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A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration
Open accessAbstract
As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, integrations with a common design have been undertaken with eleven different climate models to compare the response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) to time‐dependent climate change caused by increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Over 140 years, during which the CO 2 concentration quadruples, the circulation strength declines gradually in all models, by between 10 and 50%. No model shows a rapid or complete collapse, despite the fairly rapid increase and high final concentration of CO 2. The models having the strongest overturning in the control climate tend to show the largest THC reductions. In all models, the THC weakening is caused more by changes in surface heat flux than by changes in surface water flux. No model shows a cooling anywhere, because the greenhouse warming is dominant.
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Cited by
Kwiatkowski, L., Torres, O., Bopp, L., Aumont, O., Chamberlain, M., Christian, J. R., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Ilyina, T., John, J. G., et al. (2020) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020 · Cited by 897
“Conversely, benthic pH changes are strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which transports anthropogenic carbon from the upper ocean to the seafloor and is variably impacted by climate change across models (e.g. Gregory et al., 2005; Cheng et al., 2013).”
BackgroundOn the role of the Agulhas system in ocean circulation and climate
Beal, L. M., De Ruijter, W. P. M., Biastoch, A., Zahn, R., SCOR/WCRP/IAPSO Working Group 136, Cronin, M., Hermes, J., Lutjeharms, J., Quartly, G., Tozuka, T., et al. (2011) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature09983 · Cited by 652
Enhanced warming of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean under climate change
Saba, V. S., Griffies, S. M., Anderson, W. G., Winton, M., Alexander, M. A., Delworth, T. L., Hare, J. A., Harrison, M. J., Rosati, A., Vecchi, G. A., et al. (2016) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans · doi:10.1002/2015jc011346 · Cited by 468
Projected Changes in East African Rainy Seasons
Cook, K. H., & Vizy, E. K. (2013) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00455.1 · Cited by 121
Anthropogenic modification of the oceans
Tyrrell, T. (2011) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0334 · Cited by 91
Metadata
- Authors
- Gregory, J. M., Dixon, K. W., Stouffer, R. J., Weaver, A. J., Driesschaert, E., Eby, M., Fichefet, T., Hasumi, H., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J. H., Kamenkovich, I. V., Levermann, A., Montoya, M., Murakami, S., Nawrath, S., Oka, A., Sokolov, A. P., & Thorpe, R. B.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2005-06
- Volume
- 32
- Issue
- 12
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2149352528
- Cited by
- 607
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 40.75
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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- Gregory, J. M., Dixon, K. W., Stouffer, R. J., Weaver, A. J., Driesschaert, E., Eby, M., Fichefet, T., Hasumi, H., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J. H., Kamenkovich, I. V., Levermann, A., Montoya, M., Murakami, S., Nawrath, S., Oka, A., Sokolov, A. P., & Thorpe, R. B. (2005). A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl023209
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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