Antarctic Ocean and Sea Ice Response to Ozone Depletion: A Two-Time-Scale Problem
Open accessAbstract
The response of the Southern Ocean to a repeating seasonal cycle of ozone loss is studied in two coupled climate models and is found to comprise both fast and slow processes. The fast response is similar to the interannual signature of the southern annular mode (SAM) on sea surface temperature (SST), onto which the ozone hole forcing projects in the summer. It comprises enhanced northward Ekman drift, inducing negative summertime SST anomalies around Antarctica, earlier sea ice freeze-up the following winter, and northward expansion of the sea ice edge year-round. The enhanced northward Ekman drift, however, results in upwelling of warm waters from below the mixed layer in the region of seasonal sea ice. With sustained bursts of westerly winds induced by ozone hole depletion, this warming from below eventually dominates over the cooling from anomalous Ekman drift. The resulting slow time-scale response (years to decades) leads to warming of SSTs around Antarctica and ultimately a reduction in sea ice cover year-round. This two-time-scale behavior—rapid cooling followed by slow but persistent warming—is found in the two coupled models analyzed: one with an idealized geometry and the other with a complex global climate model with realistic geometry. Processes that control the time scale of the transition from cooling to warming and their uncertainties are described. Finally the implications of these results are discussed for rationalizing previous studies of the effect of the ozone hole on SST and sea ice extent.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The failure of CMIP5 models to simulate Southern Ocean SST cooling may suggest that natural decadal variability is important or that the timing of different response mechanisms in the models is not adequately resolved.
“this may suggest that natural decadal variability is also important73,76, or that the timing of different response mechanisms in the models is not adequately resolved74,77.”
From Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies (2020) · cites this paper as [77]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
The ERA‐Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., et al. (2011) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1002/qj.828 · Cited by 24,480 · see citing works
Isopycnal Mixing in Ocean Circulation Models
Gent, P. R., & McWilliams, J. C. (1990) · Journal of Physical Oceanography · doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1990)020 · Cited by 3,174 · see citing works
A finite‐volume, incompressible Navier Stokes model for studies of the ocean on parallel computers
Marshall, J. C., Adcroft, A., Hill, C., Perelman, L., & Heisey, C. W. (1997) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/96jc02775 · Cited by 2,696 · see citing works
Self-citationInterpretation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change
Thompson, D. W. J., & Solomon, S. (2002) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1069270 · Cited by 1,906 · see citing works
Self-citationHydrostatic, quasi‐hydrostatic, and nonhydrostatic ocean modeling
Marshall, J. C., Hill, C., Perelman, L., & Adcroft, A. (1997) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/96jc02776 · Cited by 1,448 · see citing works
Self-citationSignatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change
Thompson, D. W. J., Solomon, S., Kushner, P. J., England, M. H., Grise, K. M., & Karoly, D. J. (2011) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo1296 · Cited by 1,006 · see citing works
Self-citationFrankignoul, C., & Hasselmann, K. (1977) · Tellus · doi:10.3402/tellusa.v29i4.11362 · Cited by 892 · see citing works
Antarctic sea ice variability and trends, 1979–2010
Parkinson, C. L., & Cavalieri, D. J. (2012) · The cryosphere · doi:10.5194/tc-6-871-2012 · Cited by 879 · see citing works
Polvani, L. M., Waugh, D. W., Correa, G. J. P., & Son, S. (2010) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2010jcli3772.1 · Cited by 626 · see citing works
Simulation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change
Gillett, N. P., & Thompson, D. W. J. (2003) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1087440 · Cited by 599 · see citing works
Trends in the sea ice cover using enhanced and compatible AMSR‐E, SSM/I, and SMMR data
Comiso, J. C., & Nishio, F. (2008) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2007jc004257 · Cited by 526 · see citing works
Turner, J. C., Comiso, J. C., Marshall, G. J., Lachlan‐Cope, T., Bracegirdle, T. J., Maksym, T., Meredith, M. P., Wang, Z., & Orr, A. (2009) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2009gl037524 · Cited by 499 · see citing works
Arctic sea ice variability and trends, 1979–2006
Parkinson, C. L., & Cavalieri, D. J. (2008) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2007jc004558 · Cited by 479 · see citing works
