Historical Changes in Lower Columbia River and Estuary Floods: A Numerical Study
Abstract
Over the past 150 years, the Lower Columbia River Estuary controlling depth has approximately doubled, the majority of historical wetlands and floodplain have been reclaimed, numerous infrastructure projects have altered and confined flow pathways, and significant natural and anthropogenic changes to the discharge hydrograph have occurred. To investigate the effect of these changes on tides, river slope, and flood water levels, we construct and validate numerical models that simulate flow over late nineteenth‐century and present‐day bathymetry. The models are validated using archival (1853–1877) and modern tide measurements throughout the Lower Columbia River Estuary and river stage measurements from the tidal river (1876–present). Historical flood plain roughness and levee heights are validated iteratively by requiring simulations to match the observed roll off in the river stage rating curve during floods. Measurements and model results show that environmental change has amplified tidal constituents, with peak change about 60 km from the coast. By contrast, increased depth has reduced river slope for low and moderate river discharge. For rarely observed extreme floods of 30 × 10 3 m 3/s, simulated modern water levels exceed historical in Portland (OR). These observations highlight competing hydrodynamic effects, which are investigated by scaling the St. Venant equations for a simulated 25 × 10 3‐m 3/s flood: While larger modern depth reduces frictional effects and decreases surface slope, reduced floodplain access confines modern flow into channels, increasing velocity, bed stress, and water levels. However, the highly frictional historical floodplain conveyed little flow, limiting the effect of floodplain to storage effects; hence, most simulated historical floods exceed modern levels.
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The Federal Navigation Channel has straightened and approximately doubled the thalweg depth of the system, decreasing frictional effects and reducing mean water levels, though pile dikes introduce friction and prevent an even greater decrease in water levels.
“Compared to the nineteenth century conditions, the FNC has straightened and approximately doubled the thalweg depth of the system, decreasing frictional effects and reducing mean water levels, though pile dikes introduce friction and prevent an even greater decrease in water levels (Helaire et al. 2019(Helaire et al. , 2020;;Jay et al. 2011).”
From Shallow-Water Habitat in the Lower Columbia River Estuary: A Highly Altered System (2024) · cites this paper as Helaire et al. 2019
Further upstream in the Portland/Vancouver region (rkm170), much larger average decreases of ~1-4 m have occurred during the freshet season.
“further upstream in the Portland/Vancouver region (rkm170), much larger average decreases of ~ 1-4 m have occurred during the freshet season (Helaire et al. 2019).”
From Shallow-Water Habitat in the Lower Columbia River Estuary: A Highly Altered System (2024) · cites this paper as Helaire et al. 2019
Reduced friction has increased tidal ranges in the reach between Astoria (rkm25) and Quincy (rkm87) on the order of 5-20%.
“Reduced friction has increased tidal ranges in the reach between Astoria (rkm25) and Quincy (rkm87) on the order of 5-20% (Helaire et al. 2019;Talke et al. 2020).”
From Shallow-Water Habitat in the Lower Columbia River Estuary: A Highly Altered System (2024) · cites this paper as Helaire et al. 2019
Overall, lower low water levels have decreased more than higher high water levels have increased, reducing the mean water level.
“Overall, lower low water (LLW) levels have decreased more than HHW levels have increased, reducing the mean water level (Helaire et al. 2019;Jay et al. 2011).”
From Shallow-Water Habitat in the Lower Columbia River Estuary: A Highly Altered System (2024) · cites this paper as Helaire et al. 2019
The levee system confines high flows, raising water levels throughout most of the system relative to a connected system with the same channel depth.
“The levee system confines high flows, raising water levels throughout most of the system, relative to a connected system with the same channel depth (Helaire et al. 2019),”
From Shallow-Water Habitat in the Lower Columbia River Estuary: A Highly Altered System (2024) · cites this paper as Helaire et al. 2019
Models using these variables provide a reasonably accurate representation of LCRE water levels.
“Models using these variables provide a reasonably accurate representation of LCRE water levels (Helaire et al. 2019;KJ2003a,b;Jay et al. 2011Jay et al. , 2016)).”
From Shallow-Water Habitat in the Lower Columbia River Estuary: A Highly Altered System (2024) · cites this paper as Helaire et al. 2019
These higher floodplain elevations were reached by historic floods (1933 and 1894); modern floods do not reach those elevations.
“These higher floodplain elevations were reached by historic floods (1933 and 1894 arrows); modern floods do not reach those elevations (see also Helaire et al. 2019).”
From Shallow-Water Habitat in the Lower Columbia River Estuary: A Highly Altered System (2024) · cites this paper as Helaire et al. 2019
The effect of navigational improvements and flow reductions can reduce spring freshet water levels by up to 3-4 m.
“The effect of the latter can reduce spring freshet water levels by up to 3-4 m (Jay et al. 2011(Jay et al. , 2016;;Helaire et al. 2019).”
From Shallow-Water Habitat in the Lower Columbia River Estuary: A Highly Altered System (2024) · cites this paper as Helaire et al. 2019
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Shallow-Water Habitat in the Lower Columbia River Estuary: A Highly Altered System
Templeton, W. J., Jay, D. A., Diefenderfer, H. L., & Talke, S. A. (2024) · Estuaries and Coasts · doi:10.1007/s12237-023-01229-3 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
“…restoration can be challenging because multiple factors, including bathymet-ric and hydrological changes, alter wetland extent but also the hydrodynamic response of the system, including tides and mean water levels (Helaire et al. 2019; Hoitink & Jay 2016; Jay et al. 2011; Talke & Jay 2020).”
InfluentialSelf-citation
- Authors
- Helaire, L. T., Talke, S. A., Jay, D. A., & Mahedy, D.
- Affiliations
- Portland State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Helaire, Lumas T.
- Venue
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2019-11
- Volume
- 124
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 7926-7946
- ISSN
- 2169-9275 (ISSN-L)
- 2169-9291
- OpenAlex
- W2973223715
- Semantic Scholar
- 8fb2deed43d6a6619dacbe72afde2c170a9cbf1b
- Cited by
- 61
- References
- 58
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 2
- FWCI
- 3.30
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans (publishedVersion)
- PDXScholar (Portland State University) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (1455350)
- U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (W1927N‐14‐2‐0015)
- Office of Naval Research (N00014‐13‐1‐0084)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Hydrology and Sediment Transport Processes
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Earth-Surface Processes › Aquatic and Environmental Studies
- Keywords
- flood history, wetland loss, river levels, river slope, tidal constituents, levee height, floodplain roughness, bathymetric change, shallow water equations, extreme floods, floodplain storage, bed shear stress
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