Future emissions from shipping and petroleum activities in the Arctic
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Abstract
Abstract. The Arctic sea-ice is retreating faster than predicted by climate models and could become ice free during summer this century. The reduced sea-ice extent may effectively "unlock" the Arctic Ocean to increased human activities such as transit shipping and expanded oil and gas production. Travel time between Europe and the north Pacific Region can be reduced by up to 50 % with low sea-ice levels and the use of this route could increase substantially as the sea-ice retreats. Oil and gas activities already occur in the Arctic region and given the large undiscovered petroleum resources increased activity could be expected with reduced sea-ice. We use a bottom-up shipping model and a detailed global energy market model to construct emission inventories of Arctic shipping and petroleum activities in 2030 and 2050 given estimated sea-ice extents. The emission inventories are on a 1×1 degree grid and cover both short-lived components (SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, BC, OC) and the long-lived greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O). We find rapid growth in transit shipping due to increased profitability with the shorter transit times compensating for increased costs in traversing areas of sea-ice. Oil and gas production remains relatively stable leading to reduced emissions from emission factor improvements. The location of oil and gas production moves into locations requiring more ship transport relative to pipeline transport, leading to rapid emissions growth from oil and gas transport via ship. Our emission inventories for the Arctic region will be used as input into chemical transport, radiative transfer, and climate models to quantify the role of Arctic activities in climate change compared to similar emissions occurring outside of the Arctic region.
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While the United States accounted for 18% of Arctic oil production from 1990 to 2004, the Alaskan Arctic was estimated to be responsible for 34% of NOx and 29% of CO emissions from Arctic oil and gas extraction.
“While the United States accounted for 18% of Arctic oil production from 1990 to 2004, the Alaskan Arctic was estimated to be responsible for 34% of NO x and 29% of CO emissions from Arctic oil and gas extraction (Peters et al., 2011).”
From Local Arctic Air Pollution: A Neglected but Serious Problem (2018) · cites this paper as Peters et al., 2011
Except for limited data sets on shipping and some fossil fuel extraction emissions, no Arctic-specific future emission scenarios exist that encompass all significant emission sectors for local air pollution.
“Except for a limited number of data sets on shipping and some fossil fuel extraction emissions (Corbett et al., 2010; Peters et al., 2011; Winther et al., 2014), no Arctic-speci fi c future emission scenarios exist that encompass all of the signi fi cant emission sectors for local air pollution.”
From Local Arctic Air Pollution: A Neglected but Serious Problem (2018) · cites this paper as Peters et al., 2011
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Cites
Container shipping on the Northern Sea Route
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Stohl, A., Klimont, Z., Eckhardt, S., Kupiainen, K., Shevchenko, V. P., Kopeikin, V. M., & Novigatsky, A. N. (2013) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-13-8833-2013 · Cited by 383 · see citing works
Local Arctic Air Pollution: A Neglected but Serious Problem
Schmale, J., Arnold, S. R., Law, K. S., Thorp, T., Anenberg, S., Simpson, W. R., Mao, J., & Pratt, K. A. (2018) · Earth's Future · doi:10.1029/2018ef000952 · Cited by 219 · see citing works
“To date, several shipping emission inventories have been developed either for the entire Arctic (Corbett et al., 2010; Peters et al., 2011; Winther et al., 2014) or for regions like the Norwegian or Baltic Seas (Jalkanen et al., SCHMALE ET AL.”
BackgroundInfluentialAmplification of Arctic warming by past air pollution reductions in Europe
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The environmental costs and economic implications of container shipping on the Northern Sea Route
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- Authors
- Peters, G. P., Nilssen, T. B., Lindholt, L., Eide, M. S., Glomsrød, S., Eide, L. I., & Fuglestvedt, J. S.
- Affiliations
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research (NO)
- DNV (Norway) (NO)
- Statistics Norway (NO)
- Venue
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
- Publisher
- Copernicus GmbH
- Published
- 2011-06-06
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 5305-5320
- ISSN
- 1680-7316 (ISSN-L)
- 1680-7324
- OpenAlex
- W2135585804
- Cited by
- 164
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 13 · 2021: 24 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 14 · 2018: 13 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 9 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 5
- FWCI
- 31.07
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Atmospheric chemistry and physics (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- Norges Forskningsråd (184873/S30)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Arctic and Russian Policy Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Maritime Transport Emissions and Efficiency
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Keywords
- sea ice retreat, Arctic Ocean, emission inventory, greenhouse gas emissions, Arctic climate change
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