Hallberg, R., & Gnanadesikan, A. (2006) · Journal of Physical Oceanography · doi:10.1175/jpo2980.1 · Cited by 456 · see citing works
Variability of Antarctic sea ice 1979–1998
Zwally, H. J., Comiso, J. C., Parkinson, C. L., Cavalieri, D. J., & Gloersen, P. (2002) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2000jc000733 · Cited by 428 · see citing works
Molteni, F. (2003) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-002-0268-2 · Cited by 422 · see citing works
Impact of stratospheric ozone on Southern Hemisphere circulation change: A multimodel assessment
Son, S., Gerber, E. P., Perlwitz, J., Polvani, L. M., Gillett, N. P., Seo, K.-H., Eyring, V., Shepherd, T. G., Waugh, D. W., Akiyoshi, H., et al. (2010) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2010jd014271 · Cited by 341 · see citing works
Adcroft, A., & Campin, J. (2003) · Ocean Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2003.09.003 · Cited by 341 · see citing works
Implementation of an Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model on the Expanded Spherical Cube
Adcroft, A., Campin, J., Hill, C., & Marshall, J. C. (2004) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/mwr2823.1 · Cited by 326 · see citing works
Self-citationCoupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Ice Response to Variations in the Southern Annular Mode
Gupta, A. S., & England, M. H. (2006) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3843.1 · Cited by 312 · see citing works
Influence of the Southern Annular Mode on the sea ice–ocean system
Lefebvre, W., Goosse, H., Timmermann, R., & Fichefet, T. (2004) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2004jc002403 · Cited by 294 · see citing works
Ozone database in support of CMIP5 simulations: results and corresponding radiative forcing
Cionni, I., Eyring, V., Lamarque, J., Randel, W. J., Stevenson, D. S., Wu, F., Bodeker, G. E., Shepherd, T. G., Shindell, D. T., & Waugh, D. W. (2011) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-11-11267-2011 · Cited by 287 · see citing works
Zonally asymmetric response of the Southern Ocean mixed-layer depth to the Southern Annular Mode
Sallée, J., Speer, K. G., & Rintoul, S. R. (2010) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo812 · Cited by 271 · see citing works
Impact of ocean model resolution on CCSM climate simulations
Kirtman, B. P., Bitz, C. M., Bryan, F. O., Collins, W. D., Dennis, J. M., Hearn, N., Kinter, J. L., Loft, R. D., Rousset, C., Siqueira, L. S. P., et al. (2012) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1500-3 · Cited by 246 · see citing works
Self-citationCauses of exceptional atmospheric circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere
Marshall, G. J., Stott, P. A., Turner, J. C., Connolley, W. M., King, J., & Lachlan‐Cope, T. (2004) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2004gl019952 · Cited by 246 · see citing works
Improvements in a half degree atmosphere/land version of the CCSM
Gent, P. R., Yeager, S. G., Neale, R., Levis, S., & Bailey, D. A. (2009) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0614-8 · Cited by 241 · see citing works
The Dependence of Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning on Wind Stress
Abernathey, R., Marshall, J. C., & Ferreira, D. (2011) · Journal of Physical Oceanography · doi:10.1175/jpo-d-11-023.1 · Cited by 191 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate system response to stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery
Previdi, M., & Polvani, L. M. (2014) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1002/qj.2330 · Cited by 186 · see citing works
Ferreira, D., Marshall, J. C., & Heimbach, P. (2005) · Journal of Physical Oceanography · doi:10.1175/jpo2785.1 · Cited by 175 · see citing works
Self-citationAntarctic climate response to stratospheric ozone depletion in a fine resolution ocean climate model
Bitz, C. M., & Polvani, L. M. (2012) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2012gl053393 · Cited by 162 · see citing works
Self-citationSeasonal Relationships between Large-Scale Climate Variability and Antarctic Sea Ice Concentration
Simpkins, G. R., Ciasto, L. M., Thompson, D. W. J., & England, M. H. (2012) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00367.1 · Cited by 159 · see citing works
On the Relationship between Southern Ocean Overturning and ACC Transport
Morrison, A. K., & Hogg, A. M. (2012) · Journal of Physical Oceanography · doi:10.1175/jpo-d-12-057.1 · Cited by 156 · see citing works
Marshall, J. C., Armour, K. C., Scott, J. R., Kostov, Y., Hausmann, U., Ferreira, D., Shepherd, T. G., & Bitz, C. M. (2014) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2013.0040 · Cited by 155 · see citing works
Self-citationHas the ozone hole contributed to increased Antarctic sea ice extent?
