Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there
Open accessAbstract
A new ensemble of climate models is becoming available and provides the basis for climate change projections. Here, we show a first analysis indicating that the models in the new ensemble agree better with observations than those in older ones and that the poorest models have been eliminated. Most models are strongly tied to their predecessors, and some also exchange ideas and code with other models, thus supporting an earlier hypothesis that the models in the new ensemble are neither independent of each other nor independent of the earlier generation. On the basis of one atmosphere model, we show how statistical methods can identify similarities between model versions and complement process understanding in characterizing how and why a model has changed. We argue that the interdependence of models complicates the interpretation of multimodel ensembles but largely goes unnoticed.
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- Findingnone given
Some CMIP5 models exchange ideas and code with other models.
“and some also exchange ideas and code with other models”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The CMIP5 models agree better with observations than the older CMIP2 and CMIP3 models.
“Here, we show a first analysis indicating that the models in the new ensemble agree better with observations than those in older ones”
- Also stated in: § 2. Results · plain
“CMIP5 continues the trend of better agreement with observations [Reichler and Kim, 2008], with the mean distance from observations reduced by approximately 20% from CMIP3 to CMIP5.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Reichler and Kim, 2008
Not checked in the free run.
- Also stated in: § 2. Results · plain
- Findingnone given
Most CMIP5 models are strongly tied to their predecessors.
“Most models are strongly tied to their predecessors”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Statistical methods can identify similarities between model versions and complement process understanding in characterizing how and why a model has changed.
“On the basis of one atmosphere model, we show how statistical methods can identify similarities between model versions and complement process understanding in characterizing how and why a model has changed.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given
The distance between models from the same institutions is often a factor of three to ten smaller than the distance to other models.
“The distance between models from the same institutions is often a factor of three to ten smaller than that to other models.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Findingnone given
Sharing of model code became more widespread in CMIP5 than in CMIP3.
“Sharing of model code occurred in CMIP3 (e.g., the Italian INGV model using an ECHAM atmosphere, or the Norwegian BCCR using the French ARPEGE atmosphere also present in CNRM) but has become more widespread in CMIP5.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingreasoning
The strengths and weaknesses of particular models are partly passed on to newer model versions and to other models by the exchange of code and ideas.
“The strengths and weaknesses of particular models, as they are evident in the biases in simulating present day climate, are partly passed on to newer model versions and to other models by the exchange of code and ideas.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The contribution of internal unforced variability is small for this metric.
“The contribution of internal unforced variability (quantified using multiple segments of a control simulation) is small for this metric”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingnone given
The CAM models with the most similar physics packages cluster closest together.
“In general, the CAM models with the most similar physics packages cluster closest together.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingreasoning
The similarity metric is strongly determined by biases in present-day climatology and seasonal cycle, that is, by model differences rather than initial conditions or forcing.
“The similarity metric is defined from the unperturbed preindustrial model control state and is strongly determined by biases in the present day climatology and seasonal cycle, that is, by model differences rather than initial conditions or forcing.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingcitation
The mean distance from observations for CMIP5 is reduced by approximately 20% from CMIP3 to CMIP5.
“CMIP5 continues the trend of better agreement with observations [Reichler and Kim, 2008], with the mean distance from observations reduced by approximately 20% from CMIP3 to CMIP5.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Reichler and Kim, 2008
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisecitation
Models from different centers that share the same atmospheric model, even in different versions, are closely related.
“models in different centers sharing the same atmospheric model (even in different versions) were also closely related”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Masson and Knutti, 2011
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationreasoning
The interdependence of models complicates the interpretation of multimodel ensembles.
“We argue that the interdependence of models complicates the interpretation of multimodel ensembles but largely goes unnoticed.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Models from the same centers are often very similar in their present-day climatology.
“Models from the same centers were shown in MK11 to often be very similar in their present day climatology”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Masson and Knutti, 2011
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationreasoning
The new generation of global climate models in CMIP5 supports the idea of a rather gradual evolutionary process by which models improve over time.
