Emissions from international shipping: 2. Impact of future technologies on scenarios until 2050

Abstract

In this study the today's fleet‐average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts are used to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future technology scenarios, first upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements are discussed. We present geographically resolved emission inventory scenarios until 2050, based on a mid‐term prognosis for 2020 and a long‐term prognosis for 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions on future ship traffic demands and technological improvements. The four future ship traffic demand scenarios are mainly determined by the economic growth, which follows the IPCC SRES storylines. The resulting fuel consumption is projected through extrapolations of historical trends in economic growth, total seaborne trade and number of ships, as well as the average installed power per ship. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel‐only fleet in 2020 resulting in fuel consumption between 382 and 409 million metric tons (Mt). For 2050 one technology scenario assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel‐only fleet can be saved by applying future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption that varies between 402 and 543 Mt. The other scenario is a business‐as‐usual scenario for a diesel‐only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate between 536 and 725 Mt. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced, possible technology reduction factors are applied to the today's fleet‐average emission factors of all important species to estimate future ship emissions. Combining the four traffic demand scenarios with the four technology scenarios, our results suggest emissions between 8.8 and 25.0 Tg (NO 2) in 2020, and between 3.1 to 38.8 Tg (NO 2) in 2050. The development of forecast scenarios for CO 2, NO x, SO x, CO, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter is driven by the requirements for global model studies of the effects of these emissions on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and on climate. The developed scenarios are suitable for use as input for chemical transport models (CTMs) and coupled chemistry‐climate models (CCMs).