The Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment: 3. Lifetime methodology and application to three years of CFCl3data

Abstract

Observations of the chlorofluorocarbon CFCl 3 obtained several times daily over the period July 1978 to June 1981 at Adrigole, Ireland (52°N, 10°W); Ragged Point, Barbados (13°N, 59°W); Point Matatula, American Samoa (14°S, 171°W); and Cape Grim, Tasmania (41°S, 145°E) are reported. In addition, observations at Cape Meares, Oregon (45°N, 124°W) are given for the period January 1980 to June 1981. On January 1, 1980, the average mixing ratio of CFCl 3 in the lower troposphere is estimated to have been 168 pptv, and this is calculated to have been increasing 5.7% annually. An optimal estimation procedure for deriving the atmospheric lifetime of CFCl 3 by using a nine‐box two‐dimensional model of the atmosphere is described. In this procedure, model parameters are estimated based upon minimizing the differences between the temporal trends observed and those calculated in the two‐dimensional model. Assuming that the only destruction of CFCl 3 occurs in the stratosphere, the lifetime, on January 1, 1980, estimated by the trend technique is years; the lifetime estimated from the global inventory of CFCl 3 is years. The maximum likelihood current lifetime estimate obtained by combining the estimates from both analysis techniques is 78 years.