“The new generation of global climate models in CMIP5 supports the idea of a rather gradual evolutionary process by which models improve over time.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
The biggest change in climate sensitivity from CAM4 to CAM5 results from the change to the shallow convection scheme, which increases shortwave cloud feedbacks.
“As discussed by Gettelman et al. [2012], the biggest change in climate sensitivity results from the change to the shallow convection scheme, which increases shortwave cloud feedbacks.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Gettelman et al., 2012
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationreasoning
Observational uncertainties may explain some of the remaining model biases.
“observational uncertainties (estimated from differences across multiple data sets) may explain some of the remaining model biases”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The fact that the ensemble compares more favorably with observations despite enhanced complexity is perhaps one indication that the development strategy of adding complexity is successful in better representing the current climate system.
“However, the fact that the ensemble compares more favorably with observations, despite the enhanced complexity of many of the models, is perhaps one indication that this development strategy of using enhancements in computational power to add complexity is successful in better representing the current climate system.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Shared code and data sets reduce the effective degrees of freedom in a multimodel ensemble.
“Shared code and data sets reduce the effective degrees of freedom in a multimodel ensemble.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationcitation
Projected climate change is often not related to the climatological mean bias in an obvious way.
“This is consistent with the fact that the projected climate change is often not related to the climatological mean bias in an obvious way, a difficulty seen in many studies [Knutti et al., 2010].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Knutti et al., 2010
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisenone given
In most studies, all models are treated equally, giving more weight to centers that submitted multiple versions or shared their code with others.
“In most studies (including in the IPCC reports), all models are treated equally, thus giving more weight to those who have submitted multiple versions or share their code with others.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- May combine two claims. 10
- The quote only partly states this claim. 1
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 7
May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.
Findingnone givenThe poorest models in the CMIP ensemble have been eliminated or have improved the most.
“and that the poorest models have been eliminated”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe CAM5 experiments cluster together, with three single perturbation experiments similar to the base CAM5 experiment.
“As is clear from the tree shown in Figure 2a, the CAM5 experiments cluster together, with three single perturbation experiments similar to the base CAM5 experiment.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingcitationDifferent observation and reanalysis data sets cluster together, and the rankings are nearly identical irrespective of the chosen data set.
“as shown already by MK11, the different observation and reanalysis data set cluster together (see Figure 1a), and the rankings in Figure 3 are nearly identical irrespective of the chosen data set.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Masson and Knutti, 2011
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
FindingreasoningFor projected changes, some models remain close, while other similarities do not persist.
“For the projected changes, some models remain close (e.g., those which share a similar atmosphere), whereas other similarities do not persist (e.g., if the new version of a model has a different climate sensitivity).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe final change in the shallow convection introduces the largest change, although it brings CAM5 closer to the original CAM4 in some variables.
“The final change in the shallow convection introduces the largest change (last step in panel c), although it brings CAM5 closer to the original CAM4 in some variables (panel b).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe CMIP5 models are neither independent of each other nor independent of the earlier generation of models.
“thus supporting an earlier hypothesis that the models in the new ensemble are neither independent of each other nor independent of the earlier generation”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe results point to remarkable consistency and robustness in many aspects of simulated present-day and future climate, but also suggest that convergence to reality is slow and radical breakthroughs are hard to achieve.
“The results point to a remarkable consistency and robustness in many aspects of simulated present day and future climate, but it also suggests that convergence to reality is slow and radical breakthroughs are hard to achieve.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).
Interpretationnone givenConfidence is greatest in those aspects of climate change that we understand and can link back to known physical processes and simpler models and concepts.
“Confidence is greatest in those aspects of climate change that we understand and can link back to known physical processes and simpler models and concepts (e.g., the global energy balance).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).
InterpretationreasoningTransparency in the model development process is helpful in understanding model evaluation and projections.
“We argue that transparency in the model development process is helpful in understanding model evaluation and projections and contributes to that insight.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenAll results are based only on model output and assume no knowledge about the structure, parameterizations, or code of any model.