Sigmond, M., & Fyfe, J. C. (2010) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2010gl044301 · Cited by 154 · see citing works
Effects of vertical variations of thickness diffusivity in an ocean general circulation model
Danabasoglu, G., & Marshall, J. (2007) · Ocean Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2007.03.006 · Cited by 154 · see citing works
Self-citationASIS—A New Air–Sea Interaction Spar Buoy: Design and Performance at Sea
Graber, H. C., Terray, E. A., Donelan, M. A., Drennan, W. M., Leer, J. C. V., & Peters, D. B. (2000) · Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology · doi:10.1175/1520-0426(2000)017 · Cited by 150 · see citing works
Observations of Large-Scale Ocean–Atmosphere Interaction in the Southern Hemisphere
Ciasto, L. M., & Thompson, D. W. J. (2008) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2007jcli1809.1 · Cited by 149 · see citing works
Climate Determinism Revisited: Multiple Equilibria in a Complex Climate Model
Ferreira, D., Marshall, J. C., & Rose, B. E. J. (2010) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2010jcli3580.1 · Cited by 136 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate forcing due to tropospheric and stratospheric ozone
Kiehl, J. T., Schneider, T. L., Portmann, R. W., & Solomon, S. (1999) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/1999jd900991 · Cited by 113 · see citing works
Self-citationEnderton, D., & Marshall, J. (2008) · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1175/2008jas2680.1 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Self-citationSea ice–ocean coupling using a rescaled vertical coordinate z∗
Campin, J., Marshall, J., & Ferreira, D. (2008) · Ocean Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2008.05.005 · Cited by 102 · see citing works
Self-citationFerreira, D., Marshall, J., & Campin, J. (2009) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2009jcli3197.1 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Self-citationGoosse, H., Lefebvre, W., de Montety, A., Crespin, E., & Orsi, A. H. (2008) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0500-9 · Cited by 94 · see citing works
Atmosphere–Ocean Modeling Exploiting Fluid Isomorphisms
Marshall, J. C., Adcroft, A., Campin, J., Hill, C., & White, A. A. (2004) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/mwr2835.1 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Self-citationRepresentation of convective plumes by vertical adjustment
Klinger, B. A., Marshall, J. C., & Send, U. (1996) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/96jc00861 · Cited by 88 · see citing works
Self-citationGrise, K. M., Polvani, L. M., Tselioudis, G., Wu, Y., & Zelinka, M. D. (2013) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/grl.50675 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Can Southern Ocean Eddy Effects Be Parameterized in Climate Models?
Bryan, F. O., Gent, P. R., & Tomas, R. A. (2013) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00759.1 · Cited by 68 · see citing works
The Antarctic Sea Ice Response to the Ozone Hole in Climate Models
Sigmond, M., & Fyfe, J. C. (2013) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-13-00590.1 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Mean Climate and Variability of the Atmosphere and Ocean on an Aquaplanet
Marshall, J. C., Ferreira, D., Campin, J., & Enderton, D. (2007) · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1175/2007jas2226.1 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Self-citationMitigation of 21st century Antarctic sea ice loss by stratospheric ozone recovery
Smith, K. L., Polvani, L. M., & Marsh, D. R. (2012) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2012gl053325 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Contrasts between Antarctic and Arctic ozone depletion
Solomon, S., Portmann, R. W., & Thompson, D. W. J. (2007) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0604895104 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Self-citationLefebvre, W., & Goosse, H. (2007) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0273-6 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Frankignoul, C., Botzet, M., Carril, A. F., Kestenare, É., Drange, H., Pardaens, A. K., Terray, L., & Sutton, R. T. (2004) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0388-3 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Does the ocean impact the atmospheric response to stratospheric ozone depletion?
