Is the number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones significantly underestimated prior to the availability of satellite observations?
Open accessAbstract
The number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones that may have been undetected before satellite observations are available is estimated by passing the cyclone tracks taken from 1976 to 2005 through ship observations from 1900 to 1965. The probability of detection is equated to the probability that the ships would have made wind observations of 18 m/s or higher had the tropical cyclones been present during the earlier years, based on the probability computed from actual wind observations around tropical cyclones during the satellite era. It is estimated that the number of tropical cyclones not making landfall over any continent or the Caribbeans may have been underestimated by up to 2.1 per year during 1904–1913, with this number decreasing to 1.0 per year or less during the 1920s and later decades. Our results suggest that the characteristics of North Atlantic tropical cyclone track statistics might have changed during the 20th century.
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Before satellite monitoring became routine in the late 1970s, tropical cyclones were prone to be missed if they were not observed through landfall, a ship, or airplane reconnaissance.
“However, before satellite monitoring became routine in the late 1970s, tropical cyclones were prone to be missed if they were not observed through landfall, a ship, or airplane reconnaissance.13,14”
From A Big Data Guide to Understanding Climate Change: The Case for Theory-Guided Data Science (2014) · cites this paper as [14]
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- Authors
- Chang, E. K. M., & Guo, Y.
- Affiliations
- Stony Brook University (US)
- ORCID
- Chang, Edmund K. M.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2007-07
- Volume
- 34
- Issue
- 14
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W1975467086
- Cited by
- 103
- References
- 16
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 1 · 2016: 1 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 7 · 2013: 4 · 2012: 12
- FWCI
- 6.88
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Keywords
- North Atlantic tropical cyclones, tropical cyclone detection, satellite observations, tropical cyclone tracks, Caribbean, 20th century climate change
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