Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., & Meehl, G. A. (2012) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1 · Cited by 14,052 · see citing works

The Physical Science Basis

Jansen, E. H., Overpeck, J. T., Briffa, K., Duplessy, J., Joos, F., Masson-Delmotte, Olago, D., Otto‐Bliesner, B. L., Peltier, W. R., Rahmstorf, S., et al. (2007) · UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) · Cited by 4,577 · see citing works

The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300

Meinshausen, M., Smith, S., Calvin, K., Daniel, J., Kainuma, M., Lamarque, J., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S., Raper, S., Riahi, K., et al. (2011) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z · Cited by 3,621 · see citing works

THE WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: A New Era in Climate Change Research

Meehl, G., Covey, C., Delworth, T., Latif, M., Mcavaney, B., Mitchell, J., Stouffer, R., & Taylor, K. E. (2007) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-88-9-1383 · Cited by 2,831 · see citing works

The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions.

Hawkins, E., & Sutton, R. (2009) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/2009bams2607.1 · Cited by 2,732 · see citing works

The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections

Tebaldi, C., & Knutti, R. (2007) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2076 · Cited by 1,862 · see citing works

Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models.

Knutti, R., Furrer, R., Tebaldi, C., Cermak, J., & Meehl, G. A. (2010) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2009jcli3361.1 · Cited by 1,270 · see citing works

Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 1: Model description and calibration

Meinshausen, M., Raper, S. C. B., & Wigley, T. M. L. (2011) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-11-1417-2011 · Cited by 876 · see citing works

Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates

Rogelj, J., Meinshausen, M. A., & Knutti, R. (2012) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1385 · Cited by 790 · see citing works

The end of model democracy?

Knutti, R. (2010) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9800-2 · Cited by 505 · see citing works

The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth's temperature to radiation changes

Knutti, R., & Hegerl, G. C. (2008) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo337 · Cited by 491 · see citing works

Climate model genealogy

Masson, D., & Knutti, R. (2011) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2011gl046864 · Cited by 354 · see citing works

A Summary of the CMIP5 Experiment Design

Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., Meehl, G. A., Cox, P. M., Eyring, V., Flato, G. M., Gillett, N. P., Giorgetta, M. A., Bala, G., Hazeleger, W., et al. (2010) · Cited by 333 · see citing works

Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries

Mahlstein, I., Knutti, R., Solomon, S., & Portmann, R. W. (2011) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034009 · Cited by 300 · see citing works

Should we believe model predictions of future climate change?

Knutti, R. (2008) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0169 · Cited by 279 · see citing works

Mapping model agreement on future climate projections

Tebaldi, C., Arblaster, J. M., & Knutti, R. (2011) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2011gl049863 · Cited by 259 · see citing works

The Discrete Brier and Ranked Probability Skill Scores

Weigel, A. P., Liniger, M. A., & Appenzeller, C. (2007) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/mwr3280.1 · Cited by 254 · see citing works

A Review of Uncertainties in Global Temperature Projections over the Twenty-First Century

Knutti, R., Allen, M. R., Friedlingstein, P., Gregory, J. M., Hegerl, G. C., Meehl, G. A., Meinshausen, M. A., Murphy, J. M., Plattner, G., Raper, S. C. B., et al. (2008) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2007jcli2119.1 · Cited by 233 · see citing works

Do We Need Better Predictions to Adapt to a Changing Climate?

Dessai, S., Hulme, M., Lempert, R. J., & Pielke, R. A. (2009) · Eos · doi:10.1029/2009eo130003 · Cited by 221 · see citing works

Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 2: Applications

Meinshausen, M. A., Wigley, T. M. L., & Raper, S. C. B. (2011) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-11-1457-2011 · Cited by 179 · see citing works

Strategies: Revolution in Climate Prediction is Both Necessary and Possible: A Declaration at the World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction

Shukla, J., Hagedorn, R., Miller, M. E., et al. (2008) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/2008bams2759.1 · Cited by 131 · see citing works

