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Cited by 77Wildlife Ecology and ConservationSpecies Distribution and Climate ChangeIndigenous Studies and Ecology

Muskox status, recent variation, and uncertain future

Open access
Cuyler, Christine, Rowell, Janice, Adamczewski, Jan, Anderson, Morgan, Blake, John, Bretten, Tord, Brodeur, Vincent, Campbell, Mitch +21 more·2020·Ambio
DOI 10.1007/s13280-019-01205-xPMC PMC6989413
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Abstract

Muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) are an integral component of Arctic biodiversity. Given low genetic diversity, their ability to respond to future and rapid Arctic change is unknown, although paleontological history demonstrates adaptability within limits. We discuss status and limitations of current monitoring, and summarize circumpolar status and recent variations, delineating all 55 endemic or translocated populations. Acknowledging uncertainties, global abundance is ca 170 000 muskoxen. Not all populations are thriving. Six populations are in decline, and as recently as the turn of the century, one of these was the largest population in the world, equaling ca 41% of today's total abundance. Climate, diseases, and anthropogenic changes are likely the principal drivers of muskox population change and result in multiple stressors that vary temporally and spatially. Impacts to muskoxen are precipitated by habitat loss/degradation, altered vegetation and species associations, pollution, and harvest. Which elements are relevant for a specific population will vary, as will their cumulative interactions. Our summaries highlight the importance of harmonizing existing data, intensifying long-term monitoring efforts including demographics and health assessments, standardizing and implementing monitoring protocols, and increasing stakeholder engagement/contributions.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This paper compiles circumpolar status and recent variation for all 55 muskox populations, estimating global abundance at ca 170,000 animals. It finds that not all populations are thriving—six are in decline—and identifies climate, disease, and anthropogenic change as major drivers amid major monitoring gaps.

Key findings

  • Global abundance is estimated at ca 170,000 muskoxen, of which 71% are endemic; the compiled table total is ca 168,778.
  • Of 55 populations/regions, recent trends could be suggested for 38: 23 increasing (36.2%, n = 61,104 of global abundance), 9 stable (13.1%, n = 22,164), and 6 decreasing (15.5%, n = 26,185); trends were unknown for 17 populations (35.1%, n = 59,322).
  • Two declining populations, Banks and East Victoria islands in Canada, were once the largest endemic populations in the world: combined they totaled ca 87,000 at the turn of the century but are ca 24,000 today.
  • Translocated/re-introduced animals have all been O.m. wardi; O.m. wardi (e.g., 132,557) now vastly outnumber O.m. moschatus (e.g., 36,221), though endemic muskoxen still outnumber re-introduced/translocated ones (119,479 vs. 49,026).

Methods

  • The authors updated global distribution and origins from Kutz et al. (2017) and compiled current abundance estimates for 55 geographic regions with muskox populations, including all age classes.
  • Most population sizes (80%) were based on surveys within the past decade; 54.5% (n = 30) were from 2016–2019 and 25.5% (n = 14) from 2009–2015.
  • Statistical trend analyses were rarely possible because surveys were often too infrequent, lacked variance estimates, or used different methods/effort; instead, the authors used abundance changes over the last 10 years to suggest possible trends, corroborated by local experts where possible.

Limitations

  • The paper states that survey methods and effort vary, precision differs (e.g., CV averaged 11% for 17 Banks Island estimates but 30% for two mainland surveys), sightability can underestimate abundance, and rigorous statistical trend analyses are impossible without standardized protocols and population definitions.
  • The paper states that demographic monitoring is not widespread, published demographic data are scarce, health/disease monitoring is sporadic, harvest data are scarce, and trends remain unknown for 17 populations.
  • Evident from the text: the circumpolar estimate includes all age classes, so the authors could not provide an estimate of only reproductive adults, which is the IUCN criterion.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1007/s13280-019-01205-x

Cites

64 of 64 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

21 of 80 cited sources checked · 9 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisecitation

    The archeological record, supported by genetic data, provides evidence that muskoxen have been through several population bottlenecks and extirpation events best explained by non-anthropogenic causes, e.g., environmental change.