Sigmond, M., Fyfe, J. C., & Scinocca, J. (2010) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2010gl043773 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Carlin (2002) · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015
- Self-citation
Mutai, C. (2000) · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013
Flagged first, then by citations
1 of the 60 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Hansen, J. E., Sato, M., Hearty, P. J., Ruedy, R. A., Kelley, M., Masson‐Delmotte, V., Russell, G. L., Tselioudis, G., Cao, J., Rignot, E. J., et al. (2016) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016 · Cited by 642 · see citing works
Southern Ocean warming delayed by circumpolar upwelling and equatorward transport
Armour, K. C., Marshall, J. C., Scott, J. R., Donohoe, A., & Newsom, E. R. (2016) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo2731 · Cited by 584 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Southern Annular Mode: Variability, trends, and climate impacts across the Southern Hemisphere
Fogt, R. L., & Marshall, G. J. (2020) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.652 · Cited by 529 · see citing works
Southern Ocean Phytoplankton in a Changing Climate
Deppeler, S., & Davidson, A. T. (2017) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2017.00040 · Cited by 446 · see citing works
Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6
Roach, L. A., Dörr, J. S., Holmes, C., Massonnet, F., Blockley, E., Notz, D., Rackow, T., Raphael, M., O’Farrell, S. P., Bailey, D. A., et al. (2020) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2019gl086729 · Cited by 402 · see citing works
Self-citationThe global influence of localized dynamics in the Southern Ocean
Rintoul, S. R. (2018) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0182-3 · Cited by 364 · see citing works
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate
Jones, J. M., Gille, S. T., Goosse, H., Abram, N. J., Canziani, P. O., Charman, D. J., Clem, K. R., Crosta, X., de Lavergne, C., Eisenman, I., et al. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3103 · Cited by 360 · see citing works
A review of recent changes in Southern Ocean sea ice, their drivers and forcings
Hobbs, W. R., Massom, R., Stammerjohn, S., Reid, P., Williams, G., & Meier, W. (2016) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.06.008 · Cited by 354 · see citing works
Unprecedented springtime retreat of Antarctic sea ice in 2016
Turner, J. C., Phillips, T., Marshall, G. J., Hosking, J. S., Pope, J. O., Bracegirdle, T. J., & Deb, P. (2017) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2017gl073656 · Cited by 341 · see citing works
Sustained ocean changes contributed to sudden Antarctic sea ice retreat in late 2016
Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., Chung, C. T. Y., Holland, M. M., DuVivier, A., Thompson, L., Yang, D., & Bitz, C. M. (2019) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-018-07865-9 · Cited by 341 · see citing works
Self-citationRecord low Antarctic sea ice coverage indicates a new sea ice state
Purich, A., & Doddridge, E. W. (2023) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00961-9 · Cited by 339 · see citing works
Rapid decline in Antarctic sea ice in recent years hints at future change
Eayrs, C., Li, X., Raphael, M., & Holland, D. M. (2021) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-021-00768-3 · Cited by 302 · see citing works
The Weddell Gyre, Southern Ocean: Present Knowledge and Future Challenges
Vernet, M., Geibert, W., Hoppema, M., Brown, P. J., Haas, C., Hellmer, H. H., Jokat, W., Jullion, L., Mazloff, M. R., Bakker, D. C. E., et al. (2019) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2018rg000604 · Cited by 221 · see citing works
Abrupt ice-age shifts in southern westerly winds and Antarctic climate forced from the north
Buizert, C., Sigl, M., Severi, M., Markle, B. R., Wettstein, J. J., McConnell, J. R., Pedro, J. B., Sodemann, H., Goto‐Azuma, K., Kawamura, K., et al. (2018) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0727-5 · Cited by 214 · see citing works
Stuecker, M. F., Bitz, C. M., & Armour, K. C. (2017) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2017gl074691 · Cited by 211 · see citing works
Self-citationOzone—climate interactions and effects on solar ultraviolet radiation
Bais, A. F., Bernhard, G., McKenzie, R. L., Aucamp, P. J., Young, P. J., Ilyas, M., Jöckel, P., & Deushi, M. (2019) · Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences · doi:10.1039/c8pp90059k · Cited by 206 · see citing works
Polar Climate Change as Manifest in Atmospheric Circulation
Screen, J. A., Bracegirdle, T. J., & Simmonds, I. (2018) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-018-0111-4 · Cited by 191 · see citing works
Review article: Earth's ice imbalance
Slater, T., Lawrence, I. R., Otosaka, I., Shepherd, A. P., Gourmelen, N., Jakob, L., Tepes, P., Gilbert, L., & Nienow, P. (2021) · The Cryosphere · doi:10.5194/tc-15-233-2021 · Cited by 182 · see citing works
CNRS, L.-I., & Sallée, J. (2018) · Oceanography · doi:10.5670/oceanog.2018.215 · Cited by 172 · see citing works
Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends
