Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming.
Open accessAbstract
To help understand possible impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse warming on hurricane activity, we assess model‐projected changes in large‐scale environmental factors tied to variations in hurricane statistics. This study focuses on vertical wind shear (V s ) over the tropical Atlantic during hurricane season, the increase of which has been historically associated with diminished hurricane activity and intensity. A suite of state‐of‐the‐art global climate model experiments is used to project changes in V s over the 21st century. Substantial increases in tropical Atlantic and East Pacific shear are robust features of these experiments, and are shown to be connected to the model‐projected decrease in the Pacific Walker circulation. The relative changes in shear are found to be comparable to those of other large‐scale environmental parameters associated with Atlantic hurricane activity. The influence of these V s changes should be incorporated into projections of long‐term hurricane activity.
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Climate models predict increases in wind shear in some portions of the Atlantic hurricane development region, which would act to decrease overall Atlantic storm activity.
“Climate models predict increases in wind shear in some portions of the Atlantic hurricane development region (Latif et al., 2007;Vecchi and Soden, 2007), which would, however, act to decrease overall Atlantic storm activity.”
From The tropical atlantic observing system (2019) · cites this paper as Vecchi and Soden, 2007
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References 22 · Cited by 292
Research works printed but not linked: 8
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- Vecchi, G. A., and B. J. Soden (2007), Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation, J. Clim., in press.
- Zhang, R., and T. L. Delworth (2006), Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17712, doi:10.1029/2006GL026267. · DOI · Paper page
- Authors
- Vecchi, G. A., & Soden, B. J.
- Affiliations
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- University of Miami (US)
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2007-04
- Volume
- 34
- Issue
- 8
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2137873473
- Cited by
- 292
- References
- 22
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 20 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 12 · 2014: 15 · 2013: 14 · 2012: 18
- FWCI
- 18.90
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Keywords
- vertical wind shear, tropical Atlantic, hurricane activity, climate change projections, Pacific Walker circulation, East Pacific, hurricane intensity, climate model projections
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