    “The archeological record, supported by genetic data (MacPhee et al. 2005), provides evidence that muskoxen have been through several population bottlenecks and extirpation events that are best explained by non-anthropogenic causes, e.g., environmental change (Campos et al. 2010).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites MacPhee et al. 2005 source

      The Background (page not specified) links modern muskoxen’s low genetic diversity to a long period of small effective population size or one or more bottlenecks, and describes a history of extirpation and replacement. The Conclusion (page not specified) confirms a loss of genetic diversity but says its timing and conditions cannot be well constrained. MacPhee et al. therefore support the genetic evidence for decline, not a definite history of several bottlenecks and extirpation events. The separate explanation involving non-anthropogenic causes is cited to Campos et al., not MacPhee et al. (LLM, conf=0.85)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Campos et al. 2010 source
  • Premisecitation

    Acute and extensive infectious disease associated summer mortalities in Alaska and Canada coincided with population declines of up to 85%.

    “For example, acute and extensive infectious disease associated summer mortalities in Alaska and Canada coincided with population declines of up to 85% (Kutz et al. 2015; Forde et al. 2016)”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Kutz et al. 2015
    • cites Forde et al. 2016 source

      The Introduction (page unavailable) reports acute disease-associated muskox deaths in the Canadian Arctic, June–August mortality among Alaskan muskoxen, and population declines in parts of Canada. It reports declines of more than 50% for the affected island muskox populations and 50–70% for moose in British Columbia, but does not substantiate the claimed figure of up to 85%. It also says the extent to which the disease-associated deaths contributed to the island population declines is unknown. (LLM, conf=0.87)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Premisecitation

    Outbreaks of Pasteurella spp., Mycoplasma spp., and parapox virus in muskoxen in Dovrefjell, Norway, have been identified in declining populations.

    “and outbreaks of Pasteurella spp., Mycoplasma spp., and parapox virus in muskoxen in the Dovrefjell, Norway, have been identified in declining populations (Ytrehus et al. 2008, 2015; Handeland et al. 2014).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Ytrehus et al. 2008, 2015

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Handeland et al. 2014 source
  • Premisecitation

    Muskoxen are among a handful of Arctic species that survived major shifts in climate.

    “Muskoxen are among a handful of Arctic species that survived major shifts in climate (Raghavan et al. 2014).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Raghavan et al. 2014 source

      The passage on early Paleo-Eskimo hunting mentions musk ox, but does not say the species survived climatic shifts. The Discussion describes Paleo-Eskimo human survival through climatic and ecological cycles, not muskox survival. Searches for musk ox and climate-related survival found no passage supporting the claim. (LLM, conf=0.75)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Premisecitation

    Some northern communities are considering or have begun implementing agricultural practices, including livestock production.

    “Some are considering or have begun implementing agricultural practices, including livestock production (Caviezel et al. 2017).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Caviezel et al. 2017 source
  • May combine two claims. 38
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 28

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Changing pathogen distribution and disease dynamics have been observed with climate-driven range expansion of the lung nematode Umingmakstrongylus pallikuukensis in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, the emergence of parapox virus, and increasing observations of Brucella-like lesions on Victoria Island, Canada.

    “Changing pathogen distribution and disease dynamics have also been observed with climate-driven range expansion of the lung nematode Umingmakstrongylus pallikuukensis in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut (Kutz et al. 2013a, b; Kafle et al. 2017), the emergence of parapox virus, and increasing observations of Brucella-like lesions on Victoria Island, Canada (Tomaselli et al. 2016).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Kutz et al. 2013a, b source
    • cites Kafle et al. 2017 source

      In the Varestrongylus eleguneniensis section (page unavailable), the paper reports a recent range expansion of Umingmakstrongylus pallikuukensis onto Victoria Island, but says Arctic warming is a hypothesized driver, not an established cause. It does not specify expansion across both the Northwest Territories and Nunavut. The parapox and Brucella-like lesion claims are attributed to a different citation in the sentence. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Tomaselli et al. 2016 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    To take advantage of forage quality and accessibility, groups may move between winter and summer ranges, while in other areas habitat heterogeneity allows muskoxen a more sedentary lifestyle.