Zhang, L., Delworth, T. L., Cooke, W. F., & Yang, X. (2018) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0350-3 · Cited by 169 · see citing works
Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Change: Contrasts, Commonalities, and Causes
Maksym, T. (2018) · Annual Review of Marine Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-010816-060610 · Cited by 161 · see citing works
Marshall, J. C., Armour, K. C., Scott, J. R., Kostov, Y., Hausmann, U., Ferreira, D., Shepherd, T. G., & Bitz, C. M. (2014) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2013.0040 · Cited by 155 · see citing works
Self-citationPauling, A. G., Bitz, C. M., Smith, I. J., & Langhorne, P. J. (2016) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-15-0501.1 · Cited by 153 · see citing works
Self-citationEayrs, C., Holland, D. M., Francis, D., Wagner, T. J. W., Kumar, R., & Li, X. (2019) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2018rg000631 · Cited by 152 · see citing works
Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies
Bulgin, C. E., Merchant, C. J., & Ferreira, D. (2020) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-020-64785-9 · Cited by 150 · see citing works
Self-citationStratospheric ozone, UV radiation, and climate interactions
Bernhard, G. H., Bais, A. F., Aucamp, P. J., Klekociuk, A. R., Liley, J. B., & McKenzie, R. L. (2023) · Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences · doi:10.1007/s43630-023-00371-y · Cited by 138 · see citing works
McConnell, J. R., Burke, A., Dunbar, N. W., Köhler, P., Thomas, J. L., Arienzo, M. M., Chellman, N. J., Maselli, O. J., Sigl, M., Adkins, J. F., et al. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1705595114 · Cited by 135 · see citing works
Fast and slow responses of Southern Ocean sea surface temperature to SAM in coupled climate models
Kostov, Y., Marshall, J., Hausmann, U., Armour, K. C., Ferreira, D., & Holland, M. M. (2017) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3162-z · Cited by 129 · see citing works
Self-citationThomas, E. R., Allen, C. S., Étourneau, J., King, A., Severi, M., Winton, V. H. L., Mueller, J., Crosta, X., & Peck, V. L. (2019) · Geosciences · doi:10.3390/geosciences9120506 · Cited by 126 · see citing works
Purich, A., Cai, W., England, M. H., & Cowan, T. (2016) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms10409 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
Barnes, P. W., Robson, T. M., Zepp, R. G., Bornman, J. F., Jansen, M. A. K., Ossola, R., Wang, Q.-W., Robinson, S. A., Foereid, B., Klekociuk, A. R., et al. (2023) · Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences · doi:10.1007/s43630-023-00376-7 · Cited by 113 · see citing works
Liu, W., Lu, J., Xie, S., & Fedorov, A. V. (2018) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-17-0761.1 · Cited by 110 · see citing works
Impact of Winds and Southern Ocean SSTs on Antarctic Sea Ice Trends and Variability
Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, E., Roach, L. A., Donohoe, A., & Ding, Q. (2020) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0386.1 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Shi, J., Xie, S., & Talley, L. D. (2018) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-18-0170.1 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
Delayed Antarctic sea-ice decline in high-resolution climate change simulations
Rackow, T., Danilov, S. D., Goessling, H., Hellmer, H. H., Sein, D., Semmler, T., Sidorenko, D., & Jung, T. J. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28259-y · Cited by 106 · see citing works
Rind, D. H., Orbe, C., Jonas, J., Nazarenko, L., Zhou, T., Kelley, M., Lacis, A. A., Shindell, D. T., Faluvegi, G., Romanou, A., et al. (2020) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2019jd032204 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Global impacts of recent Southern Ocean cooling
Kang, S. M., Yu, Y., Deser, C., Zhang, X., Kang, I., Lee, S., Rodgers, K. B., & Ceppi, P. (2023) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2300881120 · Cited by 105 · see citing works
Hernández, A., Martín‐Puertas, C., Moffa-Sanchez, P. L., Moreno‐Chamarro, E., Ortega, P., Blockley, S. P. E., Cobb, K. M., Comas‐Bru, L., Giralt, S., Goosse, H., et al. (2020) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103286 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
Observational Evidence for a Regime Shift in Summer Antarctic Sea Ice
Hobbs, W. R., Spence, P., Meyer, A., Schroeter, S., Fraser, A. D., Reid, P., Tian, T. R., Wang, Z., Liniger, G., Doddridge, E. W., et al. (2024) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-23-0479.1 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
Modulation of the Seasonal Cycle of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Related to the Southern Annular Mode
Doddridge, E. W., & Marshall, J. C. (2017) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2017gl074319 · Cited by 102 · see citing works
Self-citationSouthern Ocean Overturning Compensation in an Eddy-Resolving Climate Simulation
Bishop, S. P., Gent, P. R., Bryan, F. O., Thompson, A. F., Long, M. C., & Abernathey, R. (2016) · Journal of Physical Oceanography · doi:10.1175/jpo-d-15-0177.1 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models
