The DOI matches its Crossref record; 5 of the 5 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models
Open accessAbstract
Equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global surface temperature response to CO doubling, has been persistently uncertain. Recent consensus places it likely within 1.5–4.5 K. Global climate models (GCMs), which attempt to represent all relevant physical processes, provide the most direct means of estimating climate sensitivity via CO quadrupling experiments. Here we show that the closely related effective climate sensitivity has increased substantially in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), with values spanning 1.8–5.6 K across 27 GCMs and exceeding 4.5 K in 10 of them. This (statistically insignificant) increase is primarily due to stronger positive cloud feedbacks from decreasing extratropical low cloud coverage and albedo. Both of these are tied to the physical representation of clouds which in CMIP6 models lead to weaker responses of extratropical low cloud cover and water content to unforced variations in surface temperature. Establishing the plausibility of these higher sensitivity models is imperative given their implied societal ramifications.
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Cites
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., & Meehl, G. A. (2012) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1 · Cited by 14,052
Self-citationEyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., & Taylor, K. E. (2016) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016 · Cited by 11,981
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Knutti, R., Masson, D., & Gettelman, A. (2013) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/grl.50256 · Cited by 918
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Smith, C. J., Kramer, R. J., Myhre, G., Forster, P. M., Soden, B. J., Andrews, T., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Fläschner, D., Hodnebrog, Ø., et al. (2018) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2018gl079826 · Cited by 238
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Caldwell, P. M., Bretherton, C. S., Zelinka, M. D., Klein, S. A., Santer, B. D., & Sanderson, B. M. (2014) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2014gl059205 · Cited by 153
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Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Eyring, V., Flato, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Stouffer, R. J., Taylor, K. E., & Schlund, M. (2020) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aba1981 · Cited by 823
Self-citationGISS‐E2.1: Configurations and Climatology
Kelley, M., Schmidt, G. A., Nazarenko, L. S., Bauer, S. E., Ruedy, R., Russell, G. L., Ackerman, A. S., Aleinov, I., Bauer, M., Bleck, R., et al. (2020) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2019ms002025 · Cited by 667
Metadata
- Authors
- Zelinka, M. D., Myers, T. A., McCoy, D. T., Po‐Chedley, S., Caldwell, P. M., Ceppi, P., Klein, S. A., & Taylor, K. E.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2020-01-16
- Volume
- 47
- Issue
- 1
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W2998500935
- Cited by
- 1,747
- References
- 5
- FWCI
- 93.92
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
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- Zelinka, M. D., Myers, T. A., McCoy, D. T., Po‐Chedley, S., Caldwell, P. M., Ceppi, P., Klein, S. A., & Taylor, K. E. (2020). Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl085782
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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