The DOI matches its Crossref record; 16 of the 16 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Sunspot cycle 24: Smallest cycle in 100 years?
Abstract
Predicting the peak amplitude of the sunspot cycle is a key goal of solar‐terrestrial physics. The precursor method currently favored for such predictions is based on the dynamo model in which large‐scale polar fields on the decline of the 11‐year solar cycle are converted to toroidal (sunspot) fields during the subsequent cycle. The strength of the polar fields during the decay of one cycle is assumed to be an indicator of peak sunspot activity for the following cycle. Polar fields reach their peak amplitude several years after sunspot maximum; the time of peak strength is signaled by the onset of a strong annual modulation of polar fields due to the 7° tilt of the solar equator to the ecliptic plane. Using direct polar field measurements, now available for four solar cycles, we predict that the approaching solar cycle 24 (∼2011 maximum) will have a peak smoothed monthly sunspot number of 75 ± 8, making it potentially the smallest cycle in the last 100 years.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
A doubling of the Sun's coronal magnetic field during the past 100 years
Lockwood, M., Stamper, R., & Wild, M. N. (1999) · Nature · doi:10.1038/20867 · Cited by 548
Using Dynamo Theory to predict the sunspot number during Solar Cycle 21
Schatten, K. H., Scherrer, P. H., Svalgaard, L., & Wilcox, J. M. (1978) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/gl005i005p00411 · Cited by 327
Self-citationThe Sun's Polar Magnetic Field.
Babcock, H. D. (1959) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.1086/146726 · Cited by 300
The shape of the sunspot cycle
Hathaway, D. H., Wilson, R. M., & Reichmann, E. J. (1994) · Solar Physics · doi:10.1007/bf00654090 · Cited by 285
The 1859 Solar–Terrestrial Disturbance And the Current Limits of Extreme Space Weather Activity
Cliver, E. W., & Svalgaard, L. (2004) · Solar Physics · doi:10.1007/s11207-005-4980-z · Cited by 251
Self-citationGroup Sunspot Numbers: Sunspot Cycle Characteristics
Hathaway, D. H., Wilson, R. M., & Reichmann, E. J. (2002) · Solar Physics · doi:10.1023/a:1022425402664 · Cited by 250
Solar cosmic ray events for the period 1561–1994: 1. Identification in polar ice, 1561–1950
McCracken, K. G., Dreschhoff, G. A. M., Zeller, E. J., Smart, D. F., & Shea, M. A. (2001) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics · doi:10.1029/2000ja000237 · Cited by 196
The extended solar activity cycle
Wilson, P. R., Altrocki, R. C., Harvey, K. L., Martin, S. F., & Snodgrass, H. B. (1988) · Nature · doi:10.1038/333748a0 · Cited by 159
What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate
Hathaway, D. H., & Wilson, R. M. (2004) · Solar Physics · doi:10.1007/s11207-005-3996-8 · Cited by 156
An Early Solar Dynamo Prediction: Cycle 23 ∼ Cycle 22
Schatten, K. H., & Pesnell, W. D. (1993) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/93gl02431 · Cited by 110
Cited by
Hathaway, D. H. (2015) · Living Reviews in Solar Physics · doi:10.1007/lrsp-2015-4 · Cited by 1,180
Dynamo Models of the Solar Cycle
Charbonneau, P. (2010) · Living Reviews in Solar Physics · doi:10.12942/lrsp-2010-3 · Cited by 649
The Heliospheric Magnetic Field
Owens, M. J., & Forsyth, R. J. (2013) · Living Reviews in Solar Physics · doi:10.12942/lrsp-2013-5 · Cited by 263
Schwadron, N. A., Rahmanifard, F., Wilson, J., Jordan, A. P., Spence, H. E., Joyce, C. J., Blake, J. B., Case, A. W., de Wet, W., Farrell, W. M., et al. (2018) · Space Weather · doi:10.1002/2017sw001803 · Cited by 53
Metadata
- Authors
- Svalgaard, L., Cliver, E. W., & Kamide, Y.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2005-01
- Volume
- 32
- Issue
- 1
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2148589488
- Cited by
- 391
- References
- 16
- FWCI
- 12.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Sunspot cycle 24: Smallest cycle in 100 years? https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1029/2004gl021664
- The paper
- Svalgaard, L., Cliver, E. W., & Kamide, Y. (2005). Sunspot cycle 24: Smallest cycle in 100 years? Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004gl021664
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
