata
- Authors
- Folland, C. K., Rayner, N. A., Brown, S. J., Smith, T. M., Shen, S. S. P., Parker, D. E., Macadam, I., Jones, P. D., Jones, R. N., Nicholls, N., & Sexton, D. M. H.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2001-07
- Volume
- 28
- Issue
- 13
- Pages
- 2621-2624
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W1968706437
- Cited by
- 362
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 17.51
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1029/2001gl012877
- The paper
- Folland, C. K., Rayner, N. A., Brown, S. J., Smith, T. M., Shen, S. S. P., Parker, D. E., Macadam, I., Jones, P. D., Jones, R. N., Nicholls, N., & Sexton, D. M. H. (2001). Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001gl012877
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
