Are Atlantic Niños enhancing Pacific ENSO events in recent decades?

Abstract

This work presents observational evidence of a change in Atlantic‐Pacific Niños connection since the late 60's. Accordingly, summer Atlantic Niños (Niñas) alter the tropical circulation favoring the development of following‐winter Pacific Niñas (Niños). The same change is obtained in an ensemble of AGCM integrations in which SSTs in the Atlantic are the observed in 1949–2002 and those in the tropical Indo‐Pacific are from a coupled OGCM. The mechanism (for the positive Atlantic phase) involves the strengthening of the Walker circulation with ascending branch over the Atlantic and descending branch over the central Pacific. The enhanced surface divergence in the latter region shallows the equatorial thermocline triggering coupled processes, and favoring the development of a Pacific La Niña. Results could be linked to the reported 60's and 70's climate shifts; emphasizing the importance of tropical Atlantic for the success of seasonal forecast skill.