    “To take advantage of forage quality and accessibility, groups may move between winter and summer ranges (Tener 1960; Gunn and Fournier 2000), while in other areas habitat heterogeneity allows muskoxen a more sedentary lifestyle (Schmidt et al. 2016).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Tener 1960

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Gunn and Fournier 2000

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Schmidt et al. 2016 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Mixed groups will occasionally leave to colonize an entirely different region, even moving across glacial barriers.

    “Mixed groups will occasionally leave to colonize an entirely different region (Cuyler pers. comm.), even moving across glacial barriers (Schmidt et al. 2016).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Cuyler pers. comm.

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Schmidt et al. 2016 source

      The Results report one collared muskox climbing mountains and glaciers above 1,000 m in winter, supporting movement across glacial terrain. They do not establish that a mixed group made that crossing. The separate claim about colonizing a different region is attributed to Cuyler, not Schmidt et al. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The circumpolar estimate of 170,000 is greater than previous estimates of 134,000-137,000 (IUCN 2008), ca 135,000 (Gunn et al. 2013), and 111,000-135,000 (Kutz et al. 2017).

    “Our circumpolar estimate of 170 000 is greater than previous estimates of 134 000–137 000 (IUCN 2008), ca 135 000 (Gunn et al. 2013), and 111 000–135 000 (Kutz et al. 2017), and represents our best approximation given all data ambiguities.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites IUCN 2008

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Gunn et al. 2013

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Kutz et al. 2017 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Historically, wolves were considered the main predator in muskox ecosystems.

    “Historically, wolves (Canis lupus) were considered the main predator in muskox ecosystems (Marquard-Petersen 1998; Gunn and Adamczewski 2003; Mech 2011).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Marquard-Petersen 1998 source
    • cites Gunn and Adamczewski 2003

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Mech 2011 source

      The Results describe wolves killing a muskox calf, and the Discussion describes their feeding on a calf and yearling. These passages support wolves as muskox predators, but the paper does not say they were historically considered the main predator in muskox ecosystems (searched: historical and principal predators). (LLM, conf=0.78)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Landscape-scale changes in vegetation, such as shrubification, affect ecosystems at multiple trophic levels.

    “Landscape-scale changes in vegetation (e.g., shrubification), affect ecosystems at multiple trophic levels (Myers-Smith et al. 2011; Mod and Luoto 2016)”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Myers-Smith et al. 2011 source

      Section 4.3 (page unavailable) reports that increasing shrub cover is associated with changes in tundra plant diversity and discusses possible consequences for food webs and wildlife. It describes effects on caribou, reindeer and other animals as potential, so it does not fully support the claim’s unqualified assertion of effects across multiple trophic levels. (LLM, conf=0.82)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Mod and Luoto 2016 source

      The ‘Variation across landscape’ section reports that shrubification changes predicted plant species richness, turnover, and local extinction risk across the test area. The paper addresses vegetation, but the cited passages do not establish effects at multiple trophic levels. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Changing vegetation diversity, abundance, composition, and phenology in the Arctic are well documented.

    “Changing vegetation diversity, abundance, composition, and phenology in the Arctic are all well documented (Sturm et al. 2001; Walker et al. 2006; Bjørkman et al. 2020).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Sturm et al. 2001 source
    • cites Walker et al. 2006 source
    • cites Bjørkman et al. 2020 source

      The Introduction and Results (page numbers unavailable) document studies of Arctic vegetation composition, abundance, and phenology. But the Introduction says published observations of diversity change are relatively scarce, and “Other vegetation trends: functional traits and diversity” calls the evidence mixed. The source therefore does not support saying that changes in all four attributes are well documented. (LLM, conf=0.87)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Food insecurity in northern communities is a growing concern and a significant public health problem.

