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A less dusty future?
Abstract
Atmospheric desert dust is potentially highly sensitive to changes in climate, carbon dioxide and human land use. In this study we use 6 different scenarios of the processes responsible for changes in source areas and explore changes in desert dust loading in pre‐industrial and future climates, although all the scenario results are likely to be sensitive to the climate model simulations used for this study. Simulations suggest that future dust may be 20 to 60% lower than current dust loadings. The anthropogenic portion of the current dust loading may be as large as 60%, or humans may have caused a 24% decrease in desert dust, depending on the relative importance of land use, carbon dioxide and human induced climate change. These results suggest there may be a high sensitivity of ‘natural aerosols’ to human intervention, which has enormous implications for climate and biogeochemistry in the future.
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Cited by
Atmospheric global dust cycle and iron inputs to the ocean
Mahowald, N. M., Baker, A. R., Bergametti, G., Brooks, N., Duce, R. A., Jickells, T. D., Kubilay, N., Prospero, J. M., & Tegen, I. (2005) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2004gb002402 · Cited by 1,236
Self-citationBounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change
Bellouin, N., Quaas, J., Gryspeerdt, E., Kinne, S., Stier, P., Watson‐Parris, D., Boucher, O., Carslaw, K. S., Christensen, M., Daniau, A. ‐., et al. (2020) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2019rg000660 · Cited by 1,116
“A few GCM studies yield a range of 10 to 60% for the global average in the an-735 thropogenic fraction of mineral dust for present-day (Mahowald & Luo, 2003; Tegen et736 al., 2004; Stanelle et al., 2014), although their simulated changes in anthropogenic min-737 eral dust aerosol disagree in both…”
BackgroundUpper ocean ecosystem dynamics and iron cycling in a global three-dimensional model
Moore, J. K., Doney, S. C., & Lindsay, K. (2004) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2004gb002220 · Cited by 889
Atmospheric composition change – global and regional air quality
Monks, P. S., Granier, C., Fuzzi, S., Stohl, A., Williams, M. L., Akimoto, H., Amann, M., Baklanov, A., Baltensperger, U., Bey, I., et al. (2009) · Atmospheric Environment · doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.08.021 · Cited by 872
Mahowald, N., Jickells, T. D., Baker, A. R., Artaxo, P., Benitez‐Nelson, C. R., Bergametti, G., Bond, T. C., Chen, Y., Cohen, D. D., Herut, B., et al. (2008) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2008gb003240 · Cited by 772
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Metadata
- Authors
- Mahowald, N. M., & Luo, C.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2003-09
- Volume
- 30
- Issue
- 17
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2029822020
- Cited by
- 233
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 11.07
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
