Boosted carbon emissions from Amazon deforestation
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Standing biomass is a major, often poorly quantified determinate of carbon losses from land clearing. We analyzed maps from the 2001–2007 PRODES deforestation time series with recent regional pre‐deforestation aboveground biomass estimates to calculate carbon emission trends for the Brazilian Amazon basin. Although the annual rate of deforestation has not changed significantly since the 1990s (ANOVA, p = 0.3), the aboveground biomass lost per unit of forest cleared increased from 2001 to 2007 (183 to 201 Mg C ha−1; slope of regression significant: p < 0.01). Remaining unprotected forests harbor significantly higher aboveground biomass still, averaging 231 Mg C ha−1. This difference is large enough that, even if the annual area deforested remains unchanged, future clearing will increase regional emissions by ∼0.04 Pg C yr−1 – a ∼25% increase over 2001–2007 annual carbon emissions. These results suggest increased climate risk from future deforestation, but highlight opportunities through reductions in deforestation and forest degradation (REDD).
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The potential to avoid future emissions may be larger and more cost-effective than the 161 GtC of emissions avoided thus far, given that current cropland expansion often occurs in tropical forests and that the remaining forests are carbon-rich relative to many cleared forests.
“Even if yield gains over the next four decades are smaller than those of the previous four decades, the potential to avoid future emissions may be larger and more cost-effective than the 161 GtC of emissions avoided thus far, given that current cropland expansion often occurs in tropical forests and that the remaining forests are carbon-rich relative to many cleared forests”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [43]
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Giancola, D. T., Escada, M. I. S., Rosa, M., de Andrade, A. C. S., Laurance, S. G. W., Laurance, W. F., Vicentini, A., & Camargo, J. L. (2023) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4645900
- Authors
- Loarie, S. R., Asner, G. P., & Field, C. B.
- Affiliations
- Carnegie Institution for Science (US)
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2009-07
- Volume
- 36
- Issue
- 14
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2166685919
- Cited by
- 52
- References
- 44
- Citations by year
- 2025: 2 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 2 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 1 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 2 · 2013: 4 · 2012: 7
- FWCI
- 6.85
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Forest ecology and management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Forest Management and Policy
- Keywords
- Amazon deforestation, CO2 emissions, aboveground biomass, forest carbon loss, PRODES, forest degradation, REDD+, climate risk, Brazilian Amazon
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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