    “Food insecurity in northern communities is a growing concern and a significant public health problem (Ruscio et al. 2015).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ruscio et al. 2015 source

      In “The grand challenge of Arctic health” (page unavailable), the paper identifies potential declines in food quality and availability as health risks for Arctic populations. It does not establish that food insecurity is already a significant public health problem in northern communities or that its prevalence is growing. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    As recently as the turn of the century, one of the declining populations was the largest population in the world, equaling ca 41% of today's total abundance.

    “as recently as the turn of the century, one of these was the largest population in the world, equaling ca 41% of today’s total abundance.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The 55 geographic regions used in the compilation correspond to meaningful muskox populations for global abundance estimation.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Two of the declining populations, Banks and East Victoria islands in Canada, were once the largest endemic populations in the world; at the turn of the century they combined totaled ca 87,000 muskoxen, but today they are ca 24,000.

    “It is worth noting that two of the declining populations were once the largest endemic populations in the world, i.e., Banks and East Victoria islands in Canada. At the turn of the century, these two combined totaled ca 87 000 muskoxen, but today they are ca 24 000”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given

    Muskox populations inhabit a range extending from sub- to high Arctic (56°-83°N) environments.

    “Today, muskox populations (endemic and translocated/re-introduced) inhabit a range that extends from sub- to high Arctic (56°–83°N) environments (Fig. 1).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Nine populations appear stable and six decreasing, representing 13.1% (n=22,164) and 15.5% (n=26,185), respectively, of present global abundance.

    “Similarly, nine populations appear stable and six decreasing, representing 13.1% (n = 22 164) and 15.5% (n = 26 185), respectively, of present global abundance.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Recent variation over the last 10 years can be used to suggest possible population trends.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Of the 38 populations with suggested trends, 23 appear to be increasing, representing 36.2% (n=61,104) of present global abundance.

    “Of these, 23 appear to be increasing. These represent 36.2% (n = 61 104) of present global abundance.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Recent variation over the last 10 years can be used to suggest possible population trends.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given

    Occasionally, a stable or decreasing population trend is the result of wildlife management interventions designed around specific goals (e.g., Nunivak Island and Ivittuut).

    “Occasionally, a stable or decreasing population trend is the result of wildlife management interventions designed around specific goals (e.g., Nunivak Island and Ivittuut respectively, see Electronic Supplementary Materials S1, Muskoxen: Past and present).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    The coefficient of variation (CV) for 17 estimates on Banks Island averaged 11% but was 30% for two surveys on the mainland (Queen Maud Gulf coast, Canada).

    “For example, the coefficient of variation (CV) for 17 estimates on Banks Island (Canada) averaged 11% but was 30% for two surveys on the mainland (Queen Maud Gulf coast, Canada).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    The combined number of re-introduced, translocated, and endemic O.m. wardi (e.g., 132,557) now vastly outnumber O.m. moschatus (e.g., 36,221), which remain confined primarily to mainland Canada.

    “The combined number of re-introduced, translocated, and endemic O.m. wardi (e.g., 132 557) now vastly outnumber O.m. moschatus (e.g., 36 221), which remain confined primarily to mainland Canada.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Some muskox populations are in decline (e.g., Banks and Victoria islands), while others have expanded their range or experienced increases typical of translocated populations.

    “While some populations are in decline (e.g., Banks and Victoria islands), others have expanded their range or experienced increases typical of translocated populations”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Translocations over the past century have resulted in a circumpolar distribution of muskoxen, and all re-introduced/translocated animals have been O.m. wardi.

    “Translocations over the past century have resulted in a circumpolar distribution of muskoxen, and all re-introduced/translocated animals have been O.m. wardi”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    There are currently seven muskox populations living in CAFF's designated Sub Arctic Zone, and a further two that live in non-arctic zones.

