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Increasing shrub abundance in the Arctic
Abstract
The warming of the Alaskan Arctic during the past 150 years has accelerated over the last three decades and is expected to increase vegetation productivity in tundra if shrubs become more abundant; indeed, this transition may already be under way according to local plot studies and remote sensing. Here we present evidence for a widespread increase in shrub abundance over more than 320 km of Arctic landscape during the past 50 years, based on a comparison of historic and modern aerial photographs. This expansion will alter the partitioning of energy in summer and the trapping and distribution of snow in winter, as well as increasing the amount of carbon stored in a region that is believed to be a net source of carbon dioxide.
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“Changing vegetation diversity, abundance, composition, and phenology in the Arctic are all well documented (Sturm et al. 2001; Walker et al. 2006; Bjørkman et al. 2020).”
From Muskox status, recent variation, and uncertain future (2020) · cites this paper as Sturm et al. 2001
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Metadata
- Authors
- Sturm, M., Racine, C., & Tape, K.
- Affiliations
- Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (US)
- Corresponding author
- Sturm, Matthew
- ORCID
- Sturm, Matthew
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2001-05
- Volume
- 411
- Issue
- 6837
- Pages
- 546-547
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W1488616880
- Cited by
- 1,349
- References
- 14
- Citations by year
- 2026: 28 · 2025: 29 · 2024: 35 · 2023: 30 · 2022: 57 · 2021: 65 · 2020: 82 · 2019: 47 · 2018: 62 · 2017: 63 · 2016: 71 · 2015: 66 · 2014: 54 · 2013: 81 · 2012: 76
- FWCI
- 22.59
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Climate change and permafrost
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Polar Research and Ecology
- Social Sciences › Anthropology › Indigenous Studies and Ecology
- Keywords
- shrub expansion, Arctic tundra, global warming, vegetation change, aerial photograph comparison, carbon storage, snow trapping, energy allocation, Arctic Alaska
- MeSH terms
- Arctic Regions, Climate, Plants
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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