Revisiting meta-analytic estimates of validity in personnel selection: Addressing systematic overcorrection for restriction of range.
Abstract
This paper systematically revisits prior meta-analytic conclusions about the criterion-related validity of personnel selection procedures, and particularly the effect of range restriction corrections on those validity estimates. Corrections for range restriction in meta-analyses of predictor-criterion relationships in personnel selection contexts typically involve the use of an artifact distribution. After outlining and critiquing five approaches that have commonly been used to create and apply range restriction artifact distributions, we conclude that each has significant issues that often result in substantial overcorrection and that therefore the validity of many selection procedures for predicting job performance has been substantially overestimated. Revisiting prior meta-analytic conclusions produces revised validity estimates. Key findings are that most of the same selection procedures that ranked high in prior summaries remain high in rank, but with mean validity estimates reduced by .10-.20 points. Structured interviews emerged as the top-ranked selection procedure. We also pair validity estimates with information about mean Black-White subgroup differences per selection procedure, providing information about validity-diversity tradeoffs. We conclude that our selection procedures remain useful, but selection predictor-criterion relationships are considerably lower than previously thought. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).
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Cognitive ability tests (CATs) are used in employee selection and recruitment because they predict workplace performance.
“Cognitive ability tests (CATs) are used as part of selection and recruitment due to their utility in predicting workplace performance (Bertua et al., 2005;Sackett et al., 2022;Schmidt & Hunter, 1998)”
From Factors Related to Mean Score Group Differences on Cognitive Ability Tests: A Systematic Review (2025) · cites this paper as Sackett et al., 2022
Sackett et al. (2022) reported a slightly smaller but still large effect size for Black-White CAT score differences in occupational samples (d = .79).
“A more recent meta-analysis by Sackett and colleagues (2022) reported a slightly smaller but still large effect size when looking at Black-White CAT score differences in occupational samples (d =.79).”
From Factors Related to Mean Score Group Differences on Cognitive Ability Tests: A Systematic Review (2025) · cites this paper as Sackett et al., 2022
Organisations lack highly valid selection methods that do not show group differences.
“This is especially important when considering that organisations lack highly valid selection methods that don't show group differences (Sackett et al., 2022).”
From Factors Related to Mean Score Group Differences on Cognitive Ability Tests: A Systematic Review (2025) · cites this paper as Sackett et al., 2022
AI-assisted hiring probably produces better decisions than most founders do unassisted, unstructured interviewing by founders being among the weaker predictors of job performance in the selection literature.
“AI-assisted hiring probably produces better decisions than most founders do unassisted, unstructured interviewing by founders being among the weaker predictors of job performance in the selection literature.”
From Borrowed Competence: When AI-Driven HR Builds Startups’ People Capability and When It Hollows It Out (2026) · cites this paper as [24]
The classic validity estimates have been revised downward, although the relative standing of structured methods has survived the correction.
“The classic validity estimates have been revised downward, although the relative standing of structured methods have survived the correction [24].”
From Borrowed Competence: When AI-Driven HR Builds Startups’ People Capability and When It Hollows It Out (2026) · cites this paper as [24]
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Factors Related to Mean Score Group Differences on Cognitive Ability Tests: A Systematic Review
Cuppello, S., Zibarras, L. D., & Corr, P. J. (2025) · Trends in Psychology · doi:10.1007/s43076-025-00504-5
Borrowed Competence: When AI-Driven HR Builds Startups’ People Capability and When It Hollows It Out
Ben Oz, R., Granot, N., Tzabbar, D., & Tzafrir, S. (2026) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.7489654
- Authors
- Sackett, P. R., Zhang, C., Berry, C. M., & Lievens, F.
- Venue
- Journal of Applied Psychology
- Published
- 2022-11
- Volume
- 107
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 2040-2068
- ISSN
- 0021-9010 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-1854
- OpenAlex
- W4200365118
- Cited by
- 343
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 79 · 2025: 89 · 2024: 83 · 2023: 67 · 2022: 24 · 2020: 1
- FWCI
- 42.19
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Applied Psychology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Singapore Management University Institutional Knowledge (InK) (Singapore Management University) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management › Employer Branding and e-HRM
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Psychometric Methodologies and Testing
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Medical Education and Admissions
- Keywords
- personnel selection, criterion validity, range restriction correction, overcorrection, artifact distribution, job performance prediction, structured interviews
- MeSH terms
- Work Performance, Humans, Occupations, Personnel Selection
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