    “There are currently seven muskox populations living in CAFF’s designated Sub Arctic Zone, and a further two that live in non-arctic zones (Fig. 1, Table 1).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Climate, diseases, and anthropogenic changes are likely the principal drivers of muskox population change and result in multiple stressors that vary temporally and spatially.

    “Climate, diseases, and anthropogenic changes are likely the principal drivers of muskox population change and result in multiple stressors that vary temporally and spatially.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Impacts to muskoxen are precipitated by habitat loss/degradation, altered vegetation and species associations, pollution, and harvest.

    “Impacts to muskoxen are precipitated by habitat loss/degradation, altered vegetation and species associations, pollution, and harvest.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Detection (sightability) of muskoxen present on a survey line varies and is affected by distance from survey line, group size, terrain features, weather conditions, background, animal movements, observer ability, fatigue, and airsickness; poor sightability can underestimate population abundance.

    “Additionally, detection (sightability) of muskoxen present on a survey line varies.”
    • Also stated in: § Abundance · plain
      “Poor sightability can underestimate population abundance.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    Estimates, counts, and recent variation were corroborated by local experts wherever possible.

    “Estimates, counts, and recent variation were corroborated by local experts (regional biologists, research scientists) wherever possible (Electronic Supplementary Materials, Muskoxen: Past and present, and Excel Table S3).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Expert corroboration wherever possible improves the validity of estimates and trends.

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    Over half of population sizes were monitored recently, 54.5% (n=30) in 2016-2019 and 25.5% (n=14) in 2009-2015.

    “Further, over half of these were monitored recently, i.e., in the period 2016–2019 (54.5%; n = 30) and 25.5% (n = 14) within 2009–2015.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Group composition varies depending on season, which confounds comparison of sex and age structure surveys.

    “Additionally, group composition varies depending on season (Schmidt et al. 2015), which confounds comparison of sex and age structure surveys.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Schmidt et al. 2015 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Which elements are relevant for a specific population will vary, as will their cumulative interactions.

    “Which elements are relevant for a specific population will vary, as will their cumulative interactions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Sample counts using line or strip transects are commonly used to estimate muskox abundance, but area coverage varies and so does precision.

    “Sample counts using line or strip transects are commonly used to estimate muskox abundance. However, area coverage varies and so does precision.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Recent variation/trend was labeled unknown if the estimate/count was older than 10 years, a recent once-only effort, or involved ≤20 individuals and additional expert knowledge was unavailable.

    “Recent variation/trend was labeled unknown if the estimate/count was older than 10 years, a recent once-only effort, or involved ≤ 20 individuals and additional expert knowledge was unavailable.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Study design and conductnone given

    The necessary ground-based surveys, ideally incorporating telemetry, are logistically difficult and usually expensive.

    “The necessary ground-based surveys, ideally incorporating the use of telemetry (collared animals), are logistically difficult and usually expensive.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The compiled abundance surveys commonly gave estimates that contained all age classes, so the paper was unable to provide a circumpolar estimate of only reproductive adults, although this is the criterion implemented by IUCN.

    “The compiled abundance surveys commonly gave estimates that contained all age classes. Thus, we were unable to provide a circumpolar estimate of only reproductive adults, although this is the criterion implemented by IUCN.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites IUCN

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    These extreme weather events can reduce feed availability and increase the energetic cost of foraging, which may lead to increased mortality and decreased calf recruitment.

    “All can reduce feed availability and increase the energetic cost of foraging, which may lead to increased mortality and decreased calf recruitment (Parker et al. 1975; Gunn and Adamczewski 2003; Miller and Barry 2009).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Parker et al. 1975

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Gunn and Adamczewski 2003

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Miller and Barry 2009 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The natural mortality rate for adults is unknown, although it may be approximated for a specific population if average life expectancy is available.