Holland, M. M., Landrum, L., Kostov, Y., & Marshall, J. C. (2016) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3424-9 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Self-citationSouthern Ocean warming and its climatic impacts
Cai, W., Gao, L., Luo, Y., Li, X., Zheng, X., Zhang, X., Cheng, X., Jia, F., Purich, A., Santoso, A., et al. (2023) · 中国科学通报：英文版 · doi:10.1016/j.scib.2023.03.049 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Schneider, D. P., & Deser, C. (2017) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3893-5 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Antarctic Glacial Melt as a Driver of Recent Southern Ocean Climate Trends
Rye, C. D., Marshall, J. C., Kelley, M., Russell, G. L., Nazarenko, L., Kostov, Y., Schmidt, G. A., & Hansen, J. E. (2020) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2019gl086892 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Self-citationPurich, A., & England, M. H. (2019) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2019gl082671 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Bertler, N. A. N., Conway, H. B., Dahl‐Jensen, D., Emanuelsson, B. D., Winstrup, M., Vallelonga, P., Lee, J. E., Brook, E. J., Severinghaus, J. P., Fudge, T. J., et al. (2018) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-14-193-2018 · Cited by 79 · see citing works
The Antarctic ozone hole and the pattern effect on climate sensitivity
Hartmann, D. L. (2022) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2207889119 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Yamazaki, K., Aoki, S., Katsumata, K., Hirano, D., & Nakayama, Y. (2021) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.abf8755 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications
Cavanagh, R. D., Murphy, E. J., Bracegirdle, T. J., Turner, J. C., Knowland, C. A., Corney, S. P., Smith, W. O. J., Waluda, C. M., Johnston, N. M., Bellerby, R. G. J., et al. (2017) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2017.00308 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
Antarctic sea-ice expansion and Southern Ocean cooling linked to tropical variability
Chung, E., Kim, S., Timmermann, A., Ha, K., Lee, S., Stuecker, M. F., Rodgers, K. B., Lee, S., & Huang, L. (2022) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01339-z · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Vertical ocean heat redistribution sustaining sea-ice concentration trends in the Ross Sea
Lecomte, O., Goosse, H., Fichefet, T., de Lavergne, C., Barthélemy, A., & Zunz, V. (2017) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00347-4 · Cited by 68 · see citing works
2023: Weather and Climate Extremes Hitting the Globe with Emerging Features
Zhang, W., Clark, R. T., Zhou, T., Li, L., Li, C., Rivera, J. A., Zhang, L., Gui, K., Zhang, T., Li, L., et al. (2024) · Advances in Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1007/s00376-024-4080-3 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Pauling, A. G., Smith, I. J., Langhorne, P. J., & Bitz, C. M. (2017) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2017gl075017 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Self-citationMulti-decadal trends in Antarctic sea-ice extent driven by ENSO–SAM over the last 2,000 years
Crosta, X., Étourneau, J., Orme, L. C., Dalaiden, Q., Campagne, P., Swingedouw, D., Goosse, H., Massé, G., Miettinen, A., McKay, R. M., et al. (2021) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-021-00697-1 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Bracegirdle, T. J., Hyder, P., & Holmes, C. (2017) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-17-0320.1 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Effects of Buoyancy and Wind Forcing on Southern Ocean Climate Change
Shi, J., Talley, L. D., Xie, S., Liu, W., & Gille, S. T. (2020) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-0877.1 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Schroeter, S., Okane, T., & Sandery, P. A. (2023) · The Cryosphere · doi:10.5194/tc-17-701-2023 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Springtime winds drive Ross Sea ice variability and change in the following autumn
Holland, M. M., Landrum, L., Raphael, M., & Stammerjohn, S. E. (2017) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00820-0 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Son, S.-W., Han, B.-R., Garfinkel, C. I., Kim, S.-Y., Park, R., Abraham, N. L., Akiyoshi, H., Archibald, A. T., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M. P., et al. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabf21 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
United Nations Environment Programme, E. E. A. P. (2016) · Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences · doi:10.1039/c6pp90004f · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Antarctic sea ice over the past 130 000 years – Part 1: a review of what proxy records tell us
Crosta, X., Kohfeld, K. E., Bostock, H., Chadwick, M., DuVivier, A. K., Esper, O., Étourneau, J., Jones, J., Leventer, A. R., Müller, J., et al. (2022) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Emerging evidence of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment
