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Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast
Open accessAbstract
From 1953 to 2006, Arctic sea ice extent at the end of the melt season in September has declined sharply. All models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) show declining Arctic ice cover over this period. However, depending on the time window for analysis, none or very few individual model simulations show trends comparable to observations. If the multi‐model ensemble mean time series provides a true representation of forced change by greenhouse gas (GHG) loading, 33–38% of the observed September trend from 1953–2006 is externally forced, growing to 47–57% from 1979–2006. Given evidence that as a group, the models underestimate the GHG response, the externally forced component may be larger. While both observed and modeled Antarctic winter trends are small, comparisons for summer are confounded by generally poor model performance.
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Cited by
Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system
Lenton, T. M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J. W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0705414105 · Cited by 3,982
Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems
Doney, S. C., Ruckelshaus, M., Emmett Duffy, J., Barry, J. P., Chan, F., English, C. A., Galindo, H. M., Grebmeier, J. M., Hollowed, A. B., Knowlton, N., et al. (2012) · Annual Review of Marine Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-041911-111611 · Cited by 3,014
Smallest Algae Thrive As the Arctic Ocean Freshens
Li, W. K. W., McLaughlin, F. A., Lovejoy, C., & Carmack, E. C. (2009) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1179798 · Cited by 734
A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years?
Wang, M., & Overland, J. E. (2009) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2009gl037820 · Cited by 699
Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice
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Metadata
- Authors
- Stroeve, J., Holland, M. M., Meier, W., Scambos, T., & Serreze, M.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2007-05
- Volume
- 34
- Issue
- 9
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2103164730
- Cited by
- 1,857
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 76.88
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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- Stroeve, J., Holland, M. M., Meier, W., Scambos, T., & Serreze, M. (2007). Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007gl029703
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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
