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Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations
Abstract
Climate model simulations consistently show that in response to greenhouse gas forcing surface temperatures over land increase more rapidly than over sea. The enhanced warming over land is not simply a transient effect, since it is also present in equilibrium conditions. We examine 20 models from the IPCC AR4 database. The global land/sea warming ratio varies in the range 1.36–1.84, independent of global mean temperature change. In the presence of increasing radiative forcing, the warming ratio for a single model is fairly constant in time, implying that the land/sea temperature difference increases with time. The warming ratio varies with latitude, with a minimum in equatorial latitudes, and maxima in the subtropics. A simple explanation for these findings is provided, and comparisons are made with observations. For the low‐latitude (40°S–40°N) mean, the models suggest a warming ratio of 1.51 ± 0.13, while recent observations suggest a ratio of 1.54 ± 0.09.
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Cites
Radiative forcing and climate response
Hansen, J., Sato, M., & Ruedy, R. (1997) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/96jd03436 · Cited by 2,241
Cited by
Global surface temperature change
Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., & Lo, K. (2010) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2010rg000345 · Cited by 3,081
Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data
Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., Bartlein, P. J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Abe-Ouchi, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., & Zhao, Y. (2012) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1456 · Cited by 1,013
Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets
Seneviratne, S. I., Donat, M. G., Pitman, A. J., Knutti, R., & Wilby, R. L. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature16542 · Cited by 743
Trends in continental temperature and humidity directly linked to ocean warming
Byrne, M. P., & O’Gorman, P. A. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1722312115 · Cited by 371
The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 1: Overview and over-arching analysis plan
Kageyama, M., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Haywood, A. M., Jungclaus, J. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albani, S., Bartlein, P. J., et al. (2018) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018 · Cited by 361
Metadata
- Authors
- Sutton, R. T., Dong, B., & Gregory, J. M.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2007-01
- Volume
- 34
- Issue
- 2
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W1983097469
- Cited by
- 445
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 11.57
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Sutton, R. T., Dong, B., & Gregory, J. M. (2007). Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006gl028164
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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