Abram, N. J., Purich, A., England, M. H., McCormack, F. S., Strugnell, J. M., Bergstrom, D. M., Vance, T. R., Stål, T., Wienecke, B. C., Heil, P., et al. (2025) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09349-5 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Sun, S., & Eisenman, I. (2021) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-021-21412-z · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Eddy Compensation Dampens Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Response to Westerly Wind Trends
Doddridge, E. W., Marshall, J. C., Song, H., Campin, J., Kelley, M., & Nazarenko, L. (2019) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2019gl082758 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Self-citationBracegirdle, T. J., Colleoni, F., Abram, N. J., Bertler, N. A. N., Dixon, D. A., England, M., Favier, V., Fogwill, C. J., Fyfe, J. C., Goodwin, I., et al. (2019) · Geosciences · doi:10.3390/geosciences9060255 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Verfaillie, D., Pelletier, C., Goosse, H., Jourdain, N. C., Bull, C. Y. S., Dalaiden, Q., Favier, V., Fichefet, T., & Wille, J. (2022) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-022-00458-x · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Southern Ocean deep convection as a driver of Antarctic warming events
Pedro, J. B., Martin, T., Steig, E. J., Jochum, M., Park, W., & Rasmussen, S. O. (2016) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2016gl067861 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Brenna, H., Kutterolf, S., & Krüger, K. (2019) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-019-45630-0 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Solomon, A., Polvani, L. M., Smith, K. L., & Abernathey, R. (2015) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2015gl064744 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Is There a Tropical Response to Recent Observed Southern Ocean Cooling?
Zhang, X., Deser, C., & Sun, L. (2020) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2020gl091235 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Jena, B., Bajish, C. C., Turner, J. C., Ravichandran, M., Anilkumar, N. P., & Kshitija, S. (2022) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-022-00243-9 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Cabré, A., Marinov, I., & Gnanadesikan, A. (2017) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0741.1 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Benthic fauna declined on a whitening Antarctic continental shelf
Pineda-Metz, S. E. A., Gerdes, D., & Richter, C. (2020) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-16093-z · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Inability of stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections to preserve the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
McCusker, K. E., Battisti, D. S., & Bitz, C. M. (2015) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2015gl064314 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Self-citationKostov, Y., Ferreira, D., Armour, K. C., & Marshall, J. C. (2018) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2017gl074964 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Self-citationRole of Stratospheric Processes in Climate Change: Advances and Challenges
Tian, W., Huang, J., Zhang, J., Xie, F., Wang, W., & Peng, Y. (2023) · Advances in Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1007/s00376-023-2341-1 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Bilbao, R. A. F., Gregory, J. M., Bouttes, N., Palmer, M. D., & Stott, P. A. (2019) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04910-1 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Mechanisms controlling the SST air-sea heat flux feedback and its dependence on spatial scale
Hausmann, U., Czaja, A., & Marshall, J. C. (2016) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3142-3 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Self-citationSmith, K. L., & Polvani, L. M. (2016) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3230-4 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Responses of Arctic sea ice to stratospheric ozone depletion
Zhang, J., Tian, W., Pyle, J. A., Keeble, J., Abraham, N. L., Chipperfield, M. P., Xie, F., Yang, Q., Mu, L., Ren, H., et al. (2022) · 中国科学通报：英文版 · doi:10.1016/j.scib.2022.03.015 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Sensitivity of Antarctic Bottom Water to Changes in Surface Buoyancy Fluxes
Snow, K., Hogg, A. M., Sloyan, B. M., & Downes, S. M. (2015) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-15-0467.1 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Seasonal sea-ice variability and its trend in the Weddell Sea sector of West Antarctica
Kumar, A., Yadav, J., & Mohan, R. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abdc88 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Ivanciu, I., Matthes, K., Arne Biastoch, B., Wahl, S., & Harlaß, J. (2022) · Weather and Climate Dynamics · doi:10.5194/wcd-3-139-2022 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Winds and Meltwater Together Lead to Southern Ocean Surface Cooling and Sea Ice Expansion