    “The natural mortality rate for adults, although unknown, may be approximated for a specific population if average life expectancy is available.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Two subspecies O.m. wardi and O.m. moschatus are commonly recognized and recent studies have identified genetic separation between them.

    “Two subspecies, O.m. wardi and O.m. moschatus, are commonly recognized and referred to as ‘White-Faced’ and ‘Barren-Ground,’ respectively (van Coeverden de Groot 2001), and recent studies have identified genetic separation between the two (Hansen et al. 2018).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites van Coeverden de Groot 2001

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Hansen et al. 2018 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Present day muskoxen are challenged by low genetic variability and extremely low diversity in the major histocompatibility complex, potentially impacting their ability to respond to infectious disease.

    “This has left present day muskoxen challenged by low genetic variability (Hansen et al. 2018) and extremely low diversity in the major histocompatibility complex, potentially impacting their ability to respond to infectious disease (Gordeeva et al. 2009; Cooley et al. 2011; Thulin et al. 2011).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Hansen et al. 2018 source
    • cites Gordeeva et al. 2009 source
    • cites Cooley et al. 2011

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    The ultimate influence of drivers and stressors on muskox populations is how these affect vital rates for calf births, calf survival, and adult survival; these three rates are integral to population trends.

    “The ultimate influence of drivers and stressors on muskox populations is how these affect vital rates for calf births, calf survival, and adult survival. These three rates are integral to population trends.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The Arctic has been warming twice as fast as the rest of the world for the past 50 years, creating a climate that is warmer, wetter, and increasingly more variable.

    “For the past 50 years, the Arctic has been warming twice as fast as the rest of the world creating a climate that today is warmer, wetter, and increasingly more variable (AMAP 2017).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites AMAP 2017

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    Studies to date involve only small populations, or areas of high density.

    “Studies to date involve only small populations, or areas of high density.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    Recent trends are unknown for 17 populations (35.1%; n=59,322), making it difficult to interpret the true impact of declines relative to the total global population.

    “The fact that recent trends are unknown for a further 17 populations (35.1%; n = 59 322) makes it difficult to interpret the true impact of these declines relative to the total global population.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    Muskox ranges are remote and cover vast areas, often crossing jurisdictional boundaries; few are near human settlements or airports, making aerial surveys expensive and logistically difficult.

    “Muskox ranges are remote and cover vast areas, often crossing jurisdictional boundaries. Few are near human settlements or airports, making aerial surveys expensive and logistically difficult.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The absence of standardization of field methods makes rigorous statistical trend analyses impossible.

    “Recognizing these difficulties, the goal remains a standardization of field methods, the absence of which makes rigorous statistical trend analyses impossible.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Knowledge about muskox demographics is hard to obtain, as demographic monitoring is not widespread and published data are scarce.

    “Knowledge about muskox demographics is however hard to obtain, as demographic monitoring is not widespread and published data are scarce.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Although generally not considered migratory, seasonal distributions of muskoxen can span broad geographic regions.

    “Although generally not considered migratory, seasonal distributions of muskoxen can span broad geographic regions (Fig. 1).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationnone given

    Which elements become critical for a specific muskox population will vary and depend on a host of local interacting variables, which may be difficult to predict or mitigate.

    “Which elements become critical for a specific population will vary and depend on a host of local interacting variables, which may be difficult to predict or mitigate, e.g., stochastic weather events.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    A market economy can drive population changes, either by exerting a negative downward pressure or by encouraging northern communities to consider the economic potential and thus bolster conservation efforts.

    “A market economy can drive population changes, either by exerting a negative downward pressure (Berger et al. 2013), or by encouraging northern communities to consider the economic potential, and thus bolster conservation efforts.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Berger et al. 2013 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Livestock production in northern communities creates a new source of competition for muskox food resources and avenues for the introduction of novel pathogens.

    “Livestock creates a new source of competition for muskox food resources, and avenues for the introduction of novel pathogens.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Although illegal in Greenland, killing muskoxen for just their winter skins, and out-of-season harvesting using prohibited methods occurs.

