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Sea Level, Tidal, and River Flow Trends in the Lower Columbia River Estuary, 1853–present

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Talke, S. A., Mahedy, A., Jay, D. A., Lau, P., Hilley, C., Hudson, A.·2020·Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
DOI 10.1029/2019jc015656
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Abstract

Few tidal records are available pre‐1900 for the Pacific Ocean. We improve data coverage by recovering historical tabulations and digitizing analog tide rolls from Astoria, Oregon, for 1853–1876. Nearly 13,500 overlapping images of tides from 1855–1870 were digitized at a 6 min resolution using a line‐finding algorithm. Available hourly and high/low tabulations were also digitized, as were nearby hourly records from 1933 to 1943. Uncertainty was assessed by evaluating manual staff measurements, historical documents, and leveling surveys. Results suggest that uncertainty in mean sea level varies from ±0.07 m (early 1850s) to ±0.03 m (1867–1876) and is driven primarily by datum and benchmark uncertainty, rather than measurement precision, data reduction procedures, or hydrodynamic changes. We also corrected an up‐to 0.05 m error in the 1925–1960 tidal datum at Astoria. Harmonic analysis shows that major tidal constituents increased by up to 7% between 1855 and 2018. Mean tidal range increased by 0.1 m (5%), with more change occurring in July (0.17 m larger) than winter (0.07 m larger). By contrast, sea level increased most in winter and least in spring/summer. Tidally based estimates of river discharge suggest that these observations are caused by a ~50% reduction in peak spring discharge and a 30–60% increase in winter discharge. No evidence of altered upwelling is found. Overall, Astoria relative sea level (RSL) increased by 0.06 m ± 0.04 m since the 1858–1876 epoch or, after accounting for vertical land motion, 0.11 ± 0.09 m. Consistent with GNSS measurements, RSL has dropped near the estuary mouth since 1905, indicating a strong tectonic influence.

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  • Since the nineteenth century, flow changes have increased average wintertime water levels in Astoria (rkm25) by 0.03-0.04 m, and decreased May-July water levels by 0.05-0.15 m.

    “Since the nineteenth century, these flow changes have increased average wintertime water levels in Astoria (rkm25) by 0.03-0.04m, and decreased May-July water levels by 0.05-0.15m (Talke et al. 2020);”

    From Shallow-Water Habitat in the Lower Columbia River Estuary: A Highly Altered System (2024) · cites this paper as Talke et al. 2020

    Section 3.3 (page unavailable) estimates that changed river flow raised Astoria water levels by about 0.03 m in winter and lowered them by nearly 0.15 m in July. Our copy does not state the additional 0.04 m winter or 0.05 m May values, so it does not fully substantiate the claimed ranges; it also presents the changes as estimates. (LLM, conf=0.82)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Reduced friction has increased tidal ranges in the reach between Astoria (rkm25) and Quincy (rkm87) on the order of 5-20%.

    “Reduced friction has increased tidal ranges in the reach between Astoria (rkm25) and Quincy (rkm87) on the order of 5-20% (Helaire et al. 2019;Talke et al. 2020).”

    From Shallow-Water Habitat in the Lower Columbia River Estuary: A Highly Altered System (2024) · cites this paper as Talke et al. 2020

    Section 3.2 (page unavailable) reports a 5% increase in mean tidal range at Astoria and links increased M2 amplitudes in the lower Columbia River to reduced frictional damping. It does not establish a 5–20% increase in tidal range throughout the specified Astoria–Quincy reach; the broader spatial finding concerns M2 amplitude rather than tidal range. (LLM, conf=0.87)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Historical changes in relative sea level rise are small-about 0.06 m in Astoria since the mid-nineteenth century.

    “Additional climate change effects such as relative sea level rise are not considered, because historical changes have been small-about 0.06 m in Astoria since the mid-nineteenth century (Talke et al. 2020).”

    From Shallow-Water Habitat in the Lower Columbia River Estuary: A Highly Altered System (2024) · cites this paper as Talke et al. 2020

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Authors
Talke, S. A., Mahedy, A., Jay, D. A., Lau, P., Hilley, C., & Hudson, A.
Affiliations
  • California Polytechnic State University (US)
  • Portland State University (US)
Corresponding author
Talke, S. A.
ORCID
Venue
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Published
2020-03
Volume
125
Issue
3
ISSN
  • 2169-9275 (ISSN-L)
  • 2169-9291
DOI
10.1029/2019jc015656
OpenAlex
W3005804557
Cited by
50
References
0
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FWCI
3.84
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans (publishedVersion)
  • PDXScholar (Portland State University) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • National Science Foundation (OCE‐0929055, OCE‐1155610, 1455350)
  • U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (W1927N‐14‐2‐0015)
  • Portland State University
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Earth-Surface Processes › Coastal and Marine Dynamics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Water Science and Technology › Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
Keywords
relative sea-level change, tidal records, digitization of historical documents, tidal range, harmonic analysis, river discharge, upwelling, vertical land motion, tectonic subsidence, Astoria, Oregon

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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