A Brief Actuarial Assessment for the Prediction of Wife Assault Recidivism: The Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment.
Open accessAbstract
An actuarial assessment to predict male-to-female marital violence was constructed from a pool of potential predictors in a sample of 589 offenders identified in police records and followed up for an average of almost 5 years. Archival information in several domains (offender characteristics, domestic violence history, nondomestic criminal history, relationship characteristics, victim characteristics, index offense) and recidivism were subjected to setwise and stepwise logistic regression. The resulting 13-item scale, the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA), showed a large effect size in predicting new assaults against legal or common-law wives or ex-wives (Cohen's d = 1.1, relative operating characteristic area =.77) and was associated with number and severity of new assaults and time until recidivism. Cross-validation and comparisons with other instruments are also reported.
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Structured assessment tools effectively support police to identify high risk cases of intimate partner violence.
“Structured assessment tools, such as the Victoria Police Screening Assessment for Family Violence Risk and Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment, effectively support police to identify high risk cases of intimate partner violence (Hilton et al., 2004; Hilton & Eke, 2016; McEwan et al., 2019).”
From Police-Identified Psychological Distress, Substance Use, and Physical Violence Among Male Intimate Partner Stalkers (2025) · cites this paper as Hilton et al., 2004
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A common language effect size statistic
McGraw, K. O., & Wong, S. P. (1992) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.111.2.361 · Cited by 934 · cited 1× · see citing works
“2 ROC area is conceptually and numerically equal to the common language effect size (McGraw & Wong, 1992; Rice & Harris, 1995). yielded a scale with possible values from 0 to 13 but with an observed range in this construction sample of 0 to 11 (M 2.89, SD 2.14) and a Pearson (point-biserial)…”
BackgroundInfluentialTesting the Holtzworth-Munroe and Stuart (1994) batterer typology
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Borges, G., Nock, M. K., Haro Abad, J. M., Hwang, I., Sampson, N. A., Alonso, J., Andrade, L. H., Angermeyer, M. C., Beautrais, A., Bromet, E., et al. (2010) · The Journal of Clinical Psychiatry · doi:10.4088/jcp.08m04967blu · Cited by 796 · see citing works
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“…the Kingston Screening Instrument for Domestic Violence [K-SID; Gelles, 1998; Lyon, 1998], Ontario Domestic Abuse Risk Assessment [O.D.A.R.A.; Hilton et al., 2005], and the Partner Abuse Scale [PAS; Dutton, Landolt, Starzomski, & Bodnarchuk, 2001]) are primarily aimed at predicting reassault…”
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Predicting domestic violence: A meta-analysis on the predictive validity of risk assessment tools
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Dashing hopes? The predictive accuracy of domestic abuse risk assessment by police
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Coercive control and risk in intimate partner violence: are Canadian police prepared to assess?
Aspinall, M., Gill, C., Dawson, M., & Cousineau, M.-M. (2024) · Policing and Society · doi:10.1080/10439463.2024.2317304 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
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- Authors
- Hilton, N. Z., Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., Lang, C., Cormier, C. A., & Lines, K. J.
- Affiliations
- Waypoint Centre for Mental Health Care (CA)
- Government of Ontario (CA)
- ORCID
- Hilton, N. Zoe
- Venue
- Psychological Assessment
- Published
- 2004-09
- Volume
- 16
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 267-275
- ISSN
- 1040-3590 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-134X
- OpenAlex
- W2031532698
- Cited by
- 378
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 14 · 2025: 24 · 2024: 21 · 2023: 23 · 2022: 15 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 14 · 2017: 27 · 2016: 18 · 2015: 12 · 2014: 19 · 2013: 21 · 2012: 18
- FWCI
- 10.08
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- correction (2006-07-10)
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Locations
- Psychological Assessment (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- TSpace (University of Toronto) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Health › Intimate Partner and Family Violence
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Psychopathy, Forensic Psychiatry, Sexual Offending
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
- Keywords
- domestic violence, wife assault, recidivism prediction, actuarial risk assessment, risk assessment tools, criminal history, victim characteristics, relationship characteristics
- MeSH terms
- Actuarial Analysis, Adult, Crime, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Personality Assessment, Psychometrics, Social Support, Spouse Abuse, Statistics as Topic, Violence, Reproducibility of Results, Logistic Models, Risk Assessment, Substance-Related Disorders, Secondary Prevention
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