The DOI matches its Crossref record; 79 of the 79 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability
Open accessAbstract
The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI‐GE) is the largest ensemble of a single comprehensive climate model currently available, with 100 members for the historical simulations (1850–2005) and four forcing scenarios. It is currently the only large ensemble available that includes scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and a 1% CO 2 scenario. These advantages make MPI‐GE a powerful tool. We present an overview of MPI‐GE, its components, and detail the experiments completed. We demonstrate how to separate the forced response from internal variability in a large ensemble. This separation allows the quantification of both the forced signal under climate change and the internal variability to unprecedented precision. We then demonstrate multiple ways to evaluate MPI‐GE and put observations in the context of a large ensemble, including a novel approach for comparing model internal variability with estimated observed variability. Finally, we present four novel analyses, which can only be completed using a large ensemble. First, we address whether temperature and precipitation have a pathway dependence using the forcing scenarios. Second, the forced signal of the highly noisy atmospheric circulation is computed, and different drivers are identified to be important for the North Pacific and North Atlantic regions. Third, we use the ensemble dimension to investigate the time dependency of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variability changes under global warming. Last, sea level pressure is used as an example to demonstrate how MPI‐GE can be utilized to estimate the ensemble size needed for a given scientific problem and provide insights for future ensemble projects.
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Cites
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., & Meehl, G. A. (2012) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1 · Cited by 14,052
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Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability
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Self-citationAnthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California
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Atmospheric component of the MPI‐M Earth System Model: ECHAM6
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Self-citationAtlantic Ocean Forcing of North American and European Summer Climate
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Cited by
Understanding and managing connected extreme events
Raymond, C., Horton, R. M., Zscheischler, J., Martius, O., AghaKouchak, A., Balch, J., Bowen, S. G., Camargo, S. J., Hess, J., Kornhuber, K., et al. (2020) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0790-4 · Cited by 708
Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability
Rodgers, K. B., Lee, S.-S., Rosenbloom, N., Timmermann, A., Danabasoglu, G., Deser, C., Edwards, J., Kim, J.-E., Simpson, I. R., Stein, K., et al. (2021) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021 · Cited by 544
Atmospheric blocking and weather extremes over the Euro-Atlantic sector – a review
Kautz, L.-A., Martius, O., Pfahl, S., Pinto, J. G., Ramos, A. M., Sousa, P. M., & Woollings, T. (2022) · Weather and Climate Dynamics · doi:10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022 · Cited by 337
(2023) · Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis · doi:10.1017/9781009157896.003 · Cited by 298
Human influence has intensified extreme precipitation in North America
Kirchmeier-Young, M. C., & Zhang, X. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1921628117 · Cited by 288
Metadata
- Authors
- Maher, N., Milinski, S., Suarez‐Gutierrez, L., Botzet, M., Dobrynin, M., Kornblueh, L., Kröger, J., Takano, Y., Ghosh, R., Hedemann, C., Li, C., Li, H., Manzini, E., Notz, D., Putrasahan, D., Boysen, L., Claussen, M., Ilyina, T., Olonscheck, D., Raddatz, T., Stevens, B., & Marotzke, J.
- Venue
- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2019-07
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 2050-2069
- ISSN
- 1942-2466 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2948338333
- Cited by
- 537
- References
- 79
- FWCI
- 37.78
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
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- Maher, N., Milinski, S., Suarez‐Gutierrez, L., Botzet, M., Dobrynin, M., Kornblueh, L., Kröger, J., Takano, Y., Ghosh, R., Hedemann, C., Li, C., Li, H., Manzini, E., Notz, D., Putrasahan, D., Boysen, L., Claussen, M., Ilyina, T., Olonscheck, D., . . . Marotzke, J. (2019). The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ms001639
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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
