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Advancing dynamical prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall
Abstract
Despite advances in seasonal climate forecasting using dynamical models, skill in predicting the Indian monsoon by such methods has proven poor. Our analysis identifies a flaw in the hitherto popular design of prediction systems in which atmospheric models are driven with a projected ocean surface temperature. Such a configuration presupposes Indian monsoon variability to be a consequence solely of the atmosphere reacting to the ocean. It is becoming increasingly evident that the Indian monsoon is suitably described as a fully coupled ocean‐land‐atmospheric system, though implications for skill have not been demonstrated. We discover significant improvements in the skill of Indian monsoon predictions when atmospheric models are not constrained by specified observed SSTs in the Indian Ocean warm pool region. Evidence comes from intercomparing 50‐years of monsoon skill in atmospheric models using specified SSTs with skill in coupled ocean atmosphere models.
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Citations
Cited by
Unraveling the Mystery of Indian Monsoon Failure During El Niño
Kumar, K. K., Rajagopalan, B., Hoerling, M., Bates, G., & Cane, M. (2006) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1131152 · Cited by 784
Self-citationFundamental challenge in simulation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall
Wang, B., Ding, Q., Fu, X., Kang, I., Jin, K., Shukla, J., & Doblas‐Reyes, F. (2005) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2005gl022734 · Cited by 655
Wang, B., Lee, J.-Y., Kang, I.-S., Shukla, J., Park, C.-K., Kumar, A., Schemm, J., Cocke, S., Kug, J.-S., Luo, J.-J., et al. (2009) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0460-0 · Cited by 409
Kucharski, F., Bracco, A., Yoo, J. H., & Molteni, F. (2007) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli4254.1 · Cited by 241
Dynamics of the boreal summer African monsoon in the NSIPP1 atmospheric model.
Giannini, A., Saravanan, R., & Chang, P. (2005) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0056-x · Cited by 71
Metadata
- Authors
- Krishna Kumar, K., Hoerling, M., & Rajagopalan, B.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2005-04
- Volume
- 32
- Issue
- 8
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2107473870
- Cited by
- 235
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 10.66
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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