The DOI matches its Crossref record; 3 of the 3 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures?
Abstract
In the Essence project a 17‐member ensemble simulation of climate change in response to the SRES A1b scenario has been carried out using the ECHAM5/MPI‐OM climate model. The relatively large size of the ensemble makes it possible to accurately investigate changes in extreme values of climate variables. Here we focus on the annual‐maximum 2m‐temperature and fit a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the simulated values and investigate the development of the parameters of this distribution. Over most land areas both the location and the scale parameter increase. Consequently the 100‐year return values increase faster than the average temperatures. A comparison of simulated 100‐year return values for the present climate with observations (station data and reanalysis) shows that the ECHAM5/MPI‐OM model, as well as other models, overestimates extreme temperature values. After correcting for this bias, it still shows values in excess of 50°C in Australia, India, the Middle East, North Africa, the Sahel and equatorial and subtropical South America at the end of the century.
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Citations
Cites
An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values
Coles, S. (2001) · Springer Series in Statistics · doi:10.1007/978-1-4471-3675-0 · Cited by 7,352
Impact of regional climate change on human health
Patz, J. A., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Holloway, T., & Foley, J. A. (2005) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature04188 · Cited by 3,103
Kharin, V. V., Zwiers, F. W., Zhang, X., & Hegerl, G. C. (2007) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli4066.1 · Cited by 1,103
Cited by
Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D. D., Hogg, E. H. (., et al. (2010) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.001 · Cited by 7,763
Managing the health effects of climate change
Costello, A., Abbas, M., Allen, A., Ball, S., Bell, S., Bellamy, R., Friel, S., Groce, N., Johnson, A., Kett, M., et al. (2009) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(09)60935-1 · Cited by 3,102
Mora, C., Dousset, B., Caldwell, I. R., Powell, F. E., Geronimo, R. C., Bielecki, C. R., Counsell, C. W. W., Dietrich, B. S., Johnston, E. T., Louis, L. V., et al. (2017) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3322 · Cited by 1,746
Metadata
- Authors
- Sterl, A., Severijns, C., Dijkstra, H., Hazeleger, W., Jan van Oldenborgh, G., van den Broeke, M., Burgers, G., van den Hurk, B., Jan van Leeuwen, P., & van Velthoven, P.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2008-07
- Volume
- 35
- Issue
- 14
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2079241708
- Cited by
- 188
- References
- 3
- FWCI
- 10.87
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Sterl, A., Severijns, C., Dijkstra, H., Hazeleger, W., Jan van Oldenborgh, G., van den Broeke, M., Burgers, G., van den Hurk, B., Jan van Leeuwen, P., & van Velthoven, P. (2008). When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures? Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008gl034071
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