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Causes of exceptional atmospheric circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere
Abstract
We demonstrate that recent observed trends in the annual and austral summer Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) are unlikely to be due to internal climate variability, since they exceed any equivalent‐length trends in a millennial General Circulation Model (GCM) control run with constant forcings. In contrast we show that observed trends in the SAM are consistent with the combined effects of anthropogenic and natural forcings in GCM simulations. As these trends begin prior to stratospheric ozone depletion we challenge the assertion that this process is primarily responsible for changes in the SAM. Moreover, anthropogenic forcings have a larger effect on the austral summer SAM in combination with natural forcings than when acting in isolation.
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Citations
Cited by
Contributions of External Forcings to Southern Annular Mode Trends
Arblaster, J. M., & Meehl, G. A. (2006) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3774.1 · Cited by 549
A review of recent changes in Southern Ocean sea ice, their drivers and forcings
Hobbs, W. R., Massom, R., Stammerjohn, S., Reid, P., Williams, G., & Meier, W. (2016) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.06.008 · Cited by 354
Antarctic Ocean and Sea Ice Response to Ozone Depletion: A Two-Time-Scale Problem
Ferreira, D., Marshall, J., Bitz, C. M., Solomon, S., & Plumb, A. (2015) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00313.1 · Cited by 281
Metadata
- Authors
- Marshall, G. J., Stott, P. A., Turner, J., Connolley, W. M., King, J. C., & Lachlan‐Cope, T. A.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2004-07
- Volume
- 31
- Issue
- 14
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2048783018
- Cited by
- 245
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 15.85
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Marshall, G. J., Stott, P. A., Turner, J., Connolley, W. M., King, J. C., & Lachlan‐Cope, T. A. (2004). Causes of exceptional atmospheric circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004gl019952
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