The DOI matches its Crossref record.
Do We Need Better Predictions to Adapt to a Changing Climate?
Abstract
Many scientists have called for a substantial new investment in climate modeling to increase the accuracy, precision, and reliability of climate predictions. Such investments are often justified by asserting that failure to improve predictions will prevent society from adapting successfully to changing climate. This Forum questions these claims, suggests limits to predictability, and argues that society can (and indeed must) make effective adaptation decisions in the absence of accurate and precise climate predictions.
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Citations
Cited by
Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections
Knutti, R., & Sedláček, J. (2013) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1716 · Cited by 1,569
Institutions and policy processes: the means to the ends of adaptation
Dovers, S. R., & Hezri, A. A. (2010) · WIREs Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.29 · Cited by 324
Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture
Vermeulen, S. J., Challinor, A. J., Thornton, P. K., Campbell, B. M., Eriyagama, N., Vervoort, J. M., Kinyangi, J., Jarvis, A., Läderach, P., Ramirez-Villegas, J., et al. (2013) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1219441110 · Cited by 284
Kwakkel, J. H., Haasnoot, M., & Walker, W. E. (2016) · Environmental Modelling & Software · doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.09.017 · Cited by 261
Technical knowledge, discursive spaces and politics at the science–policy interface
Wesselink, A., Buchanan, K. S., Georgiadou, Y., & Turnhout, E. (2013) · Environmental Science & Policy · doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2012.12.008 · Cited by 224
Metadata
- Authors
- Dessai, S., Hulme, M., Lempert, R., & Pielke, R.
- Venue
- Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2009-03-31
- Volume
- 90
- Issue
- 13
- Pages
- 111-112
- ISSN
- 0096-3941 (ISSN-L)
- 2324-9250
- OpenAlex
- W2051810689
- Cited by
- 220
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 18.53
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Do We Need Better Predictions to Adapt to a Changing Climate? https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1029/2009eo130003
- The paper
- Dessai, S., Hulme, M., Lempert, R., & Pielke, R. (2009). Do We Need Better Predictions to Adapt to a Changing Climate? Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009eo130003
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