Consensus on Twenty-First-Century Rainfall Projections in Climate Models More Widespread than Previously Thought

Power, S. B., Delage, F. P. D., Colman, R. A., & Moise, A. F. (2011) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00354.1 · Cited by 118 · see citing works

Analyzing precipitation projections: A comparison of different approaches to climate model evaluation

Schaller, N., Mahlstein, I., Čermák, J., & Knutti, R. (2011) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2010jd014963 · Cited by 92 · see citing works

Perceptible changes in regional precipitation in a future climate

Mahlstein, I., Portmann, R. W., Daniel, J. S., et al. (2012) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2011gl050738 · Cited by 80 · see citing works

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., et al. (2016) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016 · Cited by 5,241 · see citing works

Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there

Knutti, R., Masson, D., & Gettelman, A. (2013) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/grl.50256 · Cited by 918 · see citing works

Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century

Lelieveld, J., Proestos, Y., Hadjinicolaou, P., Tanarhte, M., Tyrlis, E., & Zittis, G. (2016) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6 · Cited by 483 · see citing works

Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots

Byers, E., Gidden, M., Leclère, D., Balkovic, J., Burek, P., Ebi, K., Greve, P., Grey, D., Havlik, P., Hillers, A., et al. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabf45 · Cited by 295 · see citing works

Simulated Tropical Precipitation Assessed across Three Major Phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)

Fiedler, S., Crueger, T., D’Agostino, R., Peters, K., Becker, T., Leutwyler, D., Paccini, L., Burdanowitz, J., Buehler, S. A., Cortes, A. U., et al. (2020) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/mwr-d-19-0404.1 · Cited by 166 · see citing works

The Risk of Termination Shock From Solar Geoengineering

Parker, A., & Irvine, P. J. (2018) · Earth's Future · doi:10.1002/2017ef000735 · Cited by 168 · see citing works

Recent Advances and Remaining Uncertainties in Resolving Past and Future Climate Effects on Global Fire Activity

Williams, A. P., & Abatzoglou, J. T. (2016) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-016-0031-0 · Cited by 173 · see citing works

Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California

Mann, M. L., Batllori, E., Moritz, M. A., Waller, E. K., Berck, P., Flint, A. L., Flint, L. E., & Dolfi, E. (2016) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0153589 · Cited by 151 · see citing works

Probabilistic projections of increased heat stress driven by climate change

Vargas Zeppetello, L. R., Raftery, A. E., & Battisti, D. S. (2022) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-022-00524-4 · Cited by 140 · see citing works

Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change

Carroll, C., Lawler, J. J., Roberts, D. R., & Hamann, A. (2015) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0140486 · Cited by 143 · see citing works

1.5°C Hotspots: Climate Hazards, Vulnerabilities, and Impacts

Schleussner, C.-F., Deryng, D., D'haen, S., Hare, W., Lissner, T., Ly, M., Nauels, A., Noblet, M., Pfleiderer, P., Pringle, P., et al. (2018) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-025835 · Cited by 45 · see citing works

Chaos in modelling the global climate system

Mihailovic, D., Balaž, I., & Kapor, D. (2016) · Developments in environmental modelling · doi:10.1016/b978-0-444-63918-9.00020-x · Cited by 2 · see citing works

Regional climate models downscaling analysis of general circulation models present climate biases propagation into future change projections

Liang, X., Kunkel, K. E., Meehl, G. A., Jones, R., & Wang, J. X. L. (2008) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2007gl032849 · Cited by 174 · see citing works

Evaluation of Temperature and Precipitation in Coupled Regional Climate Model Simulations

Fischer, A. M., Weigel, A. P., Liniger, M. A., et al. (2010) · EGUGA

Regional climate model downscaling of the U.S. summer climate and future change

Liang, X., Pan, J., Zhu, J., Kunkel, K. E., Wang, J. X. L., & Dai, A. (2006) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2005jd006685 · Cited by 148 · see citing works

Research Progress of Climate Model

Li-jiao, Y. (2013) · Anhui nongye kexue