Fadeout in an early mathematics intervention: Constraining content or preexisting differences?
Open accessAbstract
A robust finding across research on early childhood educational interventions is that the treatment effect diminishes over time, with children not receiving the intervention eventually catching up to children who did. One popular explanation for fadeout of early mathematics interventions is that elementary school teachers may not teach the kind of advanced content that children are prepared for after receiving the intervention, so lower-achieving children in the control groups of early mathematics interventions catch up to the higher-achieving children in the treatment groups. An alternative explanation is that persistent individual differences in children's long-term mathematical development result more from relatively stable preexisting differences in their skills and environments than from the direct effects of previous knowledge on later knowledge. We tested these 2 hypotheses using data from an effective preschool mathematics intervention previously known to show a diminishing treatment effect over time. We compared the intervention group to a matched subset of the control group with a similar mean and variance of scores at the end of treatment. We then tested the relative contributions of factors that similarly constrain learning in children from treatment and control groups with the same level of posttreatment achievement and preexisting differences between these 2 groups to the fadeout of the treatment effect over time. We found approximately 72% of the fadeout effect to be attributable to preexisting differences between children in treatment and control groups with the same level of achievement at posttest. These differences were fully statistically attenuated by children's prior academic achievement. (PsycINFO Database Record
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In many educational interventions, the majority of follow-up studies have found that any short-term benefits fade over time.
“This contrasts with many educational interventions, where the majority of follow-up studies have found that any short-term benefits fade over time (Bailey et al., 2016;Cascio & Staiger, 2012).”
From Tackling Educational Inequalities with Social Psychology: Identities, Contexts, and Interventions (2021) · cites this paper as Bailey et al., 2016
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Cheah, Z. R. E., McBride, C. A., Dulay, K. M., Cheung, S. K., Reyes, P., & Dillenbourg, P. (2024) · Early Childhood Research Quarterly · doi:10.1016/j.ecresq.2024.05.006 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Hannula‐Sormunen, M. M., McMullen, J. A., & Lehtinen, E. (2021) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-817414-2.00013-0 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Classroom strategy diversity and early mathematical growth across intervention conditions
Dong, Y., Clements, D. H., Dumas, D., & Sarama, J. H. (2023) · Current Psychology · doi:10.1007/s12144-023-05533-w · Cited by 3 · see citing works
“The preexisting differences in domain-general cognitive skills, home conditions, motivation, and other factors contributed to a large portion of the fadeout effect (Bailey et al., 2016 ), and students’ forgetting can also contribute (Kang et al., 2019 ).”
Self-citationJohnson, A. D., Wright, A. M., Martin, A., & Dericks, A. (2025) · Early Childhood Research Quarterly · doi:10.1016/j.ecresq.2025.02.001 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Helping students get IT: Investigating the longitudinal impacts of IT school outreach in Australia
Fletcher, A., Mason, R., & Cooper, G. A. (2021) · Australasian Computing Education Conference · doi:10.1145/3441636.3442312 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
“Fade-out effects have been seen in early childhood interventions [3, 77], educational interventions [12], math-based interventions [4] and literacy programs [77].”
BackgroundResnick, I., Viegut, A. A., Barbieri, C., Newcombe, N. S., & Jordan, N. C. (2026) · Journal of Experimental Child Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jecp.2026.106461 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
“Indeed, a well-documented concern in the field is that early effects often fade, attenuate, or change in character when examined longitudinally (e.g., Bailey et al., 2016; De Smedt et al., 2009; Lavelle-Hill et al., 2024).”
Watts, T. W., Botvin, C. M., Bailey, D. H., Hart, E. R., Mattera, S. K., Clements, D. H., Sarama, J. H., Farran, D. C., & Lipsey, M. W. (2026) · Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis · doi:10.3102/01623737251405258 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationExpected and unexpected long-term effects of values affirmation in school.
Hadden, I. R., Harris, P. R., & Easterbrook, M. (2024) · British Journal of Educational Psychology · doi:10.1111/bjep.12711 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Intelligenz und schulische Leistungen
Siegler, R. S., Saffran, J. R., Gershoff, E. T., & Eisenberg, N. (2021) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-662-62772-3_8 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Intelligenz und schulische Leistungen
Siegler, R. S., Eisenberg, N., DeLoache, J. S., & Saffran, J. R. (2016) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-662-47028-2_8
López-Pedersen, A. (2020) · NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives
Ernst, J. R., Purpura, D. J., Schmitt, S. A., & Duncan, R. J. (2025) · Journal of Applied Developmental Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.appdev.2025.101889
Complexity of parental number talk predicts preschoolers’ gains in cardinal knowledge
Geary, D. C., Şimşek, E., Gable, S., Booker, J. A., Nugent, L. D., & Hoard, M. K. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-025-27405-y
To Grade or Not To Grade? Demystifying a Centuries-Old Debate
Hübner, N., Rutsch, J., Schnelle, A.-K., Herkommer, M., Herbein, E., & Fauth, B. (2026) · Educational Psychology Review · doi:10.1007/s10648-026-10156-1
“…when analyzing data from intervention studies: On the one hand, a variety of researchers have used multilevel models to estimate treatment effects (e.g., Gaspard et al., 2021), whereas other researchers have used single-level models with cluster-robust standard errors (e.g., Bailey et al., 2016).”
Chen, J. Z. (2026) · Educational Technology Research and Development · doi:10.1007/s11423-026-10626-x
“Although some researchers have argued that the effects of early mathematical interventions tend to fade away over time (Bailey et al., 2016), other studies have found that early mathematical interventions can accelerate young children’s learning speed and help them reach their ultimate math ability…”
Little, M., & Rowan, R. (2026) · Early Childhood Education Journal · doi:10.1007/s10643-026-02310-9
“Michael Little 1 · Rachel Rowan 1 with short-term gains in academic, social-emotional, and other developmental outcomes, studies also show that these advantages often converge with those of non-participants by the end of kindergarten (Bailey et al., 2016).”
- Authors
- Bailey, D. H., Nguyen, T., Jenkins, J. M., Domina, T., Clements, D. H., & Sarama, J. S.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Irvine (US)
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
- University of Denver (US)
- Venue
- Developmental Psychology
- Published
- 2016-09
- Volume
- 52
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 1457-1469
- ISSN
- 0012-1649 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-0599
- PMC
- PMC5003741
- OpenAlex
- W2509100329
- Cited by
- 66
- References
- 37
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 2
- FWCI
- 7.09
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Developmental Psychology (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Education (R305K05157 and R305A120813, R305B120013)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (P01HD065704)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Cognitive and developmental aspects of mathematical skills
- Social Sciences › Education › Early Childhood Education and Development
- Social Sciences › Education › Mathematics Education and Teaching Techniques
- Keywords
- early childhood mathematics, treatment effects, prior academic achievement, matched control groups
- MeSH terms
- Achievement, Child Language, Child, Preschool, Educational Measurement, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Individuality, Language Tests, Male, Models, Psychological, Reading, Schools, Socioeconomic Factors, Early Intervention, Educational, Mathematical Concepts
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