Exploring the range of climate biome projections for tropical South America: The role of CO2 fertilization and seasonality
Abstract
Tropical South America vegetation cover projections for the end of the century differ considerably depending on climate scenario and also on how physiological processes are considered in vegetation models. In this paper we use a potential vegetation model (CPTEC‐PVM2) to analyze biome distribution in tropical South America under a range of climate projections and a range of estimates about the effects of increased atmospheric CO 2. We show that if the CO 2 “fertilization effect” indeed takes place and is maintained in the long term in tropical forests, then it will avoid biome shifts in Amazonia in most of the climate scenarios, even if the effect of CO 2 fertilization is halved. However, if CO 2 fertilization does not play any important role on tropical forests in the future or if dry season is longer than 4 months (projected by 2/14 GCMs), then there is replacement of large portions of Amazonia by tropical savanna.
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A 'CO2 fertilization effect' could increase forest resilience to climatic variability.
“As result, a ‘CO2 fertilization effect’ could increase forest resilience to climatic variability53,54.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [54]
Cites
The McCree-de Wit-Penning de Vries-Thornley respiration paradigms: 30 years later.
Amthor, J. (2000) · Annals of Botany · doi:10.1006/anbo.2000.1175 · Cited by 822 · see citing works
The drought of Amazonia in 2005.
Marengo, J. A., Nobre, C. A., Tomasella, J., Oyama, M. D., Sampaio de Oliveira, G., de Oliveira, R., Camargo, H., Alves, L. M., & Brown, I. F. (2008) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2007jcli1600.1 · Cited by 725 · see citing works
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Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system
Flores, B. M., Montoya, E., Sakschewski, B., Nascimento, N., Staal, A., Betts, R. A., Levis, C., Lapola, D. M., Esquível-Muelbert, A., Jakovac, C., et al. (2024) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0 · Cited by 607 · see citing works
Self-citationEcosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts
Longo, M., Knox, R. G., Levine, N. M., Alves, L. F., Bonal, D., Camargo, P. B., Fitzjarrald, D. R., Hayek, M. N., Restrepo‐Coupe, N., Saleska, S. R., et al. (2018) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.15185 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
- Authors
- Lapola, D. M., Oyama, M. D., & Nobre, C. A.
- Affiliations
- University of Kassel (DE)
- Instituto de Aeronáutica e Espaço (BR)
- Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (BR)
- Venue
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2009-07-03
- Volume
- 23
- Issue
- 3
- ISSN
- 0886-6236 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-9224
- OpenAlex
- W1666841423
- Cited by
- 122
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 3 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 5 · 2014: 4 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 9
- FWCI
- 9.58
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Keywords
- climate change projections, CO2 fertilization, biome shifts, tropical South America, Amazon basin, dry season length, vegetation cover, tropical forests
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