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When will the Antarctic ozone hole recover?
Abstract
The Antarctic ozone hole demonstrates large‐scale, man‐made affects on our atmosphere. Surface observations now show that human produced ozone‐depleting substances (ODSs) are declining. The ozone hole should soon start to diminish because of this decline. We demonstrate a parametric model of ozone hole area that is based upon a new algorithm for estimating chlorine and bromine levels over Antarctica and late spring Antarctic stratospheric temperatures. This model explains 95% of the ozone hole area's variance. We then use future ODS levels to predict ozone hole recovery. Full recovery to 1980 levels will occur around 2068 and the area will very slowly decline between 2001 and 2017. Detection of a statistically significant decrease of area will not occur until about 2024. We further show that nominal Antarctic stratospheric greenhouse gas forced temperature change should have a small impact on the ozone hole.
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Citations
Cited by
Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer
Solomon, S., Ivy, D. J., Kinnison, D., Mills, M. J., Neely, R. R., & Schmidt, A. (2016) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aae0061 · Cited by 734
Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Metrics
Fuglestvedt, J. S., Shine, K. P., Berntsen, T., Cook, J., Lee, D. S., Stenke, A., Skeie, R. B., Velders, G. J. M., & Waitz, I. A. (2010) · Atmospheric Environment · doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.04.044 · Cited by 458
An overview of geoengineering of climate using stratospheric sulphate aerosols
Rasch, P. J., Tilmes, S., Turco, R. P., Robock, A., Oman, L., Chen, C.-C. (., Stenchikov, G. L., & Garcia, R. R. (2008) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0131 · Cited by 326
A new formulation of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC)
Newman, P. A., Daniel, J. S., Waugh, D. W., & Nash, E. R. (2007) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-7-4537-2007 · Cited by 290
Self-citationDynamics, stratospheric ozone, and climate change
Shepherd, T. G. (2008) · Atmosphere-Ocean · doi:10.3137/ao.460106 · Cited by 153
Metadata
- Authors
- Newman, P. A., Nash, E. R., Kawa, S. R., Montzka, S. A., & Schauffler, S. M.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2006-06
- Volume
- 33
- Issue
- 12
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2094403490
- Cited by
- 182
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 10.46
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Newman, P. A., Nash, E. R., Kawa, S. R., Montzka, S. A., & Schauffler, S. M. (2006). When will the Antarctic ozone hole recover? Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl025232
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
