A method of estimating parameters and assessing reliability for models of steady state groundwater flow: 1. Theory and numerical properties

Abstract

A new nonlinear least squares solution for the Hydrogeologic parameters, sources and sinks, and boundary fluxes contained in the equations approximately governing two‐dimensional or radial steady state groundwater motion was developed through use of a linearization and iteration procedure applied to the finite element discretization of the problem. Techniques involving (1) use of an iteration parameter to interpolate or extrapolate the changes in computed parameters and head distribution at each iteration and (2) conditioning of the least squares coefficient matrix through use of ridge regression techniques were proven to induce convergence of the procedure for virtually all problems. Because of the regression nature of the solution for the parameter estimation problem, classical methods of regression analysis are promising as an aid to establishing approximate reliability of computed parameters and predicted values of hydraulic head. Care must be taken not to compute so many parameters that the stability of the estimates is destroyed. Reduction of the error variance by adding parameters is desirable provided that the number of degrees of freedom for error remains large.