“Note that all results presented here are only based on model output; they assume no knowledge about the structure, parameterizations, or code of any model.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Study design and conductnone givenThe methodological choices made for the similarity metric do not affect the main conclusions.
“None of those choices affect the main conclusions.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningConfidence in model projections does not come from the sheer amount of code and data and cannot be demonstrated by repeated verification.
“Confidence in model projections does not come from the sheer amount of code and data and cannot be demonstrated by repeated verification.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationLinking model performance metrics to model quality or skill is difficult, subjective, and strongly metric dependent.
“but with the strong caveat that linking model performance metrics to model quality or skill is difficult, subjective, and strongly metric dependent [Gleckler et al., 2008]”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Gleckler et al., 2008
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Interpretationnone givenOne reason some models are so similar is because they share common code.
“We propose that one reason some models are so similar is because they share common code.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationModel similarities result from models evolving from their ancestors by modification and by exchange of ideas and code with other groups.
“MK11 argued that such similarities result from the fact that models evolve from their ancestors by modification and by exchange of ideas and code with other groups.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Masson and Knutti, 2011
Not checked in the free run.
The authors state this as an assumption.
The models in an ensemble are approximately a representative sample of uncertainty in how to best describe the climate system given limited observations, imperfect understanding, and finite computational resources.
“This assumes that the models are approximately a representative sample of our uncertainty in how to best describe the climate system given limited observations, imperfect understanding, and finite computational resources [Knutti, 2008;Yokohata et al., 2012].”
The authors state this as an assumption.
There are not too many similarities among models that would bias the results of an ensemble.
“It also assumes that there are not too many similarities that would bias the results.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
CMIP5 projections are an incremental advance over CMIP3 data, so using CMIP3 does not limit the relevance of the analysis.
“Since CMIP5 projections are an incremental advance over CMIP3 data [34–36], this does not limit the relevance of our analysis as a tool for assessing anthropogenic influences on future fire activity.”
From Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California (2016) · cites this paper as [34]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Overall distance metric is described two different ways
MinorThe methods section says the combined temperature-precipitation distance used for Figure 3 is a mean square, while the Figure 3 caption calls it a root mean square. Taking the square root changes the reported distance values.
“for Figures 1 and 3, the metric now also includes differences in the annual mean climatology and that we use the mean square of the temperature and precipitation distance to define overall similarity”
“The distance metric is calculated as the root mean square of the surface temperature and precipitation distance as in Figure 1”
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Skill and independence weighting for multi-model assessments
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Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes
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Self-citationSources of uncertainties in 21st century projections of potential ocean ecosystem stressors
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On the spread of changes in marine low cloud cover in climate model simulations of the 21st century
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Addressing Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble by Interpolation of Model Properties
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Self-citationA closer look at novel climates: new methods and insights at continental to landscape scales
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Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties
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Self-citationClassification of CMIP5 Future Climate Responses by the Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Changes
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Hadley cell expansion in CMIP6 models
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Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six US modeling centers
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The Southern Ocean in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5
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- Authors
- Knutti, R., Masson, D., & Gettelman, A.
- Affiliations
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss (CH)
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- Corresponding author
- Knutti, Reto
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2013-03-26
- Volume
- 40
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 1194-1199
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W1796961055
- Semantic Scholar
- f6507ca951e61214c9268ce9a43376724b2f9bcf
- Cited by
- 918
- References
- 17
- Citations by year
- 2026: 37 · 2025: 42 · 2024: 54 · 2023: 73 · 2022: 114 · 2021: 126 · 2020: 109 · 2019: 64 · 2018: 76 · 2017: 67 · 2016: 51 · 2015: 55 · 2014: 42 · 2013: 7
- FWCI
- 39.41
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- ETH Zürich Research Collection
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- CMIP5, multi-model ensemble, model validation against observations, climate change projections, statistical model comparison
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-06.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-06.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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