Roach, L. A., Mankoff, K. D., Romanou, A., Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, E., Haine, T. W. N., & Schmidt, G. A. (2023) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2023gl105948 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
The impacts of El Niño on the observed sea ice budget of West Antarctica
Pope, J. O., Holland, P. R., Orr, A., Marshall, G. J., & Phillips, T. (2017) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2017gl073414 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Shi, F., Yin, Q., Nikolova, I., Berger, A., Ramstein, G., & Guo, Z. (2020) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106164 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Polvani, L. M., Banerjee, A., Chemke, R., Doddridge, E. W., Ferreira, D., Gnanadesikan, A., Holland, M. M., Kostov, Y., Marshall, J. C., Seviour, W. J. M., et al. (2021) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2021gl094871 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Self-citationGoosse, H. (2016) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3154-z · Cited by 35 · see citing works
The Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Response to Ozone Depletion: A Multimodel Comparison
Seviour, W. J. M., Codron, F., Doddridge, E. W., Ferreira, D., Gnanadesikan, A., Kelley, M., Kostov, Y., Marshall, J. C., Polvani, L. M., Thomas, J. L., et al. (2019) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-0109.1 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Impacts of Combined SAM and ENSO on Seasonal Antarctic Sea Ice Changes
Wang, J., Luo, H., Yu, L., Li, X., Holland, P. R., & Yang, Q. (2023) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-22-0679.1 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Estimating the extent of Antarctic summer sea ice during the Heroic Age of Antarctic Exploration
Edinburgh, T., & Day, J. J. (2016) · The Cryosphere · doi:10.5194/tc-10-2721-2016 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Marchi, S., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H., Zunz, V., Tietsche, S., Day, J. J., & Hawkins, E. (2018) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4292-2 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Estimates of Air–Sea Feedbacks on Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the Southern Ocean
Hausmann, U., Czaja, A., & Marshall, J. C. (2015) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-15-0015.1 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Transient Response of the Southern Ocean to Stratospheric Ozone Depletion
Seviour, W. J. M., Gnanadesikan, A., & Waugh, D. W. (2016) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0198.1 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
“Climate response functions” for the Arctic Ocean: a proposed coordinated modelling experiment
Marshall, J. C., Scott, J. R., & Proshutinsky, A. Y. (2017) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-10-2833-2017 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Self-citationGaining (and losing) Antarctic sea ice: variability, trends and mechanisms
Stammerjohn, S. E., & Maksym, T. (2016) · doi:10.1002/9781118778371.ch10 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Time Scales of Southern Ocean Eddy Equilibration
Sinha, A., & Abernathey, R. (2016) · Journal of Physical Oceanography · doi:10.1175/jpo-d-16-0041.1 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
The Role of Sea Ice in Sub-seasonal Predictability
Chevallier, M., Massonnet, F., Goessling, H., Guémas, V., & Jung, T. J. (2018) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-811714-9.00010-3 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Zhou, C., Zhang, T., & Zheng, L. (2019) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs11070821 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
- Authors
- Ferreira, D., Marshall, J., Bitz, C. M., Solomon, S., & Plumb, A.
- Affiliations
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- University of Washington (US)
- Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts
- Venue
- Journal of Climate
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2015-02-01
- Volume
- 28
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 1206-1226
- ISSN
- 0894-8755 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0442
- OpenAlex
- W2072436020
- Cited by
- 281
- References
- 60
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 36 · 2023: 32 · 2022: 32 · 2021: 22 · 2020: 29 · 2019: 15 · 2018: 23 · 2017: 27 · 2016: 23 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 1
- FWCI
- 15.98
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of Climate (publishedVersion)
- DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- CentAUR (University of Reading) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (1341497)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Keywords
- Antarctic ozone hole, ozone depletion, Southern Ocean, sea ice extent, sea surface temperature, Southern Annular Mode, Ekman drift, upwelling, sea ice edge, westerlies, radiative forcing
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
