Low-frequency variability of the Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship and the tropical Atlantic: the “weakening” of the 1980s and 1990s.
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The Indian monsoon–El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) relationship, according to which a drier than normal monsoon season precedes peak El Niño conditions, weakened significantly during the last two decades of the twentieth century. In this work an ensemble of integrations of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to an ocean model in the Indian Basin and forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) elsewhere is used to investigate the causes of such a weakening. The observed interdecadal variability of the ENSO–monsoon relationship during the period 1950–99 is realistically simulated by the model and a dominant portion of the variability is associated with changes in the tropical Atlantic SSTs in boreal summer. In correspondence to ENSO, the tropical Atlantic SSTs display negative anomalies south of the equator in the last quarter of the twentieth century and weakly positive anomalies in the previous period. Those anomalies in turn produce heating anomalies, which excite a Rossby wave response in the Indian Ocean in both the model and the reanalysis data, impacting the time-mean monsoon circulation. The proposed mechanism of remote response of the Indian rainfall to tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures is further tested forcing the AGCM coupled to the ocean model in the Indian Basin with climatological SSTs in the Atlantic Ocean and observed anomalies elsewhere. In this second ensemble the ENSO–monsoon relationship is characterized by a stable and strong anticorrelation through the whole second half of the twentieth century.
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The AZM impacts the Indian summer monsoon, altering the ENSO-ISM connection.
“The AZM impacts the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), altering the ENSO-ISM connection (Kucharski et al., 2007(Kucharski et al., , 2008;;Wang et al., 2009;Barimalala et al., 2012Barimalala et al., , 2013)).”
From The tropical atlantic observing system (2019) · cites this paper as Kucharski et al., 2007
The section “The role of tropical Atlantic SSTs” reports that Atlantic SST anomalies affect Indian monsoon circulation and reduce the anticorrelation between ENSO and Indian monsoon rainfall. The Discussion and conclusions likewise links south-equatorial Atlantic SST anomalies to a weakened ENSO–monsoon relationship. Neither passage identifies those anomalies specifically as the Atlantic Zonal Mode (AZM), so the AZM-specific attribution is not established by our copy. Page numbers were not supplied. (LLM, conf=0.84)
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- Authors
- Kucharski, F., Bracco, A., Yoo, J. H., & Molteni, F.
- Affiliations
- The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) (IT)
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (US)
- Venue
- Journal of Climate
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2007-08-15
- Volume
- 20
- Issue
- 16
- Pages
- 4255-4266
- ISSN
- 0894-8755 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0442
- OpenAlex
- W2000641221
- Cited by
- 241
- References
- 58
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 19 · 2021: 29 · 2020: 29 · 2019: 12 · 2018: 12 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 15 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 10 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 7.84
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of Climate (publishedVersion)
- Open Access Server of the Woods Hole Scientific Community (Woods Hole Scientific Community) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Commission
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Keywords
- Indian monsoon, ENSO, interdecadal variability, Rossby wave response
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