    “Although illegal in Greenland, killing muskoxen for just their winter skins, and out-of-season harvesting using prohibited methods occurs (Cuyler pers. comm.)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Cuyler pers. comm.

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Landscape-scale changes in vegetation have generated concerns about trophic mismatch.

    “and have generated concerns about trophic mismatch (Kirby and Post 2013).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Kirby and Post 2013 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Local conditions such as availability of shade, shallow water for wading, and snow patches may mitigate the effects of warm ambient temperatures on muskoxen.

    “Local conditions, like availability of shade, shallow water for wading, and snow patches, may mitigate the effects of warm ambient temperatures (Cuyler pers. comm.).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Cuyler pers. comm.

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    We generally lack effective user-friendly models to determine sustainable harvesting levels and thresholds.

    “We also generally lack effective user-friendly models to determine sustainable harvesting levels and thresholds (Cuyler pers. comm.).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Cuyler pers. comm.

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The role of insect harassment on caribou ecology is relatively well documented.

    “Although the role of insect harassment on caribou ecology is relatively well documented (Raponi et al. 2018)”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Raponi et al. 2018 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Climate, diseases, and anthropogenic changes, singly or in interaction, constitute the major foreseeable challenges for muskoxen.

    “Climate, diseases, and anthropogenic changes, singly or any interaction thereof, constitute the major foreseeable challenges for muskoxen.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Expanding tourism provides new economic opportunities to northern residents but is also associated with serious challenges including environmental degradation and increasing problems with waste disposal and pollution from greater ship and air traffic.

    “While expanding tourism provides new economic opportunities to northern residents, it is also associated with serious challenges, including but not limited to, environmental degradation and increasing problems with waste disposal and pollution from greater ship and air traffic (CAFF 2013).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites CAFF 2013

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The impact of increasing frequency, distribution, severity, and extent of stochastic events on population dynamics remains a serious knowledge gap for this species.

    “The impact of increasing frequency, distribution, severity, and extent of stochastic events on population dynamics remains a serious knowledge gap for this species.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
53 of 53

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The 55 geographic regions used in the compilation correspond to meaningful muskox populations for global abundance estimation.

    “We compiled current abundance estimates for the 55 geographic regions with muskox populations (Table 1).”
    “The boundaries provided often reflect administrative or political regions rather than specific muskox populations and their actual distribution within a region.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Summing regional abundance estimates across different survey methods and coverage yields a valid global abundance estimate.

    “Despite the limitations and inconsistencies in the data, our best approximation of current global abundance is 170 000 muskoxen”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Recent variation over the last 10 years can be used to suggest possible population trends.

    “Thus, we provide the most recent abundance estimate (Table 1), and used abundance changes over the last 10 years (Electronic Supplementary Materials, Excel Table S3) to reveal recent variation, suggesting possible trends (Fig. 2).”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Expert corroboration wherever possible improves the validity of estimates and trends.

    “Estimates, counts, and recent variation were corroborated by local experts (regional biologists, research scientists) wherever possible”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Global demand for qiviut wool will continue rising.

    “Assuming global demand for qiviut wool will continue rising”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Shifts in temperature and precipitation regimes are predicted for the Arctic and may influence muskox reproduction and survival.

    “Shifts in temperature and precipitation regimes are predicted for the Arctic, and carry the possibility of influencing muskox reproduction and survival.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Changing patterns of infectious and non-infectious disease have been documented across several muskox populations in the last decade.

    “Changing patterns of infectious and non-infectious disease have been documented across several muskox populations in the last decade.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    A consequence of warming temperatures in the Arctic is the overall increase in human activity, especially in previously inaccessible habitats.

    “A consequence of warming temperatures in the Arctic is the overall increase in human activity, especially in previously inaccessible habitats.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The role of insect harassment in muskox ecology is not well documented.

    “their role in muskox ecology is not.”
9 of 9

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 6

  1. Jones, P. 2015. Unit 18 muskox. In Muskox management report of survey and inventory activities 1 July 2012–30 June 2014. ed. P. Harper and L.A. McCarthy, Chapter 1, 1–7. Juneau, AK: Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Species Management Report ADF&G/DWC/SMR-2015-2.
  2. Miller, F.L., and R.H. Russell. 1975. Aerial surveys of Peary caribou and muskoxen on Bathurst Island, Northwest Territories, 1973 and 1974. Progress Notes, Canadian Wildlife Service 44: 1–8.
  3. Murray, J.L. 1991. Biomass allocation and nutrient pool in major muskoxen-grazed communities in Sverdrup Pass (75°N), Ellesmere Island, N.W.T. MS Thesis. Toronto, Canada: University of Toronto.
  4. Reynolds, P.E., H.V. Reynolds, and R.T. Shideler. 2002. Predation and multiple kills of muskoxen by grizzly bears. Ursus 13: 789.
  5. Tener, J.S. 1965. Muskoxen: A biological and taxonomic review. Canadian Wildlife Service Monograph Serial Number 2. Department of Northern of Affairs and Natural Resources, Ottawa, Canada.
  6. van Coeverden de Groot, P.J. 2001. Conservation Genetic Implications of Microsatellite Variation in the Muskox Ovibos moschatus: the Effect of Refugial Isolation and the Arctic Ocean on Genetic Structure. PhD Thesis. Kingston, Ontario, Canada: Queen’s University.

Cited by

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Related

Authors
Cuyler, C., Rowell, J., Adamczewski, J., Anderson, M., Blake, J., Bretten, T., Brodeur, V., Campbell, M., Checkley, S. L., Cluff, H. D., Côté, S. D., Davison, T., Dumond, M., Ford, B., Gruzdev, A., Gunn, A., Jones, P., Kutz, S., Leclerc, L.-M., Mallory, C., Mavrot, F., Mosbacher, J. B., Okhlopkov, I. M., Reynolds, P., Schmidt, N. M., Sipko, T., Suitor, M., Tomaselli, M., & Ytrehus, B.
Affiliations
  • Grønlands Naturinstitut (GL)
  • University of Alaska Fairbanks (US)
  • Government of Northwest Territories (CA)
  • Ministry of Forests (CA)
  • Norwegian Environment Agency (NO)
  • Ministère des Ressources naturelles et des Forêts (CA)
  • Government of Nunavut (CA)
  • University of Calgary (CA)
  • Center for Northern Studies (CA)
  • Makivik Corporation (CA)
  • Alaska Department of Fish and Game (US)
  • Russian Academy of Sciences (RU)
  • Aarhus University (DK)
  • Polar Knowledge Canada
  • Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NO)
Corresponding author
  • Cuyler, Christine
  • Rowell, Janice
ORCID
Venue
Ambio
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2019-06-11
Volume
49
Issue
3
Pages
805-819
ISSN
  • 0044-7447 (ISSN-L)
  • 1654-7209
DOI
10.1007/s13280-019-01205-x
PMC
PMC6989413
OpenAlex
W2951479547
Cited by
77
References
64
Citations by year
2026: 4 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 3
FWCI
6.19
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • AMBIO (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Federal Open Science Repository of Canada / Le Dépôt fédéral de science ouverte du Canada (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
  • Arctic Institute of North America
  • Pinngortitaleriffik
  • University of Calgary
  • Environment and Climate Change Canada
  • Directorate for Biological Sciences
  • Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Calgary
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
  • Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Indigenous Studies and Ecology
Keywords
Ovibos moschatus, Arctic biodiversity, population status, population decline (ecology), translocated populations, genetic diversity, climate change impacts, disease, habitat loss, pollution, harvest, long-term monitoring, multiple stressors
MeSH terms
Animals, Arctic Regions, Ruminants, Ecosystem, Uncertainty, Biodiversity

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-10.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-10.

Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

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